With Nikola Jokic sidelined, the Denver Nuggets host the new-look Atlanta Hawks at Ball Arena. Our expert analysis breaks down why this thin point spread offers a unique opportunity for bettors to find an edge in the Western Conference showdown.
The Setup: Hawks at Nuggets
The Hawks are getting +1.5 (MyBookie) at Ball Arena on Friday night, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Denver’s 25-12, Atlanta’s 18-21, and the Nuggets are at home. But here’s the thing — Nikola Jokic is out with a knee injury that’s expected to sideline him through most of January, and now Jonas Valanciunas and Cameron Johnson are also unavailable. Meanwhile, Atlanta just traded Trae Young to Washington and responded by having seven players score in double figures in a blowout win over New Orleans.
Let me walk you through why this line exists at just 1.5 points, and more importantly, why I think it’s actually undervaluing what Atlanta brings into this spot. Denver’s still getting home respect, and the market hasn’t fully adjusted to how dramatically this Nuggets rotation has been compromised. When you’re missing your three-time MVP, your starting center replacement, and a key wing rotation piece, laying even a short number starts to feel generous — especially against a Hawks team that’s actually been better on the road (11-10) than at home (7-11) this season.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 9, 2026, 9:00 ET
Venue: Ball Arena
Spread: Denver Nuggets -1.5 (-110) | Atlanta Hawks +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Denver Nuggets -122 | Atlanta Hawks +100
Total: 235.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
Denver opened as a 1.5-point favorite because the market is still giving them credit for being the third-ranked team in the Western Conference at 25-12, and they’re at home where they’re 10-5 this season. The Nuggets also just pulled off an impressive road win in Boston, with Jamal Murray dropping 22 points and 17 assists and Peyton Watson exploding for 30 points in Jokic’s absence.
But once you dig into the matchup data, that Boston game becomes less about sustainable excellence and more about a one-off performance in a rivalry spot. Watson averaging 30 points isn’t repeatable — he’s not even among Denver’s top three scorers for the season. Murray’s been excellent at 25.3 PPG and 7.5 APG, and Aaron Gordon provides 18.4 PPG, but without Jokic’s 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists per game, this offense loses its entire structural foundation.
Atlanta’s getting 1.5 points because they’re 18-21 and just traded their franchise player. But the market might be overreacting to the Trae Young trade. Young was already doubtful and had missed six straight games with a bruised quad. The Hawks just proved they can function without him, beating New Orleans 117-100 with Zaccharie Risacher scoring 25 points and Jalen Johnson continuing his breakout season. Johnson’s averaging 23.5 PPG, 10.3 RPG, and 8.3 APG — those are legitimate first-option numbers. Add in Nickeil Alexander-Walker at 20.4 PPG, and Atlanta’s got two legitimate scoring threats who’ve already adjusted to life without Young.
Hawks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Atlanta’s 11-10 on the road, which tells you they’re actually more comfortable away from home this season. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this team’s identity has shifted. They’ve been better when the pressure’s off and they can play loose, and trading Young might actually accelerate that dynamic rather than hurt it.
Jalen Johnson is the real story here. At 23.5 points, 10.3 boards, and 8.3 assists per game, he’s emerged as a legitimate triple-double threat every night. That kind of versatility creates matchup problems, especially against a Denver team that’s now playing DaRon Holmes and Zeke Nnaji at center. Johnson can attack smaller defenders in the post and facilitate from the elbow against bigger, slower bigs.
Alexander-Walker gives them a second scoring option at 20.4 PPG, and the depth chart showed out in that New Orleans game with seven double-figure scorers. That’s not a team that’s going to collapse without Trae Young — that’s a team that’s been preparing for this transition and might actually be more balanced because of it.
The main concern is whether Atlanta can sustain offensive efficiency without a true floor general, but Johnson’s 8.3 assists per game suggest he’s capable of running the offense through the high post.
Nuggets Breakdown: The Other Side
Denver’s 25-12 record is impressive, but it’s been built almost entirely on the back of Jokic’s MVP-caliber season. At 29.6 PPG, 12.2 RPG, and 11.0 APG, he’s been the engine for everything this team does offensively. Without him, the Nuggets lose their primary scorer, their best passer, their best rebounder, and their entire offensive identity.
Murray and Gordon are both excellent players — Murray’s 25.3 points and 7.5 assists make him a legitimate lead guard, and Gordon’s 18.4 PPG provides secondary scoring. But neither of them can replicate what Jokic does as a hub. The Nuggets’ offense runs through Jokic’s ability to operate from the high post and make every read. Without that, Denver becomes a much more traditional pick-and-roll team, and that’s not where Murray’s at his best.
The win in Boston was impressive, but Peyton Watson scoring 30 points isn’t something you can project forward. He’s not a 30-point scorer, and expecting that kind of outlier performance again would be reckless. More likely, Denver’s going to lean heavily on Murray and Gordon, and that’s a much thinner margin than usual.
The injuries to Valanciunas and Cameron Johnson make this even worse. Valanciunas was supposed to be the Jokic replacement, and now he’s out too. That means Denver’s rolling with Holmes and Nnaji at center, and neither of those guys can provide anything close to Jokic’s production. Johnson’s absence removes another rotation piece and forces guys like Tim Hardaway and Bruce Brown into bigger roles.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests because Atlanta’s got the personnel to exploit Denver’s compromised frontcourt. Johnson can operate in the post against smaller defenders or facilitate against slower bigs. The Nuggets don’t have anyone who can match his combination of size, skill, and playmaking.
Denver’s 10-5 at home, but that home-court advantage was built with Jokic on the floor. Without him, Ball Arena doesn’t carry the same weight. The Nuggets are going to try to push pace and get Murray in transition, but Atlanta’s actually been solid on the road this year at 11-10, which suggests they’re comfortable in hostile environments.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. Denver’s offense loses its most efficient player, its best passer, and its primary hub. Atlanta’s offense might actually improve without Young dominating the ball, especially with Johnson and Alexander-Walker both capable of creating their own shots. When you do the math over 96 possessions, Denver’s margin for error shrinks dramatically.
The total sitting at 235.5 makes sense given both teams have capable offensive players, but without Jokic’s scoring and playmaking, I’d expect Denver to struggle to reach their usual offensive ceiling. Atlanta’s got enough firepower with Johnson and Alexander-Walker to keep pace, but this feels more like a grind-it-out game in the 220s than a shootout.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Atlanta Hawks +1.5 (-110) for 2 units, and I’m also sprinkling the moneyline at +100 for 0.5 units. This line exists because Denver’s getting home respect and Atlanta just traded their franchise player, but the market hasn’t fully adjusted to how dramatically these rosters have shifted.
Denver without Jokic, Valanciunas, and Cameron Johnson isn’t the same team that’s 25-12. Atlanta without Trae Young might actually be more balanced, and they’ve already proven they can win without him. Johnson’s 23.5 PPG and 8.3 APG give them a legitimate first option, and Alexander-Walker’s 20.4 PPG provides secondary scoring.
The main risk here is Murray going nuclear and carrying Denver to a win, but even in the Boston game where he had 22 and 17, the Nuggets only won by four. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. Give me the Hawks getting a short number in a spot where they’re being undervalued.
The Play: Atlanta Hawks +1.5 (-110) | 2 Units
Sprinkle: Atlanta Hawks ML (+100) | 0.5 Units
