The numbers tell the truth: TOR 8-3 H vs. CHA 1-10 R. Get Bryan Bash’s expert predictions and the high-value best bet on the deserving favorite.
The Setup: Hornets at Raptors
The books have the Toronto Raptors laying 7.5 points against a Charlotte Hornets squad that’s been roadkill away from home, and I’m here to tell you this number makes perfect sense. Charlotte comes in at 1-10 on the road while Toronto sits pretty at 8-3 at home in Scotiabank Arena. The Raptors are 15-8 overall and sitting third in the Eastern Conference, while the Hornets are drowning at 6-16 and twelfth in the East. The public’s all over Toronto here, and you know what? They’re not wrong. Sometimes the obvious play is the right play, and this is one of those spots where trying to get cute will burn your bankroll. Charlotte’s got injury questions with Brandon Miller, Tre Mann, and Ryan Kalkbrenner all questionable, and that’s before we talk about facing a Raptors team that’s been one of the league’s surprise stories this season. The market’s not disrespecting anyone here—it’s just telling the truth.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 5, 2025, 7:30 ET
Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Charlotte Hornets: 6-16 (12th in East)
Toronto Raptors: 15-8 (3rd in East)
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Hornets +7.5 (-110) | Raptors -7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Hornets +243 | Raptors -313
- Total: Over/Under 230.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let me break down why Vegas hung this number at 7.5, and it’s not complicated. The Raptors are 15-8 and playing quality basketball at home with an 8-3 record at Scotiabank Arena. Meanwhile, Charlotte is an absolute disaster on the road at 1-10, which means they’ve won exactly one game away from home all season. That’s not a trend—that’s a pattern of failure. The books are begging you to take the Hornets plus the points, hoping you’ll look at 7.5 and think it’s too many. But here’s the reality: when a team is 1-10 on the road, they’re not just losing—they’re getting boat-raced. The Hornets have three key players questionable for this game, including Brandon Miller, who’s been dealing with a shoulder issue. That’s a massive problem when you’re already struggling to compete. Toronto’s got their own injury concerns with RJ Barrett out and Jakob Poeltl sitting, but they’re still rolling with Brandon Ingram averaging 21.4 PPG, Scottie Barnes at 20.4 PPG, and enough depth to handle a depleted Hornets squad. The total at 230.0 tells you the books expect a competitive scoring environment, but I’m not buying Charlotte keeping pace in hostile territory.
Hornets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Charlotte’s season has been a train wreck, and their road record tells the whole story. At 1-10 away from home, they’ve shown zero ability to compete outside their own building. The offense runs through Miles Bridges (21.1 PPG) and LaMelo Ball (19.9 PPG, 8.9 APG), with rookie Kon Knueppel adding 18.1 PPG, but none of that firepower has translated to road success. The recent loss to the Knicks showed their limitations—they got handled 119-104 by a New York team that simply had more talent and execution. Now they’re walking into Toronto on the second night of a back-to-back situation potentially, dealing with three questionable players. Brandon Miller’s shoulder issue is particularly concerning because he’s a key two-way contributor. Tre Mann’s knee and Ryan Kalkbrenner’s ankle add more uncertainty to a rotation that’s already paper-thin. This is exactly the spot where the Hornets burn you if you’re chasing plus-money on the moneyline or thinking 7.5 points is safe. They don’t have the defensive discipline or road toughness to hang with a legitimate playoff team like Toronto.
Raptors Breakdown: The Other Side
Toronto’s been one of the league’s pleasant surprises, sitting at 15-8 and third in the Eastern Conference. Their home court has been a fortress at 8-3, and they’ve got the offensive firepower to exploit Charlotte’s defensive weaknesses. Brandon Ingram leads the way at 21.4 PPG, giving them a legitimate go-to scorer in crunch time. Scottie Barnes (20.4 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 5.2 APG) continues to develop into an All-Star caliber player, providing versatility on both ends. The loss of RJ Barrett hurts—he was averaging 19.4 PPG before the knee sprain—but the Raptors have shown they can win without him. Jakob Poeltl sitting out is more concerning for their interior presence, but against a Hornets team that struggles to defend, Toronto should be able to score efficiently. Their recent game against the Lakers went down to the wire, losing 123-120 on a Rui Hachimura buzzer-beater off a LeBron James assist. That’s the kind of competitive environment Toronto thrives in, and it shows they’re not intimidated by big moments. Against a significantly weaker opponent like Charlotte, they should control this game from start to finish.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in two critical areas: Charlotte’s road incompetence and Toronto’s home dominance. The Hornets are 1-10 on the road—that’s not a small sample size anymore, that’s who they are. They can’t defend consistently, they don’t execute in hostile environments, and they’re dealing with multiple injury questions. Toronto at 8-3 at home knows how to use Scotiabank Arena to their advantage, and they’ve got the offensive balance to attack Charlotte from multiple angles. LaMelo Ball will get his numbers—he’s averaging 19.9 PPG and 8.9 APG—but one player doesn’t win games when the supporting cast is banged up and ineffective on the road. The pace will favor Toronto’s ability to run and create transition opportunities, which is where Charlotte’s defensive breakdowns become catastrophic. I’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t end well for the road team that can’t defend or execute. The total at 230.0 suggests a competitive scoring game, but I expect Toronto to control tempo and dictate terms. Sharp money knows what’s up here—this is a spot where the favorite covers because the underdog simply doesn’t have the tools to compete.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering the Raptors -7.5 before this number moves, and I’m doing it with confidence. Charlotte is 1-10 on the road, potentially missing key contributors, and facing a Toronto team that’s 8-3 at home and playing quality basketball. The Hornets have shown zero ability to compete away from home, and nothing about this matchup suggests that changes tonight. Toronto’s got enough firepower with Ingram and Barnes to exploit every defensive weakness Charlotte brings, and the home crowd will be a factor. This line’s sitting at 7.5 for a reason—Vegas knows the Hornets can’t hang. I’m laying the points with 3 units on Raptors -7.5, and I’m expecting a double-digit win. The books set this number hoping you’d overthink it and take the road dog, but sometimes the obvious play is the right play. Toronto rolls tonight, and it won’t be close. Raptors -7.5, lock it in.
