Phoenix’s home dominance and Atlanta’s injury issues set the stage for a sharp betting angle in this Hawks vs Suns matchup. Here’s how the numbers shape tonight’s pick and prediction.
The Setup: Hawks at Suns
The books have the Hawks as 1.5-point road favorites against the Suns in Phoenix, and I’m telling you right now — the market is disrespecting Phoenix at home. Both teams roll in at 8-5, but the Suns are 6-1 at Mortgage Matchup Center while Atlanta is just 2-3 on the road. Vegas knows something here, and I’m buying what they’re selling.
The Suns just dismantled the Pacers 133-98 on Wednesday, shooting over 60% from the field with Devin Booker dropping 33 and Dillon Brooks adding 32. They’re riding a five-game win streak and haven’t lost at home all season except for one game. Meanwhile, the Hawks are coming off a 132-122 road win in Utah where Jalen Johnson went absolutely nuclear with 31-18-14 and seven steals. But here’s the thing — they won’t shoot 24 threes again, and they’re dealing with some serious injury concerns.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Sunday, November 16, 2025 at 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ
- Spread: Atlanta -1.5 (-110) / Phoenix +1.5 (-110)
- Total: O/U 232.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -125 / Phoenix +105
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The books are begging you to take Atlanta here, and it’s a classic trap. The Hawks average 117.1 PPG and allow 113.4 PPG on the season, giving them a solid +3.7 scoring margin. But here’s where it gets interesting — Phoenix averages 118.5 PPG and allows 113.6 PPG for a +4.9 margin. The Suns are actually the better team by the numbers, yet they’re getting points at home?
This is exactly the spot where Atlanta burns you. The Hawks are 7-6 ATS on the season but only 2-3 ATS at home and 5-3 ATS on the road. Phoenix? They’re 9-4 ATS overall and a perfect 7-0 ATS at home. Sharp money knows what’s up here — the Suns haven’t covered at home yet because they keep winning straight up by double digits.
The total at 232.5 is intriguing too. Atlanta’s games are averaging around 230 total points, while Phoenix’s home games have been hitting that number consistently. With both teams ranking in the top half of the league in pace and scoring, this number screams over — but the Suns’ defense at home (106.0 PPG allowed) might keep this tighter than expected.
Atlanta Hawks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Hawks are rolling with four straight wins, but they’re doing it with smoke and mirrors. Trae Young is out with an MCL sprain and won’t be re-evaluated until November 30. That’s a massive hole in their offense, even though Jalen Johnson has been absolutely carrying them. Johnson is averaging 21.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 6.3 assists on the season — those are all-star numbers.
Atlanta shoots 48.2% from the field (#10 in NBA) and 37.0% from three (#13), which are solid marks. They’re assisting on 71% of their field goals (3rd in the league) and averaging 30.1 assists per game. But here’s the problem: they’re 26th in offensive rebounding and their road defense allows 112.0 PPG. Without Young running the show, they’re relying heavily on ball movement and hot shooting — and those things don’t travel well.
Kristaps Porzingis is back and averaging 17.3 points with 1.6 blocks, but he only played 9 games so far and his conditioning is questionable. The Hawks’ bench depth is getting tested big time.
Phoenix Suns Breakdown: The Other Side
The Suns are absolutely locked in right now. They’re shooting 47.3% from the field and a scorching 38.5% from three (#5 in the NBA). Devin Booker is putting up 28.5 PPG with 7.0 assists, and he’s shooting exactly 50% from the field. That’s MVP-level efficiency right there.
Dillon Brooks has been on fire lately — he dropped 32 against Indiana and is averaging 20.3 PPG over his last seven games on 43.6% shooting. Grayson Allen hit a career-high 42 points earlier this week and is knocking down 44.7% from three (3rd in the league) while making 3.9 threes per game.
Here’s what kills teams against Phoenix: they’re allowing just 113.6 PPG overall and only 106.0 PPG at home. They protect the paint, they contest threes, and they don’t beat themselves. The Suns average 27.5 assists per game and have a 1.79 assist-to-turnover ratio, which shows they’re taking care of the ball.
The only concern? Grayson Allen left Wednesday’s game with a quad injury and is listed as out for Sunday. Jalen Green is also out with a hamstring injury. But even without Allen’s shooting, this team has enough firepower to cover.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and at the three-point line. Atlanta scores 52.9 PPG in the paint (#8 in NBA) while Phoenix allows just 42.9 PPG in the paint (#27 in NBA allowed). That’s a massive advantage for the Hawks’ slashers and big men.
But here’s the counter: Phoenix shoots 16.0 threes per game at home (#2 in the league) and connects at 38.5% from deep. Atlanta’s road defense allows 33.8% from three, which isn’t terrible, but Phoenix has the volume and accuracy to exploit that. When you’re launching 41.5 threes per game at home and making 16 of them, you can blow games wide open.
The head-to-head history is interesting. Atlanta has won 6 of the last 10 meetings and covered in 6 of the last 10 as well. But Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against Atlanta. The trend is clear: when these teams meet in Phoenix, the Suns take care of business.
Phoenix is also 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 home games. That tells me they’re playing elite defense at home and controlling tempo. Atlanta likes to run (19.3 fastbreak PPG, #2 in NBA), but Phoenix is limiting fastbreak points to just 14.1 PPG allowed.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering Phoenix +1.5 and I’m sprinkling the moneyline at +105. This line makes zero sense to me. You’re telling me the Hawks — without Trae Young, playing their fourth road game in six days — are favored over a Suns team that’s 6-1 at home and riding a five-game win streak? Load up on this before the line shifts.
The Suns have every advantage here: home court, rest, health (except Allen who’s replaceable), and better overall numbers. They’re 7-0 ATS at home for a reason — they dominate in Phoenix. The market’s disrespecting Phoenix here, and I’m taking full advantage.
For the total, I’m leaning UNDER 232.5 based on Phoenix’s recent home trends, but if Allen were playing, I’d smash the over. With his shooting out of the lineup, I expect Phoenix to grind this one out defensively.
BASH’S BEST BET: Suns +1.5 (-110) — 2 units
The Suns’ 6-1 home record and 7-0 ATS mark at home is too big to ignore. This number screams value, and Vegas is basically giving you free money. The Hawks are a good team, but they’re not beating a locked-in Phoenix squad on their home floor. Take the points, cash the ticket, and thank me later.
