It’s a heavyweight battle of the bigs as Bam Adebayo leads the Miami Heat against Nikola Vucevic and the Chicago Bulls. Our NBA Picks focus on how Adebayo’s 9.7 rebounds per game will handle Vucevic’s interior scoring, especially with Chicago missing playmaking catalyst Josh Giddey (hamstring).
The Setup: Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls
Miami comes to the United Center on Thursday laying 1.5 points against Chicago, and this one’s got all the makings of a messy, rotation-challenged grind. The Heat are 10-15 on the road this season, and they’re walking into this spot without Tyler Herro (doubtful) and Terry Rozier (out indefinitely). Chicago sits at 15-10 at home, but they just blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead in Indiana on Wednesday. The Bulls are catching Miami in a vulnerable spot, but the line tells you the market doesn’t trust Chicago’s consistency either. This is a 1.5-point spread with a 241-point total—both numbers screaming that the books see two compromised rosters grinding through possessions without their full complement of shot creators.
Game Info & Betting Lines
When: Thursday, January 29, 2026, 8:00 ET
Where: United Center
Watch: Home: CHSN, CHSN+ | Away: FanDuel SN Sun, NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Miami Heat -1.5 (-110) | Chicago Bulls +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Miami Heat -120 | Chicago Bulls -102
- Total: 241.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market’s giving Miami 1.5 points on the road despite the Heat’s 10-15 away record, and that price makes sense when you run the personnel math. Norman Powell is carrying 23.0 PPG this season, and Bam Adebayo provides 18.0 PPG with 9.7 boards—two reliable anchors who keep Miami functional even when the rotation thins out. But Herro’s 21.9 PPG is likely missing again (seventh straight game), and Rozier’s absence removes another primary ball-handler from the equation. That’s a lot of shot creation off the floor.
Chicago’s getting home court and a short number, but the Bulls are 8-14 on the road and just 23-24 overall. Coby White (18.8 PPG), Josh Giddey (18.6 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 8.8 APG), and Nikola Vucevic (17.0 PPG, 9.1 RPG) provide balance, but the Bulls don’t have a go-to closer who can take over late. Wednesday’s collapse in Indiana—blowing 14 points in the fourth before losing on a late Aaron Nesmith layup and block—tells you everything about Chicago’s execution under pressure. The market’s essentially saying Miami’s top-end talent with Powell and Adebayo is worth a field goal over Chicago’s committee approach, even on the road with a depleted backcourt.
Miami Heat Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Powell’s 23.0 PPG makes him Miami’s primary offensive engine right now, and he’s doing it efficiently enough to keep the Heat competitive in most spots. Adebayo’s 9.7 rebounds and interior presence give Miami an anchor defensively, but without Herro’s shot creation and Rozier’s ball-handling, the Heat are asking Powell to carry a heavier load in isolation and transition. Miami’s 25-23 record reflects a team that’s playoff-caliber when healthy but vulnerable when the rotation compresses.
The road splits are the real concern here—10-15 away from home means Miami’s been inconsistent in hostile environments all season. Wednesday’s loss to Orlando (133-124) showed how the Heat can get exposed when they don’t have enough perimeter defenders to rotate. Paolo Banchero (31 points, 12 rebounds) and Anthony Black (26 points) carved them up, and Orlando shot well enough to snap a four-game skid. That’s the kind of performance that happens when Miami’s missing multiple rotation pieces and can’t generate enough stops to control tempo.
Chicago Bulls Breakdown: The Other Side
Giddey’s 18.6 PPG, 8.6 RPG, and 8.8 APG line makes him Chicago’s most complete player, but the Bulls don’t have a true alpha who can close games when the margin tightens. White’s 18.8 PPG gives them a secondary scoring option, and Vucevic’s 17.0 PPG with 9.1 boards provides interior production, but Wednesday’s loss in Indiana exposed Chicago’s late-game fragility. Leading by 14 in the fourth and losing on a Nesmith layup with 13.9 seconds left is the kind of result that sticks with a team.
The Bulls are 15-10 at home, which is solid enough, but they’re also 8-14 on the road—a split that suggests Chicago’s more comfortable in familiar surroundings but not dominant anywhere. Tre Jones (doubtful) being out means fewer ball-handling options behind Giddey, and while the Bulls have enough depth to survive, they don’t have the kind of offensive firepower to run teams off the floor. Chicago’s success depends on controlling pace and winning the possession battle, not on overwhelming opponents with shot-making.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to which team can execute in the half-court when possessions get sticky. Miami’s missing two primary ball-handlers, which means Powell and Adebayo are going to see heavy usage in pick-and-roll actions and isolation spots. Chicago’s going to pack the paint and force Miami’s role players to beat them from the perimeter. If Jaime Jaquez and Pelle Larsson—the guys picking up minutes in Herro’s absence—can knock down open threes, Miami’s got enough to cover a short number. If they can’t, the Heat are going to struggle to generate efficient offense over 90-plus possessions.
Chicago’s advantage is at home, where they’re 15-10 and more comfortable running their sets. Giddey’s playmaking gives the Bulls a way to generate open looks without relying on isolation scoring, and Vucevic’s ability to operate in the post provides a counter to Miami’s perimeter defense. But the Bulls just blew a 14-point lead less than 24 hours ago, and that kind of late-game collapse creates doubt. Can Chicago close this game if it’s tight in the final four minutes? Wednesday says no.
The total sitting at 241 points reflects two teams that don’t have elite offensive firepower right now. Miami’s averaging 25-23 with a compromised backcourt, and Chicago’s 23-24 with a balanced but unspectacular attack. Over 90 possessions, you’re looking at around 120-121 points per team to hit the over, which is doable if both teams shoot reasonably well. But if this turns into a grind with both offenses struggling to generate clean looks, the under’s got value.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Chicago Bulls +1.5 (-110) for 2 units. Miami’s road struggles (10-15) and depleted backcourt give Chicago enough of an edge at home to keep this within a possession. The Bulls are 15-10 at the United Center, and while Wednesday’s collapse in Indiana was ugly, they’re getting a Heat team that’s missing two of its top four scorers. Powell and Adebayo can keep Miami competitive, but asking them to cover a road spread without Herro and Rozier is a lot.
The risk is that Powell goes nuclear and Miami’s role players hit enough threes to pull away late. But Chicago’s got the home crowd, the fresher legs (Miami played Wednesday too), and a balanced attack that can exploit Miami’s thin rotation. This feels like a game that comes down to the final possession, and I’ll take the points with the home team. If Chicago loses, they lose by one. If they win, they win outright.
BASH’S BEST BET: Chicago Bulls +1.5 (-110) for 2 units.
