The Knicks are laying two touchdowns at home. Bryan Bash reveals his high-confidence ATS pick on the Jazz’s offensive firepower to keep it close.
The Setup: Utah Jazz at New York Knicks
The Knicks are laying 16 points at Madison Square Garden against a Jazz team that just hung 123 on Brooklyn with a 42-point fourth quarter explosion. Yeah, New York’s 11-1 at home, but 16 points? The books are begging you to take the Knicks here, and I’m not buying what they’re selling. Utah’s sitting at 2-7 on the road, sure, but Lauri Markkanen is averaging 28.1 points per game and Keyonte George is putting up 23.1 PPG with 7.0 assists. Those two just combined for 59 points in their last game, and now Vegas wants me to believe they’re getting blown out by more than two touchdowns? The market’s disrespecting Utah here, and that’s exactly where the value lives. The Knicks are rolling at 14-7 and ranked second in the East, but this number screams trap game written all over it.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 5, 2025, 7:30 ET
Venue: Madison Square Garden
Current Spread: New York Knicks -16.0 (-110) | Utah Jazz +16.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Knicks -1250 | Jazz +687
Total: Over/Under 240.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Vegas is selling you a narrative, and that narrative is simple: the Knicks are a powerhouse at home, and the Jazz are roadkill away from Salt Lake City. New York’s 11-1 home record is legitimate—no argument there. But let’s talk about what’s really happening here. The Jazz just put up 123 points against Brooklyn, with Markkanen and George combining for firepower that can hang with anyone in this league. Meanwhile, the Knicks are coming off a 119-104 win over Charlotte where Karl-Anthony Towns dropped 35 points and 18 rebounds, and Jalen Brunson added 26 points. That’s the story the books want you to focus on—New York’s dominance, Utah’s road struggles.
But here’s what they’re not telling you: 16 points is a massive number in the NBA, especially against a team with two legitimate scorers averaging over 23 PPG each. The total sitting at 240.5 tells you the books expect a high-scoring affair, which means they’re anticipating Utah to put up points. You can’t have it both ways—either the Jazz score and keep it close, or they get blown out and the total goes under. Sharp money knows what’s up here: this line is designed to make the Knicks look like a sure thing while hiding the fact that Utah has the offensive firepower to stay within this bloated number.
Utah Jazz Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Jazz are 8-13 overall and ranked 11th in the Western Conference, but those numbers don’t tell the full story of what they bring offensively. Lauri Markkanen is having a career year at 28.1 PPG, establishing himself as a legitimate go-to scorer who can carry an offense. Keyonte George at 23.1 PPG and 7.0 APG gives Utah a secondary playmaker who can create for himself and others. Walker Kessler is chipping in 14.4 PPG and 10.8 RPG, providing interior presence on both ends.
Yes, Utah’s 2-7 on the road, and that’s concerning. But they just proved in Brooklyn they can flip the switch when needed—trailing by 15 in the first half before outscoring the Nets 42-20 in the fourth quarter. That’s not a team that quits, and that’s not a team that rolls over for a 16-point beatdown. The injury situation isn’t ideal with Jusuf Nurkic and Kevin Love out, but Markkanen and George have shown they can shoulder the offensive load without needing a deep rotation. This is exactly the spot where a live underdog can keep it competitive and cash that plus-money ticket.
New York Knicks Breakdown: The Other Side
The Knicks are legitimate contenders in the East at 14-7, and their 11-1 home record at Madison Square Garden is no fluke. Jalen Brunson is orchestrating everything at 27.6 PPG and 6.4 APG, while Karl-Anthony Towns is putting up 22.7 PPG and 12.0 RPG since joining New York. Mikal Bridges adds 17.0 PPG as a third scoring option, giving the Knicks multiple ways to attack.
The concern here isn’t whether New York can win—they absolutely should. The question is whether they can cover 16 points against a team that just dropped 123 on Brooklyn. OG Anunoby is listed as questionable with a hamstring issue, which could impact New York’s defensive versatility. The Knicks are 3-6 on the road, showing they’re a completely different team away from MSG, but at home they’ve been dominant. Towns just went off for 35 and 18 against Charlotte, and Brunson continues to prove he’s one of the league’s most underrated floor generals. But covering 16 requires a blowout, and I’ve seen this movie before—good teams at home against motivated underdogs rarely cover these inflated numbers.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Utah can keep pace offensively and prevent the Knicks from building an insurmountable lead. New York’s home dominance is real—11-1 doesn’t happen by accident. But the Jazz showed in Brooklyn they can score in bunches, especially when Markkanen and George get rolling. The Knicks will push pace at MSG and try to use their crowd energy to blow this open early, but Utah has proven they can weather runs and fight back.
The key matchup is Markkanen against whoever draws the assignment—likely Bridges or potentially Anunoby if he plays. Markkanen at 28.1 PPG is playing at an All-Star level, and he’s going to get his points regardless of the defense. George’s ability to facilitate and create will be crucial in keeping Utah’s offense flowing against New York’s length. On the other side, Brunson and Towns will operate in pick-and-roll situations that have been devastating for opponents at MSG, but the Jazz have enough offensive firepower to trade baskets.
The total at 240.5 suggests a high-scoring game, which favors Utah’s chances of staying within the number. If both teams are scoring, the Jazz don’t need to win—they just need to keep it within 15. That’s a massive cushion, and with two 23+ PPG scorers, they’ve got the weapons to do it.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering Utah Jazz +16.0 before this number moves. The Knicks should win this game at home, but 16 points is disrespectful to what the Jazz bring offensively. Markkanen and George are legitimate scorers who just combined for 59 in Brooklyn, and they’re not going to roll over and die at Madison Square Garden. New York’s 11-1 at home, but this is exactly the spot where they win by 10-12 and leave Knicks backers sweating.
Confidence Level: 4/5 Units
The public’s all over the Knicks laying the points because of that home record, which means the value is sitting right there with Utah getting more than two touchdowns. Take the points, cash the ticket, and watch Vegas cry when the Jazz keep this competitive. This line’s a joke, and I’m taking the points all day long.
