The 20-7 Denver Nuggets look to extend their divisional dominance against a Utah Jazz team that allows more points than any other squad in the NBA.
The Setup: Jazz at Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets are laying 13 points at home against the Utah Jazz on Monday night, and on the surface, this number makes sense. You’ve got a 20-7 team ranked third in the Western Conference hosting a 10-17 squad that’s been brutal on the road at 3-8. Denver’s got Nikola Jokic doing Nikola Jokic things—29.4 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 10.7 assists per game—while Utah is dealing with injury uncertainty around Lauri Markkanen and confirmed absences of Kevin Love and Georges Niang.
Here’s the thing—this isn’t just about talent disparity. When you dig into the matchup data and account for how these teams actually operate over a full 48 minutes, this line starts to look less like a trap and more like a legitimate reflection of the efficiency gap. Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I’m comfortable laying the points with Denver at Ball Arena.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 22, 2025, 9:00 ET
Venue: Ball Arena
Spread: Denver Nuggets -13.0 (-110) | Utah Jazz +13.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Denver Nuggets -909 | Utah Jazz +569
Total: Over/Under 248.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
A 13-point spread in the NBA is significant, but once you factor in the context, it’s not outrageous. Denver is 8-5 at home, which might not jump off the page until you realize they’re 12-2 on the road—meaning this team performs regardless of location, but Ball Arena still provides an edge. The Nuggets are playing with a healthy Jokic and Jamal Murray, who’s averaging 24.8 points and 6.7 assists, while Utah is potentially without their best player in Markkanen and definitely missing two rotation pieces.
The moneyline of -909 tells you everything about how the market views this game. That’s not a number you see unless there’s overwhelming confidence in the favorite’s ability to control the game from start to finish. The total sitting at 248 is elevated, which suggests the market expects Denver to push pace and Utah to struggle keeping up defensively without their full complement of players.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. Denver’s offense runs through the most complete player in basketball, while Utah’s defensive structure gets compromised when they’re missing frontcourt depth. That’s not just a stat—it’s how this game tilts over 96 possessions.
Utah Jazz Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Jazz come into Ball Arena at 10-17, and that record tells an honest story. They’re 3-8 on the road, which means they’ve won just 27% of their away games. Keyonte George has been productive, averaging 24.0 points and 6.9 assists, but he’s being asked to carry too much offensive responsibility without consistent help. Walker Kessler provides interior presence with 14.4 points and 10.8 rebounds, but he’s not the type of player who can create his own offense or punish mismatches.
The main concern for Utah is the Markkanen situation. He’s questionable with a groin issue, and even if he plays, you have to wonder about his effectiveness. Markkanen is their best scorer at 27.8 points per game and their most versatile offensive weapon. Without him at full strength—or at all—this offense becomes one-dimensional and easier to scheme against.
Losing Kevin Love and Georges Niang removes depth and shooting from the rotation. Love’s absence might seem minor given his age, but he provides veteran stability and floor spacing. Niang’s foot injury takes away another shooter who can punish closeouts. When you’re already undermanned on the road against an elite team, these absences compound quickly.
Denver Nuggets Breakdown: The Other Side
Denver sits at 20-7 and ranked third in the West, and they’ve earned that positioning through offensive consistency. Jokic’s triple-double averages are historic, but what matters for this spread is how he dictates pace and creates efficient looks for everyone around him. Murray complements him perfectly as a secondary creator and pull-up threat, and together they form one of the league’s most difficult backcourt-frontcourt combinations to defend.
The Nuggets are dealing with their own injury issues—Aaron Gordon is out until after Christmas with a hamstring injury, Christian Braun is sidelined with an ankle issue, and Peyton Watson is questionable with a side injury. But here’s the difference: Denver’s core is intact. Jokic and Murray are healthy, and that’s 80% of what makes this offense elite. Gordon’s absence hurts their versatility and transition defense, but it doesn’t fundamentally change how they operate in the halfcourt.
Denver’s home/road split is interesting—they’re actually better on the road at 12-2 than at home at 8-5. That might suggest some complacency at Ball Arena, but it also shows this team can win anywhere. For this matchup, I’m banking on them treating a struggling Jazz team as an opportunity to build momentum before the holiday stretch.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in two areas: offensive efficiency and frontcourt depth. Denver runs its offense through Jokic, who creates high-percentage looks through his passing and draws multiple defenders on every post touch. Utah doesn’t have the personnel to contain him one-on-one, especially if Markkanen is limited or out. Kessler can provide some resistance as a rim protector, but Jokic will pick him apart with passing angles and mid-range touch.
On the other end, Utah’s offense becomes predictable without Markkanen. George will have to create off the dribble against Murray, who’s a capable defender when locked in. Kessler will get his touches around the basket, but he’s not going to punish Denver’s help defense consistently enough to keep this close. When you do the math over 96 possessions, Denver’s ability to generate efficient shots through Jokic’s playmaking should create a margin wider than Utah can overcome with transition buckets or hot shooting.
The pace factor matters here too. That 248 total suggests a faster game, which actually benefits Denver. They’re comfortable playing uptempo with Jokic pushing in transition, and Utah’s defensive rotations get exposed when they’re scrambling back. If Denver pushes early and often, they can build a lead that forces Utah into uncomfortable offensive possessions where they’re hunting threes to stay within striking distance.
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests only if Markkanen plays and plays well, and if Denver comes out flat at home. I’ve accounted for the home court—and it still doesn’t get there for Utah without multiple breaks going their way.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the 13 points with Denver at -110 for 2 units. This number exists for a reason—talent disparity, injury situation, and home court all point toward a comfortable Nuggets win. Jokic and Murray are healthy and playing at an elite level, while Utah is compromised both in terms of personnel and road performance.
The main risk here is Denver playing down to competition or Utah catching fire from three early and building confidence. But even if Utah hangs around for a half, Denver’s offensive consistency and ability to execute in the halfcourt should create separation in the third and fourth quarters. Jokic’s ability to control pace and generate efficient possessions is the ultimate equalizer against variance.
When you factor in Utah’s 3-8 road record, their injury situation, and Denver’s need to take care of business at home, this line feels right. I’m not chasing a blowout—I’m banking on Denver being the better team over 48 minutes and that margin reflecting in the final score. Take the Nuggets -13 and expect them to handle business at Ball Arena.
