Golden State is laying a massive number on Friday, but with the Kings’ roster decimated by injuries, is any spread too large? Bash dives into the handicapping data to see if the Warriors’ stars can maintain their intensity for a full 48 minutes.
The Setup: Kings at Warriors
Golden State is laying 14 points at home against Sacramento on Friday night, and on the surface, this number makes sense. The Warriors sit at 20-18 and have been solid at Chase Center with a 12-5 home record. The Kings, meanwhile, are limping into this one at 8-29 overall and just 3-16 on the road. But here’s the thing — this isn’t just about records. When you factor in that Sacramento is missing both Domantas Sabonis and Keegan Murray, two of their most important players on both ends of the floor, this spread starts to look less like a trap and more like a reflection of reality.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I’m not scared of the number. Sacramento’s offense has been struggling all season, and now they’re down their primary facilitating big and a key wing defender. Golden State, on the other hand, just watched Stephen Curry drop 31 points with a clutch step-back three against Milwaukee. The Warriors are getting Gary Payton II back, which adds another defensive wrinkle. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests — but it narrows it in Golden State’s favor, not Sacramento’s.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 9, 2026, 10:00 ET
Venue: Chase Center
Spread: Golden State Warriors -14.0 (-110) | Sacramento Kings +14.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Golden State Warriors -769 | Sacramento Kings +503
Total: Over/Under 229.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Warriors -14 for a few clear reasons, and none of them are arbitrary. First, Golden State is 12-5 at Chase Center, which means they’re protecting home court at a high level. Second, Sacramento is 3-16 on the road, which tells you everything you need to know about their ability to compete away from home. But the real driver here is personnel.
Sabonis is averaging 17.2 points and 12.3 rebounds per game, and his absence completely changes Sacramento’s offensive identity. He’s their primary playmaker in the halfcourt, and without him, the Kings lose their most efficient scoring hub. Keegan Murray’s ankle sprain removes another 15-plus points per game and their best perimeter defender. Rookie Maxime Raynaud has been starting in Sabonis’ place, but he’s not providing anywhere near the same offensive gravity or passing vision.
On the other side, Curry is averaging 28.8 points, 4.5 assists, and 4.0 rebounds per game, and he’s been especially lethal at home. Jimmy Butler is chipping in 19.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists, giving Golden State a second legitimate creator. That two-headed attack is more than enough to exploit a Kings defense that’s already struggling to contain anyone. The moneyline sitting at -769 tells you the market expects a Warriors win — the question is whether they can cover the 14.
Sacramento Kings Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Kings are in a tough spot, and it’s not just about their 8-29 record. Zach LaVine is leading the team with 20.2 points per game, but he’s not efficient enough to carry this offense on the road. DeMar DeRozan is adding 18.4 points and 3.8 assists, but his mid-range game doesn’t generate the same kind of offensive efficiency you need to keep pace with a team like Golden State.
Here’s the thing — without Sabonis, Sacramento loses their best rebounder and their most reliable interior presence. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts. The Kings are going to struggle to generate second-chance opportunities, and they’re going to have a hard time protecting the rim against Curry’s drives and Butler’s attacking style. Raynaud is a capable fill-in, but he’s not providing the same offensive creation or defensive anchoring.
On the road, Sacramento is 3-16, and that’s not a fluke. They don’t have the depth or the defensive discipline to hang with playoff-caliber teams away from home. LaVine and DeRozan can get buckets, but they’re not going to outscore Golden State’s two-way efficiency over 48 minutes.
Golden State Warriors Breakdown: The Other Side
Golden State is 20-18 overall, but that record doesn’t tell the full story. At home, they’re 12-5, and that’s where they’ve been most dangerous. Curry is still playing at an elite level, averaging 28.8 points per game, and his ability to stretch the floor and create off the dribble is exactly what you want against a depleted Kings defense.
Butler’s addition has given the Warriors a secondary playmaker who can operate in the mid-post and facilitate for others. His 19.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game provide a different look than what opposing defenses are used to seeing from Golden State. Jonathan Kuminga is contributing 11.8 points and 6.2 rebounds, and his athleticism gives the Warriors another weapon in transition.
The Warriors are getting Payton II back, which adds another perimeter defender who can pressure the ball and disrupt passing lanes. That’s critical against a Kings backcourt that’s already struggling to generate clean looks. Golden State’s depth and versatility give them multiple ways to attack Sacramento’s weaknesses, and at home, they’ve been executing at a high level.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
Once you dig into the matchup data, this game comes down to a few key factors. First, pace and possessions. Golden State plays at a controlled tempo at home, and they’re going to dictate the rhythm of this game. Sacramento doesn’t have the personnel to speed things up or slow things down effectively without Sabonis running the offense.
Second, efficiency gaps. Curry and Butler are both scoring at a higher clip than anyone on Sacramento’s roster, and they’re doing it with better shot selection. LaVine and DeRozan can get their points, but they’re not going to match Golden State’s offensive efficiency over 95-100 possessions. When you do that math over a full game, the margin starts to widen.
Third, rebounding and second chances. Sabonis’ absence is massive here. The Warriors are going to control the glass, and that’s going to lead to more possessions and more opportunities to extend leads. Sacramento doesn’t have the size or the physicality to compete on the boards without their starting center.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. Golden State is better on both ends of the floor, and they’re at home. Sacramento is missing two of their best players and has been abysmal on the road all season. The Warriors don’t need to blow them out — they just need to play their game and let the talent gap do the work.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Golden State Warriors -14.0 (-110) | 2 Units
I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there for Sacramento. The Kings are too shorthanded and too inefficient on the road to keep this within two possessions. Golden State has the firepower, the depth, and the home-court advantage to cover this number comfortably.
The main risk here is if the Warriors take their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter with a comfortable lead, but given their recent inconsistency and the fact that they’re still fighting for playoff positioning, I don’t see them coasting. Curry and Butler are both playing big minutes, and this is a game they should dominate from start to finish.
Lay the points with Golden State. This matchup is exactly what the line suggests — a mismatch.
