The Setup: Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies are laying 2 points at home against a Sacramento Kings team that’s limping into FedExForum at 3-12, and the books are practically begging you to fade the Kings. But here’s the thing—both these squads are absolute train wrecks right now. Memphis sits at 4-11, and they’re missing their franchise player in Ja Morant for at least two more weeks with that calf strain. Sacramento’s got Domantas Sabonis sitting out with a knee issue, but they’re getting Keegan Murray back from his thumb injury, which gives them a scoring boost they desperately need.
The market’s disrespecting Sacramento here, and I get it—they’re 1-7 on the road and just got boat-raced by Oklahoma City 113-99. But Memphis is only 3-5 at home, and now Jaren Jackson Jr. is doubtful with a sprained ankle. That’s their co-leading scorer at 17.9 PPG alongside Morant. This is exactly the spot where Memphis burns you. The public’s all over the home team because Sacramento looks pathetic on paper, but I’m seeing two wounded teams in a coin-flip game where 2 points is way too many to lay.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: November 20, 2025, 8:00 ET
Venue: FedExForum
Spread: Memphis Grizzlies -2.0 (-110) | Sacramento Kings +2.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Memphis Grizzlies -133 | Sacramento Kings +109
Total: Over/Under 234.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Vegas knows something we don’t, but I’m not buying it. The oddsmakers set this at Memphis -2 because they’re banking on the public hammering a home team against the Kings’ abysmal 3-12 record. Sacramento’s sitting 14th in the Western Conference while Memphis is 12th—we’re talking bottom-feeders here, folks. The books want you to see that 1-7 road record for the Kings and assume this is an easy Memphis cover.
But let’s talk about what’s really happening. Memphis is getting -133 on the moneyline, which tells you the market has zero confidence in this spread. If Memphis was really the play, we’d see -2.5 or -3 here. Instead, we’re at a key number with dead even juice on both sides at -110. That’s the books saying, “We have no idea who wins this game, so we’re going to middle it and collect from both sides.”
The total at 234 is fascinating too. That’s a massive number for two teams struggling to find offensive rhythm. Sacramento just scored 99 against OKC, and Memphis has been inconsistent all season without Morant running the show. The books are begging you to take the over based on pace, but I’ve seen this movie before—two bad teams in a grind-it-out affair that stays under because nobody can execute in crunch time.
Sacramento Kings Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Kings are a mess, let’s not sugarcoat it. At 3-12, they’re one of the worst teams in the league right now, and that road record of 1-7 tells you everything about their inability to win away from home. They just got demolished by Oklahoma City 113-99, and they’re coming in without their best player. Domantas Sabonis is out with a knee issue, and he’s been their anchor at 17.2 PPG and 12.3 RPG. That’s a massive hole in the middle that Memphis can exploit.
But here’s where it gets interesting: Keegan Murray is making his season debut after missing time with a thumb injury. The kid was averaging solid numbers before going down, and Sacramento desperately needs another scoring option. They’ve got DeMar DeRozan putting up 18.7 PPG and Zach LaVine leading the way at 21.5 PPG, but the offense has been stagnant without enough playmaking and shooting.
The Kings are 2-5 at home and 1-7 on the road, which means they’re bad everywhere. But getting Murray back gives them a boost, and sometimes a team playing with nothing to lose is the most dangerous opponent. Sacramento knows they’re supposed to get blown out here—that’s when they might actually show up.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: The Other Side
Memphis isn’t much better, sitting at 4-11 and trying to tread water without Ja Morant. The franchise point guard is out for at least two more weeks with a calf strain, and that’s absolutely gutted their offense. Morant was averaging 17.9 PPG and 7.6 APG, and without his penetration and playmaking, the Grizzlies look lost in the halfcourt.
Jaren Jackson Jr. has been trying to carry the load at 17.9 PPG and 5.3 RPG, but now he’s doubtful for this game with a sprained right ankle. If JJJ sits, Memphis is down to Cedric Coward at 14.3 PPG as their leading scorer. That’s not going to cut it against anyone, even a Kings team that’s struggling defensively. Ty Jerome is also out with a calf injury, which thins the backcourt rotation even more.
The Grizzlies are 3-5 at home, which means they’re barely above .500 at FedExForum. They just lost to San Antonio 111-101, and that was against a Spurs team without Victor Wembanyama. If you can’t beat a shorthanded Spurs squad at home, how are you supposed to cover 2 points against anybody? Memphis is in survival mode right now, and laying points with this roster is asking for trouble.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to who’s less injured and who wants it more. Sacramento is without Sabonis, their best player, but they’re getting Murray back. Memphis is without Morant and likely without Jackson Jr., which means they’re down their two best players. That’s a massive advantage for the Kings, even on the road.
The pace is going to be slower than that 234 total suggests. Without Morant pushing the tempo for Memphis and without Sabonis anchoring the offense for Sacramento, both teams are going to struggle to generate easy buckets. This has all the makings of a ugly, grinding game where neither team gets to 115 points.
Sharp money knows what’s up here—you’re getting a live dog in Sacramento at +2. The Kings might be terrible, but so are the Grizzlies, and Memphis is more shorthanded. DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine have enough veteran savvy to keep this game close, and Murray’s return gives them fresh legs and another scoring threat. Memphis is going to have to rely on role players to cover 2 points, and I don’t trust this roster to get it done.
The injury situation is the deciding factor. If Jackson Jr. sits, Memphis loses their defensive anchor and their second-leading scorer. Sacramento might be 1-7 on the road, but they’re catching Memphis at the perfect time. This is exactly the spot where the home favorite disappoints and the ugly road dog covers.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Sacramento Kings +2 (-110)
Confidence Level: 3.5 Units
I’m hammering this number before it moves. Sacramento is getting zero respect at +2, and I’m taking the points all day long. Both teams are banged up, both teams are playing terrible basketball, but Memphis is more shorthanded with Morant out and Jackson Jr. likely sitting. The Kings are getting Murray back, and that’s a bigger boost than people realize. This game stays close throughout, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Sacramento wins outright at +109.
The market’s disrespecting Sacramento here because of that 3-12 record, but context matters. They’re catching a Memphis team that’s just as bad and more injured. Give me the points with the live dog on the road. This line’s a joke, and Vegas is hoping you fall for the trap of laying chalk with a Grizzlies team that has no business being favored by 2. Kings cover, and we cash tickets.
