Jalen Johnson is putting up All-Star numbers, but can he carry the Hawks to a cover on the road against a surging Hornets squad? Bryan Bash delivers his free pick and key betting tips for a matchup featuring two of the league’s most explosive young rotations.
The Setup: Hawks at Hornets
The Hawks are laying 5 points (Everygame Line) at Charlotte with Trae Young questionable and Kristaps Porzingis already ruled out? The books are begging you to take Atlanta here, and I’m not falling for it. Look, the Hawks are 15-12 and sitting seventh in the East, but strip away the big names and look at what’s actually on the court tonight. Jalen Johnson’s been carrying the load at 22.8 PPG, 10.5 rebounds, and 8.2 assists, but if Young sits, you’re asking one guy to do everything against a Charlotte team that just dropped 119 on Cleveland in overtime. The Hornets are 8-18, sure, but rookie Kon Knueppel just hung 29 on the Cavs, Brandon Miller added 25, and Miles Bridges is averaging 21.3 per game. That’s three legitimate scoring threats at home getting five points. Sharp money knows what’s up here—this number should be closer to 3, maybe 3.5. At 5, the market’s disrespecting Charlotte’s offensive firepower, and I’m taking the points all day long.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 18, 2025, 7:00 ET
Location: Spectrum Center
Spread: Hawks -5.0 (-110) | Hornets +5.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Hawks -200 | Hornets +160
Total: Over/Under 240.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Vegas is selling you a narrative, not reality. The Hawks are 15-12 with a better conference rank at seventh versus Charlotte’s twelfth, and the oddsmakers know casual bettors see those records and think it’s an easy cover. But here’s what they’re not telling you: Atlanta is just 5-6 at home while Charlotte has actually been better at Spectrum Center than on the road at 5-8 versus 3-10. The public’s all over Atlanta because they see the names—Young, Porzingis—but Porzingis is out for at least two more weeks with an illness, and Young is questionable with a knee issue. Meanwhile, the Hornets just came off a statement road win against Cleveland where Knueppel and Miller combined for 54 points. That’s not a fluke, that’s two young studs finding their rhythm. The -200 moneyline on Atlanta is begging you to lay the juice, but I’m looking at a Hawks team without their two highest-paid players potentially, going on the road—wait, they’re actually the road team here despite being favored. The market’s banking on reputation over current reality, and that’s exactly where value lives. This is exactly the spot where Atlanta burns you if you’re not paying attention to who’s actually suiting up.
Hawks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Let’s talk about what Atlanta actually has available tonight. Jalen Johnson is putting up monster numbers—22.8 points, 10.5 boards, and 8.2 assists per game. That’s legitimate triple-double threat territory, and he’s been the most consistent Hawk all season. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is chipping in 20.4 PPG with 3.4 assists, giving them a secondary scorer. But here’s the problem: Porzingis is out, and he was averaging 19.2 PPG and 5.6 rebounds. That’s a massive hole in their frontcourt. If Trae Young sits, you’re losing another 20+ points per game and your primary facilitator. The Hawks are 10-6 on the road, which is actually impressive, but they’ve been a .500 team at home. Dyson Daniels had 27 and 10 in their last game against Philly, and Onyeka Okongwu added 20 and 15, so there’s depth here. But asking role players to cover five points on the road without your stars? That’s a tall order. The injury report has N’Faly Dante in concussion protocol too, further thinning the frontcourt rotation. This is a team running on fumes if Young can’t go.
Hornets Breakdown: The Other Side
Charlotte is dangerous, and nobody’s talking about it. Miles Bridges is averaging 21.3 PPG and 6.3 rebounds, giving them a veteran presence. LaMelo Ball is putting up 19.4 points and 8.5 assists per game, and when he’s running the show, this offense hums. But the real story is Kon Knueppel, the fourth overall pick, who’s averaging 19.0 PPG and just dropped back-to-back big games including that 29-point explosion in Cleveland. Brandon Miller added 25 in that same game, and suddenly you’ve got four guys who can get you 20 on any given night. Yes, they’re 8-18 overall and just 5-8 at home, but they’re 3-10 on the road, which means Spectrum Center is where they’re most comfortable. They’ve got injuries too—Pat Connaughton, Tre Mann, and Collin Sexton are all out—but their core scoring trio is healthy and rolling. The Hornets just beat Cleveland in overtime on the road, which is no small feat. I’ve seen this movie before: young team with nothing to lose, playing at home, getting disrespected by the market. That’s when they bite you.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to depth and health. If Trae Young plays, Atlanta has the edge in pure talent, but if he sits, this becomes a coin flip that Vegas is asking you to lay 5 points on. The Hornets have the home-court advantage at Spectrum Center, and they’ve shown they can score with anybody when Knueppel, Miller, Ball, and Bridges are all clicking. Atlanta’s 10-6 road record is solid, but five of those six losses came in situations just like this—against teams they were supposed to beat. The total is set at 240.0, which tells you the books expect both teams to run. With Johnson facilitating for Atlanta and Ball running the show for Charlotte, we should see plenty of possessions. The key matchup is whether Atlanta’s depleted frontcourt can contain Bridges and Miller on the wings. Without Porzingis protecting the rim and Young potentially out, the Hawks lose their two best defensive communicators. Charlotte’s been better at home all season, and they’re coming off a confidence-building road win. Atlanta’s playing their third game in five nights if you count the Philly game, and fatigue could be a factor late.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering the Hornets +5.0 before this line moves. If Trae Young is out, this number could drop to 3.5 or even 3, and I want the full five points. Charlotte at home with three legitimate scorers getting a free bucket? That’s value all day. The Hawks are banged up, potentially without their two best players, and the market is still asking them to cover five on the road. The Hornets just proved they can win away from home against a better opponent in Cleveland, so what do you think they’ll do at Spectrum Center with the crowd behind them? I’m putting 2 units on Hornets +5.0 and feeling great about it. If you want to get spicy, sprinkle half a unit on the Hornets moneyline at +160—that’s robbery if Young sits. This is exactly the trap game where everyone takes the “better” team and gets burned. Vegas knows something we don’t, but I’m not buying it. Give me Charlotte, give me the points, and give me the cash. Hawks might win, but they’re not covering five. Book it.
