Our latest handicapping preview targets a 10:00 PM tip where the vig is leaning toward a Hawks squad that covers at a 58% clip on the road. Bash explains why Jalen Johnson’s All-NBA form makes the free pick a clear choice against a Blazers rotation that’s leaking points.
The Setup: Hawks at Trail Blazers
The Atlanta Hawks head into Portland on Thursday night as 4-point road favorites. My first thought is the number looks fair. Atlanta sits at 20-22 but owns a surprising 13-11 road record, while Portland checks in at 19-22 with a perfectly even 10-10 mark at home. The market’s giving the Hawks respect for their road performance, and when you look at who’s driving their offense—Jalen Johnson averaging 23.4 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 8.1 assists—there’s legitimate reason to believe Atlanta can control this game away from home.
But here’s the thing—Portland isn’t the pushover this line might suggest. Deni Avdija is putting up 26.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game, and the Blazers have Shaedon Sharpe adding another 21.5 points nightly. With Jerami Grant listed as questionable after missing significant time, Portland’s depth takes a hit, but they’ve been competitive at Moda Center all season. Let me walk you through why this line exists and where the real value sits in this matchup.
The total is set at 229.5, which tells you the market expects a faster-paced game with both teams pushing tempo. Atlanta just got blown out 141-116 by the Lakers in Los Angeles, while Portland dropped a 119-97 decision to Golden State. Both teams are coming off losses where their defensive intensity wasn’t where it needed to be. That context matters when you’re evaluating how this game actually plays out over 96 possessions.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Atlanta Hawks at Portland Trail Blazers
Date: Thursday, January 15, 2026
Time: 10:00 PM ET
Venue: Moda Center at the Rose Quarter
TV: FanDuel SN SE, NBA League Pass (Away) | KUNP 16, BlazerVision (Home)
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Atlanta Hawks -4.0 (-110) | Portland Trail Blazers +4.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Atlanta Hawks -175 | Portland Trail Blazers +143
- Total: Over 229.5 (-110) | Under 229.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Hawks -4 because of Atlanta’s road profile and Portland’s injury situation. When you’ve got a team sitting at 13-11 away from home going against a 10-10 home squad, the oddsmakers aren’t giving the home team much respect—and for good reason. Portland’s dealing with significant absences: Scoot Henderson remains out as he works through non-contact basketball activities, Matisse Thybulle is multiple weeks away from returning, and Jerami Grant’s questionable status looms large.
Grant was averaging 20.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.7 assists before his Achilles tendonitis shut him down back on December 18. If he can’t go, that’s a massive hole in Portland’s scoring depth. The Blazers would be leaning heavily on Avdija and Sharpe to carry the offensive load, and while both are capable, asking them to cover 50+ combined points against a Hawks team that can spread the floor is a tall order.
On Atlanta’s side, they’re missing Kristaps Porzingis for a fourth straight game due to left Achilles tendonitis, and Zaccharie Risacher remains out as well. But here’s the difference—Atlanta’s built around Jalen Johnson’s versatility and has secondary scoring from Nickeil Alexander-Walker at 20.7 points per game and CJ McCollum adding 18.8 points. The Hawks have more offensive balance even with key pieces out, and that depth shows up in their road record.
The total at 229.5 reflects both teams’ recent defensive struggles and the expectation that this game stays uptempo. When you do the math over 96 possessions, you’re looking at teams that need to score efficiently in transition and limit second-chance opportunities. That’s where this matchup gets interesting.
Atlanta Hawks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Atlanta’s offense runs through Jalen Johnson, and his ability to facilitate while scoring makes him one of the more underrated players in the league right now. Averaging 23.4 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 8.1 assists means he’s impacting every possession—whether he’s pushing in transition, creating for others, or finishing around the rim. That triple-threat capability is exactly why the Hawks can win on the road.
The supporting cast matters here. Alexander-Walker at 20.7 points per game gives Atlanta a legitimate second scoring option who can create his own shot, and McCollum’s 18.8 points add another veteran presence who knows how to operate in late-clock situations. This isn’t a one-man show—it’s a balanced attack that can exploit mismatches across the floor.
The concern coming off that Lakers loss is defensive effort. Getting torched for 141 points by LeBron James (31 points, 10 assists, nine rebounds) and Luka Doncic (27 points, 12 assists) isn’t the end of the world, but it exposed Atlanta’s perimeter defense. If Portland gets hot from three and Avdija starts attacking downhill, the Hawks need to show better resistance than they did in Los Angeles.
Atlanta’s 13-11 road record isn’t a fluke—it’s a reflection of their ability to stay composed in hostile environments and execute down the stretch. That matters in a late-night West Coast game where fatigue and focus become factors.
Portland Trail Blazers Breakdown: The Other Side
Portland’s offense is heavily reliant on Deni Avdija’s production, and his 26.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game make him the clear focal point. Avdija’s been carrying a massive usage load, and when you pair him with Shaedon Sharpe’s 21.5 points, the Blazers have two guys who can get buckets in isolation. The problem is depth—if Grant can’t play, Portland’s third and fourth scoring options take a significant step down.
The Blazers are 10-10 at home, which tells you they’re competitive at Moda Center but not dominant. They’ve won games they should win and lost games where their lack of depth got exposed. Against a Hawks team that can spread the floor and attack multiple ways, Portland needs to control pace and force Atlanta into half-court sets where their defensive rotations can stay intact.
Coming off a 119-97 loss to Golden State, Portland’s defensive issues were on full display. Jimmy Butler and Stephen Curry picked them apart, and the Blazers couldn’t generate enough stops to stay in the game. If they show up with that same defensive energy against Atlanta, this game could get away from them quickly.
The key for Portland is Avdija’s ability to create advantages and get to the free-throw line. If he’s settling for contested jumpers, the Blazers are in trouble. If he’s attacking downhill and collapsing Atlanta’s defense, Portland has a chance to keep this game within the number.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to depth and execution in the half-court. Atlanta’s balanced scoring gives them multiple ways to attack Portland’s defense, while the Blazers are relying heavily on two primary options. When you factor in Jerami Grant’s questionable status, the gap widens even further. I keep coming back to this efficiency gap—Atlanta has three players averaging between 18.8 and 23.4 points per game, while Portland has two guys carrying the bulk of the load.
Once you dig into the matchup data, the pace becomes critical. Both teams want to push tempo, but Atlanta’s depth allows them to maintain that pace deeper into the game. Portland’s rotation tightens without Grant, and that means heavier minutes for Avdija and Sharpe. Fatigue becomes a real factor in the fourth quarter, especially in a game with a 10:00 PM ET tip that won’t end until after midnight on the East Coast.
The total at 229.5 feels about right when you consider both teams’ recent defensive performances. Neither squad is locking down opponents right now, and with the pace expected to be high, scoring opportunities will be plentiful. When you do the math over 96 possessions, you’re looking at both teams needing to hit the 115-point range to reach that number.
Here’s where Atlanta’s advantage shows up: their ability to score in transition and execute in the half-court gives them more margin for error. Portland needs everything to click—Avdija and Sharpe both need big nights, and they need role players to step up without Grant. That’s a lot to ask against a Hawks team that’s proven they can win on the road.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the 4 points with the Hawks. Atlanta’s road record at 13-11 isn’t an accident—it’s a reflection of their offensive balance and ability to execute away from home. Portland’s injury situation, particularly the uncertainty around Jerami Grant, tilts this matchup more than the line suggests. Even if Grant plays, he’s coming off a month-long absence and won’t be at full strength.
Jalen Johnson’s versatility gives Atlanta too many ways to attack, and with Alexander-Walker and McCollum both capable of carrying the offense for stretches, the Hawks have the depth advantage. Portland’s reliance on Avdija and Sharpe is a vulnerability that Atlanta can exploit, especially late in the game when rotations tighten.
The Play: Atlanta Hawks -4.0 (-110) | 2 Units
The main risk here is Portland’s home-court energy and the possibility that Avdija goes nuclear for 35+ points. But I’ve accounted for the home court—and it still doesn’t get there. Atlanta’s balanced attack and proven road performance make them the right side at -4. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests, but the Hawks have enough firepower to cover in what should be a competitive, high-scoring game at Moda Center.
