Heat at Bucks Pick & Analysis for Game 2

by | May 24, 2021 | nba

Miami Heat (40-32 SU, 34-36 ATS) at Milwaukee Bucks (46-26, 32-40), 5/24/21

When: 7:30 pm ET Monday, May 24

Where: Fiserv Forum

TV: TNT

NBA point spread: Mia +4.5/Mil -4.5 (Bovada - Can get your credit card to work for deposits! Offers a generous 50% REAL CASH bonus! BEST live betting platform on the web!)

Total: 222.5

After taking the opener of this best-of-seven first-round Eastern Conference playoff series Saturday night, the Bucks shoot for a 2-0 lead when they host the Heat again Monday night. Milwaukee is trying to avenge last year’s playoff booting by Miami and took a step in that direction with a last-second victory in Game 1. But the Bucks couldn’t cover the spread that night, and they’re favored by a handful again for Monday night. Here’s our homework on this game, with our free NBA playoff pick at the end.

NBA Playoff Betting Odds

The NBA playoff betting market opened Milwaukee at -4.5 for this Game 2, with an over/under of right around 221.5. Early betting action then bumped that total to 222.5.

Any bettors out there thinking Miami might win this game outright could get a price of around +165 on the NBA betting money line.

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Heat-Bucks NBA Betting Preview

Milwaukee grabbed Game 1 of this series Saturday night 109-107 in overtime. Neither team ever led by more than eight points. The Bucks led late, but Miami’s Jimmy Butler forced OT with a bucket at the regulation buzzer. The game was then tied at 107 when the Bucks’ Khris Middleton hit a hoop with .5 of a second to go in the overtime period for the victory.

But Milwaukee couldn’t cover the spread as a 5.5-point favorite.

Also, Game 1 played well under its total of 227, even with five minutes of overtime.

The Bucks shot 44 percent from the floor Saturday while holding the Heat to just 36 percent shooting.
Miami shot 20/50 from 3-point land while Milwaukee shot just 5/31 from long range. But the Bucks out-scored the Heat 56-24 in the paint and won the battle on the glass 64-51.

Milwaukee finished six games ahead of Miami in the regular-season standings, 46-26 to 40-32. The Bucks also took the season series from the Heat two games to one. These teams split two games back-to-back nights back in December, both winning on the road before Milwaukee won the series rubber match two weeks ago at home 122-108.

Last year Miami knocked top-seeded Milwaukee out of the playoffs with a 4-1 series victory in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Bucks were really distracted at that time by some things they had nothing to do with, and the Heat simply outplayed them. So there’s a hint of revenge in the air for Milwaukee here. However, we do not consider revenge as a reliable handicapping factor.

On the injury front, Miami took a hit about six weeks ago when G Victor Oladipo (20 points, five rebounds, and five assists per game this season) went down and out with a knee injury. And yet the Heat played 13-7 SU, 12-7 ATS after that.

Heat-Bucks NBA Betting Trends

  • Miami played 19-17 both SU and ATS on the road this season.
  • Milwaukee played 26-10 SU, 17-19 ATS at home this season.
  • Miami played 9-14 ATS as an underdog this season.
  • Milwaukee played 8-7 ATS when favored by five points or less this season.
  • Miami is 5-0 SU, 4-0-1 ATS its last five games coming off a loss.

Totals Report

Overs played 38-34 in Heat games this season, which averaged 216 total points.

Overs played 41-30 in Bucks games this season, which averaged 234 points.

The UNDER was 2-1 in Heat-Bucks games this season, averaging 233 total points against an average over/under of 229.

Free NBA Playoffs Pick

Miami shot just 36 percent from the floor Saturday and nearly won the game. Our guess is the Heat will improve upon that mark Monday night. And Milwaukee is just not quite the team it was even last year when it was still great but flawed. They might not win this game outright, but we like Miami and the points here for our free NBA pick for Monday.