The Setup: Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets
This line’s a joke—and not in the way you think. Denver’s laying 11.5 points against a Kings team that’s lost eight straight and just got boat-raced by 41 points in Memphis. Sacramento’s sitting at 3-13, they’re 1-8 on the road, and now they’re walking into Ball Arena to face a Nuggets squad that’s 12-3 and rolling with the best player on the planet. The books are begging you to take Denver and lay the double-digit number, but here’s the thing—when a line looks this obvious, that’s exactly when you need to pump the brakes.
Nikola Jokic just dropped 34 points, 10 rebounds, and 9 assists in Houston, looking like he’s playing a different sport than everyone else. Meanwhile, Sacramento just lost Domantas Sabonis to a partially torn meniscus, and they’re trotting out there with Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan trying to figure out how to stop a freight train. The market’s screaming Denver blowout, the public’s all over the Nuggets, which means we need to dig deeper before we decide if this number has any teeth or if Vegas is setting a trap.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: November 22, 2025, 10:00 ET
Venue: Ball Arena
Spread: Denver Nuggets -11.5 (-110) | Sacramento Kings +11.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Nuggets -673 | Kings +457
Total: Over/Under 236.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let’s talk about why this number sits at 11.5 and not 15 or 8. Sacramento’s on an eight-game losing streak, getting demolished by teams they should at least compete with. That Memphis beatdown was ugly—137-96—and it’s the kind of loss that makes the public think this team has completely quit. Denver’s sitting pretty at 12-3, they’re 6-1 at home, and Jokic is putting up video game numbers: 29.5 PPG, 13.0 RPG, and 11.0 APG. That’s a triple-double average, folks. The reigning MVP is doing MVP things again.
But here’s where it gets interesting. The Nuggets are dealing with some injury concerns of their own. Aaron Gordon is day-to-day with a hamstring issue and expected to miss some time. Christian Braun is out for six weeks with an ankle sprain. Julian Strawther is out with a back injury. That’s three rotation players potentially missing or limited. The Kings might be a dumpster fire right now, but they’ve still got offensive firepower with LaVine averaging 21.9 PPG and DeRozan chipping in 17.9 PPG.
The total sitting at 236.5 tells us Vegas expects a high-scoring affair, which makes sense given Denver’s offensive efficiency and Sacramento’s complete inability to stop anyone. But 11.5 points is a number that says “we know Denver should win, but we’re not confident they’ll blow the doors off.” That’s the market hedging, and I’ve seen this movie before—when a line feels too easy, it usually is.
Sacramento Kings Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Kings are in full-blown crisis mode. 3-13 record, 1-8 on the road, and they just lost their best player in Domantas Sabonis for at least a month with that partially torn meniscus. Sabonis was their anchor, averaging 17.2 PPG and 12.3 RPG, and without him, this team has no identity. They can’t defend, they can’t rebound, and they’re getting run off the floor by anyone with a pulse.
LaVine and DeRozan are talented scorers, but they’re not winning basketball games right now. LaVine’s putting up 21.9 PPG but only grabbing 3.4 RPG and dishing 2.2 APG—those aren’t winning numbers for a guy who’s supposed to be your best player. DeRozan’s at 17.9 PPG with 3.5 APG, but he’s never been a guy who can carry a team defensively. This is a squad that’s bleeding points and has no answers on either end of the floor.
That eight-game losing streak includes getting embarrassed in Memphis, and now they’re traveling to altitude in Denver on the second night of a back-to-back situation potentially. This is exactly the spot where a team like Sacramento just folds and gets run out of the gym. The market’s disrespecting them here, but honestly? They’ve earned it.
Denver Nuggets Breakdown: The Other Side
Denver is what championship-caliber teams look like. 12-3 record, 6-1 at home, and they’re doing it with Jokic playing at an otherworldly level. 29.5 PPG, 13.0 RPG, 11.0 APG—those are numbers that should be illegal. Jamal Murray is back to being a legitimate second option at 22.8 PPG and 6.5 APG, and when he had 26 points and 10 assists against Houston, you saw what this offense can do when both stars are clicking.
But let’s not ignore the injury situation. Aaron Gordon’s hamstring issue is a real concern because he’s been averaging 18.8 PPG and 5.9 RPG, and he’s their best defensive versatile forward. Without him, they lose some of that two-way punch that makes them so dangerous. Braun being out for six weeks hurts their depth, and Strawther’s absence means less shooting off the bench.
Still, when you’ve got Jokic, you’ve got a chance to beat anyone by any margin. The guy just dropped 34 against Houston and nearly had a triple-double. He’s the best player in this game by a country mile, and he’s playing at home where Denver is nearly unbeatable. The Nuggets are 6-1 at Ball Arena, and they know how to use that altitude advantage to wear teams down.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to one simple question: Can Sacramento keep it competitive for more than a quarter? The Kings are 1-8 on the road, which tells you everything you need to know about their ability to win away from home. Denver is 6-1 at home, and they’re not losing to a team that just got demolished by 41 points.
The pace and tempo favor Denver. They control the game with Jokic orchestrating everything, and Sacramento has no answer for him. Without Sabonis, who’s going to guard the Joker? Who’s going to rebound against a guy averaging 13 boards a game? The Kings are going to get carved up in the pick-and-roll, and Murray is going to have a field day attacking their perimeter defense.
The total at 236.5 is intriguing because both teams can score, but Sacramento’s defense is so bad that Denver might hit 130 by themselves. The question is whether the Kings can keep pace, and based on what we saw in Memphis—where they scored just 96 points—I’m not confident they can.
Sharp money knows what’s up here: Denver wins this game, probably easily. But 11.5 points is a lot to lay against a team with NBA-caliber offensive players, even if they’re playing terrible basketball right now. This is the kind of spot where Denver goes up 20 in the third quarter, pulls their starters, and the Kings make it semi-respectable in garbage time.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m not overthinking this one. Denver wins this game—that’s not even a question. But laying 11.5 points against professional basketball players, even bad ones, makes me nervous. The Nuggets have injury concerns with Gordon likely out, and Sacramento still has enough offensive talent to keep it from being a complete blowout if Denver takes their foot off the gas.
My play: Kings +11.5 for 2 units. I’m taking the points all day long. Yes, Sacramento is terrible. Yes, they’re on an eight-game losing streak. But this number is inflated because of public perception, and I’ve seen this movie before—the team that looks dead in the water finds a way to cover the big number because the favorite gets comfortable. Denver wins 125-110, and we cash the ticket with the points.
I’m hammering this number before it moves, because if Gordon is officially ruled out, this line could tick up even higher. Give me the bad team with the points against a Denver squad that’s dealing with injuries and might not have the depth to blow this game wide open. Kings +11.5—book it.
