The 16-20 Portland Trail Blazers look to capitalize on their recent momentum as they host the Utah Jazz on Monday night. Bryan Bash analyzes whether Utah’s 4-11 road record and defensive gaps make the Blazers a premier ATS pick in this West clash.
The Setup: Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers
Portland’s laying 6 at home against a Utah squad that’s been grinding through a tough season, and on the surface, this number makes sense. The Blazers are 16-20 but sitting 9th in the West, while the Jazz limp in at 12-22 and ranked 13th in the conference. Here’s the thing — this isn’t just about record differential. When you factor in Utah’s road struggles (4-11 away from home), Portland’s recent momentum coming off that Spurs win, and the injury situations on both sides, this line starts to look like it’s giving you value on the home side.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I think Portland covers with room to spare. The Jazz are dealing with some key absences — Kevin Love is out for rest, Jusuf Nurkic is day-to-day with a toe issue, and Airious Bailey is questionable with a hip problem. Meanwhile, Portland’s missing Jrue Holiday (calf) and Jerami Grant (Achilles), but they just put up 115 against San Antonio with Deni Avdija posting a triple-double and Donovan Clingan dropping a career-high 24. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this roster is learning to win without their full complement.
The market set this at 6 because they’re accounting for Portland’s home court and Utah’s road woes, but once you dig into the matchup data and efficiency profiles, I keep coming back to one thing: Portland has the depth and versatility to exploit Utah’s defensive gaps, and 6 points over 48 minutes doesn’t capture that edge.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 5, 2026, 10:00 ET
Venue: Moda Center at the Rose Quarter
Spread: Portland Trail Blazers -6.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Portland -233 | Utah +185
Total: 244.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The oddsmakers landed on 6 because they’re weighing a few key factors: Portland’s 7-9 home record isn’t exactly dominant, Utah’s got legitimate offensive firepower with Lauri Markkanen averaging 27.9 PPG and Keyonte George putting up 24.5 PPG, and both teams have injury concerns that muddy the waters. The -233 moneyline on Portland tells you the market believes they win this game outright more often than not, but the 6-point spread suggests they’re not confident in a blowout.
Here’s where I start to see the gap. Utah’s 4-11 on the road, and that’s not just bad luck — it’s a reflection of how this team struggles to maintain defensive intensity away from home. Portland’s coming off a game where they led San Antonio for all but 18 seconds, and they did it with Avdija (29-11-10), Clingan (24-12), and Toumani Camara (20-8) all stepping up. That’s three guys producing at a high level, and it doesn’t even account for Shaedon Sharpe’s 21.3 PPG season average.
The total sitting at 244 is elevated, and that makes sense given both teams’ offensive capabilities. Markkanen and George can score in bunches, and Portland’s shown they can push pace when they need to. But when you’re handicapping the spread, the key question isn’t whether Utah can score — it’s whether they can get enough stops to keep this within 6. Based on their road defensive profile and Portland’s recent offensive rhythm, I’m not seeing it.
Utah Jazz Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Jazz offense runs through Markkanen and George, and those two are legitimate. Markkanen’s 27.9 PPG makes him one of the more underrated scorers in the league, and George’s 24.5 PPG with 6.9 APG gives them a secondary creator who can run pick-and-roll and get into the paint. Walker Kessler averaging 14.4 PPG and 10.8 RPG provides some interior presence, but here’s the problem: this roster lacks the depth to sustain defensive possessions on the road.
Utah’s 12-22 record isn’t just about close losses — it’s about a team that can’t consistently string together stops when they need them most. The 4-11 road mark is particularly damning because it shows they can’t translate whatever home-court comfort they have into winning basketball away from Salt Lake City. With Kevin Love out for rest and Jusuf Nurkic day-to-day with a toe issue, their frontcourt depth takes another hit. Nurkic’s status matters because if he’s limited or out, Portland’s interior players — especially Clingan coming off that career night — can feast.
The Jazz just played Golden State and lost 123-114, and while they kept it competitive, Stephen Curry torched them for 31 points with six threes. That’s the blueprint: if you can generate quality looks and push pace, Utah’s defense breaks down. Portland has the personnel to do exactly that.
Portland Trail Blazers Breakdown: The Other Side
Portland’s 16-20 record doesn’t scream “dominant home favorite,” but context matters. They’re 9-11 on the road, which means they’re actually better away than at home this season (7-9), but that San Antonio win showed something important: this team is figuring out how to win with different guys stepping up. Avdija’s 25.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG, and 7.1 APG makes him a legitimate point-forward who can run the offense, and Sharpe’s 21.3 PPG gives them a secondary scorer who can create his own shot.
The loss of Jerami Grant (20.0 PPG) to an Achilles injury hurts, and Jrue Holiday being out with a calf issue removes some perimeter defense, but here’s the thing — Clingan’s emergence gives them a different dimension. His career-high 24 points and 12 rebounds against San Antonio wasn’t a fluke; it was a young big man figuring out how to dominate against inferior frontcourt competition. With Utah’s interior depth compromised, Clingan should get plenty of opportunities to produce again.
Portland’s shown they can win at home when they control the glass and push pace. Avdija’s triple-double performance (29-11-10) demonstrated his ability to impact the game in multiple ways, and Camara’s 20 points and 8 rebounds gave them another scoring option. That’s three guys who can carry the offensive load on any given night, and against a Utah defense that struggles on the road, that versatility matters.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests, but in Portland’s favor. Utah’s going to score — Markkanen and George are too talented not to — but the question is whether they can get enough stops to keep this within a possession or two. Portland’s depth advantage becomes critical here. With Avdija, Sharpe, and Clingan all capable of 20-plus point nights, and Camara showing he can contribute as a fourth option, the Blazers can attack from multiple angles.
Utah’s 4-11 road record tells you they struggle to maintain defensive intensity for 48 minutes away from home. Portland’s recent win over San Antonio showed they can lead wire-to-wire when they’re locked in, and they did it against a Spurs team that’s been competitive this season. The Jazz don’t have the same defensive structure, especially with their frontcourt depth compromised by injuries.
When you do the math over 96 possessions, Portland’s ability to generate quality looks inside with Clingan and on the perimeter with Avdija and Sharpe should create enough separation to cover 6. Utah’s going to have runs — Markkanen’s too good not to — but I keep coming back to this efficiency gap: Portland’s playing at home, they’re healthier where it matters most (their primary scorers are available), and they’re facing a Jazz team that’s 4-11 on the road for a reason.
The main risk here is if Nurkic plays and provides more interior resistance than expected, or if Markkanen and George both go off for 30-plus and keep this tight. But even accounting for that scenario, Portland’s depth should allow them to weather those runs and pull away in the fourth quarter.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Portland Trail Blazers -6.0 (-110) | 2 Units
I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there for Utah. The Jazz are 4-11 on the road, they’re dealing with frontcourt injuries that limit their interior defense, and they’re facing a Portland team that just showed it can dominate for 48 minutes with multiple contributors. Avdija’s running the offense at an elite level (25.7 PPG, 7.1 APG), Clingan’s emerging as a legitimate interior threat, and Sharpe gives them a third scoring option that Utah can’t match defensively.
The 6-point spread feels light when you factor in Portland’s ability to control pace and generate quality looks against a Utah defense that’s struggled all season on the road. Markkanen and George will score, but they won’t get enough help, and Portland’s depth advantage becomes the difference in the second half. I’m laying the 6 with confidence.
Portland covers at home, and this one feels closer to 8-10 than a push.
