Xfinity Mobile Arena hosts an ABC showdown between Jalen Brunson and Joel Embiid. Bryan Bash’s ATS pick for this Saturday matinee breaks down the scheduling disadvantage for Philly after an overtime thriller and how it creates a live dog opportunity for the Knickerbockers.
The Setup: Knicks at 76ers
The Knicks are getting a point on the road in Philadelphia on Saturday afternoon, and that’s barely a line at all. New York checks in at 26-18 overall but just 8-12 away from MSG, while the Sixers sit at 24-19 with a perfectly mediocre 12-12 home mark. This spread screams uncertainty, and the biggest swing factor is Karl-Anthony Towns’ questionable status with back spasms. Towns is averaging 20.8 points and 11.5 rebounds this season, and if he sits, Mitchell Robinson steps into the starting lineup against a Sixers frontcourt that just got 32 points, 15 rebounds, and 10 assists from Joel Embiid in a Thursday overtime win over Houston. The market is pricing in roster uncertainty on both sides—Embiid and Paul George are both probable but being monitored—but the real edge here comes from understanding how pace and efficiency shift if Towns can’t go.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 24, 2026, 3:00 ET
Venue: Xfinity Mobile Arena
TV Network: ABC
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Knicks -1.0 (-110) | 76ers +1.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Knicks -115 | 76ers -106
- Total: Over 229.0 (-110) | Under 229.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
A one-point spread is essentially a pick’em with a tiebreaker, and the market landed here because both teams are dealing with injury uncertainty and neither has a clear home-court advantage. The Sixers are 12-12 at home, which is flat-out mediocre for a team with this much talent. The Knicks are 8-12 on the road, which is worse. But New York just demolished Brooklyn 120-66 in the most lopsided win in franchise history, snapping a four-game losing streak. Jalen Brunson dropped 20 points and Landry Shamet went 6-for-6 from three in that blowout, so the Knicks have momentum. Meanwhile, Philly needed overtime to beat Houston on Thursday, with Tyrese Maxey scoring six of his 36 points in the extra period to pull it out. Embiid played 46 minutes in that game, which is a massive workload on short rest.
The total at 229.0 reflects two offenses that can score but also two teams that have been inconsistent. Brunson is averaging 27.9 points per game and Maxey is at 30.1, so there’s star power on both sides. But if Towns sits, the Knicks lose their second-leading scorer and a guy who’s been averaging 17.3 points over his last 10 games. That’s a significant offensive hit, and it also changes the rebounding dynamic. Embiid averaged 8.1 rebounds in January, but he’s facing a Knicks team that could be starting Mitchell Robinson, who’s a rim protector but not the same offensive threat as Towns. The line is tight because the market doesn’t know who’s playing, and that’s where the edge lives.
Knicks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Knicks are built around Brunson’s scoring and Towns’ versatility, but Mikal Bridges has been a steady third option at 15.8 points per game. Brunson is the engine—27.9 points and 6.1 assists per game—and he’s the guy who has to carry the load if Towns can’t go. Over his last 10 games, Towns has averaged 17.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists in 29.8 minutes, so losing that production would force Brunson to be even more aggressive. The problem is that the Knicks are 8-12 on the road, which means they’ve struggled to win away from home even when healthy. The blowout win over Brooklyn was encouraging, but the Nets are a mess right now, so that result doesn’t tell us much about how New York will handle a Sixers team that just pushed Houston to overtime.
If Towns plays, the Knicks have the size and skill to match up with Embiid and George. If he doesn’t, Robinson steps in, and that’s a major downgrade on offense. Robinson doesn’t space the floor or create his own shot, which means the Knicks would lean even more heavily on Brunson and Bridges to generate offense. That’s a lot to ask on the road against a Sixers defense that’s been solid at home. The Knicks need Towns to play, and even then, their road struggles are a real concern.
76ers Breakdown: The Other Side
The Sixers are getting healthier, and that’s a problem for the Knicks. Embiid is probable after playing 46 minutes on Thursday, and even though that’s a heavy workload, he looked great—32 points, 15 rebounds, 10 assists. Over 10 January appearances, Embiid has averaged 27.2 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 4.2 assists while shooting 53.7 percent from the field. That’s elite production, and if he’s on the floor Saturday, he’s the best player in this game. Maxey is averaging 30.1 points and 6.8 assists this season, and he’s been the primary ball-handler with George playing more off the ball. George is also probable and has averaged 14.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.4 assists over his last five games, so the Sixers are close to full strength.
The issue for Philly is that 12-12 home record. They’re not dominant at Xfinity Mobile Arena, and they’ve been inconsistent all season. The overtime win over Houston was a grind, and Embiid’s minutes load is a concern on short rest. But if the Knicks are without Towns, the Sixers have a clear size and skill advantage in the frontcourt. Embiid can dominate Robinson in the post, and George and Maxey can attack a Knicks defense that would be scrambling to adjust rotations. The Sixers are the better team if everyone plays, but the margin is thin enough that the line reflects real uncertainty.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to Towns’ availability and how Embiid handles the minutes load on short rest. If Towns plays, the Knicks have the offensive balance to keep this close. Brunson and Towns can generate efficient offense, and Bridges provides a third scoring option. But if Towns sits, the Knicks lose their second-leading scorer and a guy who’s been averaging 11.0 rebounds over his last 10 games. That’s a massive hole, and it forces Brunson to carry even more of the offensive load on the road.
Embiid played 46 minutes on Thursday, and that’s a lot of wear on a guy who’s been managing a right ankle injury. But he looked sharp in that game, shooting 53.7 percent from the field in January, and he’s the best player on the floor if he’s healthy. Maxey is averaging 30.1 points per game, and he’s been efficient as the primary ball-handler. The Sixers have the talent advantage if everyone plays, but their 12-12 home record suggests they’re not dominant at home.
The total at 229.0 is high, but both teams have the firepower to get there if the pace is right. Brunson and Maxey are both elite scorers, and Embiid can dominate in the paint. But if Towns sits, the Knicks lose a significant offensive weapon, and that could push this game under. The key is whether Embiid can stay on the floor for 35-plus minutes after playing 46 on Thursday. If he’s limited, the Knicks have a real chance to steal this one on the road.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m waiting on the Towns news before locking anything in, but if he plays, I like the Knicks getting a point on the road. New York has the offensive balance to keep this close, and Brunson is good enough to carry the load if needed. If Towns sits, I’m flipping to the Sixers -1.0, because Embiid and Maxey should be able to dominate a Knicks team that’s missing its second-best player. The Sixers’ 12-12 home record is a concern, but they have the talent advantage if Towns is out.
The safer play is the total. I’m leaning Under 229.0 for 2 units. Embiid played 46 minutes on Thursday, and that’s a lot of wear on short rest. If he’s limited or if Towns sits, the pace slows down and the scoring drops. Both teams have been inconsistent offensively, and the Knicks’ road struggles suggest they’ll grind this one out. The risk is that both offenses get hot and this turns into a shootout, but the minutes load on Embiid and the uncertainty around Towns make the under the smarter play.
BASH’S BEST BET: Under 229.0 for 2 units.
If Towns plays, I’ll add Knicks +1.0 for 1 unit. If he sits, Sixers -1.0 for 1 unit. But the under is the play regardless of who suits up.
