Toronto returns home in rhythm after a strong road swing, while Charlotte arrives short-handed and on a rough scheduling spot. This matchup sets up a clear betting angle once you dig into the efficiency gaps.
The Setup: Charlotte at Toronto
The books are begging you to take Charlotte getting 7.5 points against a Raptors team that’s sitting pretty at 8-5. The Hornets come limping into Scotiabank Arena at 4-9, losers of two straight and averaging 117.2 points per game while giving up 120.5. Meanwhile, Toronto’s rolling with a 120.5 PPG offensive attack and holding opponents to just 115.7. This line’s still attractive if you think Charlotte has any shot here.
The market’s telling you Toronto by less than double digits, but these teams are headed in completely opposite directions. The Raptors just dominated Indiana 129-111 on the road, their third straight win and fourth victory in five games during a road trip. Charlotte? They got beat by the Thunder 109-96 at home with LaMelo Ball rested on the back-to-back. Now they’re traveling to Toronto after minimal rest. This is exactly the spot where underdogs get crushed.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Date/Time: Monday, November 17, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
Venue: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
Spread: Raptors -7.5
Total: 238.5
Moneyline: Raptors -330 / Hornets +270
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Vegas knows something here, and it’s staring you right in the face. Charlotte’s defense is hemorrhaging 120.5 points per game this season – that’s 21st in the league. Toronto’s offense is putting up 120.5 PPG, good for 10th overall. The efficiency gap is massive: Toronto’s shooting 49.8% from the field (5th in the NBA) while Charlotte’s limping along at 46.3% (18th).
The Raptors are 8-5 against the spread this season and 6-3 ATS on the road. Charlotte? They’re 6-7 ATS overall and just 1-5 ATS away from home. The public sees the 7.5 and thinks it’s a reasonable number, but sharp money knows what’s up here. Toronto’s dominated at home against Eastern Conference opponents, and Charlotte’s 1-4 against Western Conference teams shows they struggle against quality competition.
Look at the assist-to-turnover ratios from the data: Toronto’s at 2.22 (3rd in the league) while Charlotte’s sitting at 1.63 (23rd). That’s execution versus chaos, and that gap widens in hostile road environments. The books set this line knowing Charlotte’s undermanned and overmatched.
Charlotte Hornets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Hornets are struggling right now. They’re averaging 117.2 PPG but surrendering 120.5 – that’s a negative point differential that’s getting worse. Miles Bridges is putting up 22.1 PPG on solid shooting, but he’s doing it mostly alone. LaMelo Ball returned Friday against Milwaukee after a five-game absence but was rested Saturday against OKC due to back-to-back rest management. He’s expected to be available Monday against Toronto.
Brandon Miller is out with a shoulder injury and won’t be back until November 19th at the earliest. Grant Williams (knee) and Josh Green (shoulder) are both sidelined. That’s three rotation players missing, and rookie Liam McNeeley is out with illness. The Hornets are shooting 37.2% from three-point range and committing 16.4 turnovers per game.
Charlotte’s road numbers are brutal: 1-5 straight up and allowing 120.5 PPG away from home. They’re getting destroyed on the glass, surrendering significant offensive rebounding opportunities on the road. This team has no answer for physical, well-coached opponents like Toronto.
Toronto Raptors Breakdown: The Other Side
The Raptors are clicking on all cylinders. RJ Barrett scored 22 points and Jakob Poeltl added 22 points on 8-of-9 shooting against Indiana. Brandon Ingram is averaging 20.4 PPG since joining Toronto, and Scottie Barnes is putting up 20.2 PPG with 7.6 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game. That’s a legitimate scoring threat that Charlotte has no personnel to match.
Toronto’s defensive efficiency is strong at 115.7 PPG allowed (13th in the league), and they’re forcing opponents into tough shots. The Raptors are shooting 49.8% from the field overall and 36.9% from three – solid across the board. What makes them dangerous is their 30.2 assists per game (3rd in the NBA), showing they’re moving the ball and getting open looks.
The Raptors wrapped up their road trip going 4-1, returning home refreshed. Immanuel Quickley is dishing 6.2 assists per game, and the team’s assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.22 shows incredible ball security.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game’s getting decided in the paint and on the boards. Toronto averages 54.6 points in the paint per game (5th in the league) while Charlotte’s giving up 52.3 PPG in the paint on defense. That’s a 2.3-point edge right there, and with Poeltl controlling the interior, expect that gap to widen. The Raptors are grabbing significant offensive rebounds while Charlotte allows opportunities on the glass.
The pace favors Toronto. The Raptors average 22.1 fastbreak points per game (1st in the NBA) while Charlotte’s limping along at 12.8 (4th defensively in fastbreak points allowed). That 9-point swing in transition opportunities is massive, especially with Charlotte on minimal rest with a depleted roster. Toronto’s going to push the tempo, and the Hornets won’t be able to keep up.
Head-to-head history tells the story: Toronto’s won 8 of the last 10 meetings and covered the spread in 7 of those games. The Raptors average 120.3 PPG in this matchup while Charlotte manages just 109.4. The most recent meeting on April 9, 2025 saw Toronto crush Charlotte 126-96, covering the 11.5-point spread easily. These teams know each other, and Toronto owns this matchup.
Charlotte’s three-point shooting (37.2%) is their best weapon, but they’re attempting 39.9 threes per game compared to Toronto’s 33.4. That volume shooting from deep is desperation, not strategy. When the threes aren’t falling – and they won’t in a hostile road environment against elite defense – the Hornets have no Plan B. Toronto will pack the paint, make Charlotte beat them from outside, and watch the bricks pile up.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m targeting Toronto -7.5 before this line moves further. The Raptors are the better team in every measurable category: offense (120.5 vs 117.2), defense (115.7 vs 120.5), shooting percentage (49.8% vs 46.3%), assists (30.2 vs 26.8), and assist-to-turnover ratio (2.22 vs 1.63). Charlotte’s missing three rotation players and traveling on the second night of a back-to-back against a Toronto team that’s won three straight and knows how to close games at home.
The situational spot screams Toronto blowout. Charlotte’s 1-5 on the road this season and struggling significantly away from home. That’s getting destroyed by an average of over 10 points per game on the road. The Raptors are strong against Eastern Conference opponents and have covered the spread in their last three games. Momentum matters, and Toronto’s got all of it.
BASH’S BEST BET: Raptors -7.5 – Lock it in before the line shifts further. Toronto’s offensive firepower and defensive discipline are too much for a depleted, exhausted Hornets squad on a back-to-back. I’m seeing a 125-108 type game where the Raptors pull away in the third quarter and cruise to an easy cover. Toronto’s dominance in this matchup historically is a major factor here. Let’s cash it.
