With identical 23-9 records, the Knicks and Spurs face off in a New Year’s Eve battle for conference standing. Bash breaks down the point spread and why the potential absence of Stephon Castle and Devin Vassell creates a massive opening for New York’s elite guard play.
The Setup: Knicks at Spurs
The Knicks are getting +1.5 on the road in San Antonio, and on the surface, this number makes sense. You’ve got two teams sitting at 23-9, both holding down the second spot in their respective conferences. The market is essentially calling this a pick’em with a slight nod to the home team. But here’s the thing — once you dig into how these rosters actually match up and what kind of game this becomes in terms of pace and efficiency, that small cushion for San Antonio starts to look generous.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I’m leaning toward the road dog. The Knicks just put up 130 in New Orleans with Jalen Brunson dropping 28 and 10 assists, capping it with clutch buckets down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Spurs got handled by Cleveland 113-101 at home despite Victor Wembanyama’s presence. The Cavaliers had seven players in double figures and controlled that game from the efficiency side. That’s not just noise — it’s a preview of how New York can attack this matchup.
New York’s road record sits at 7-7, which isn’t dominant, but their offensive firepower with Brunson averaging 29.4 points and 6.6 assists alongside Karl-Anthony Towns at 22.0 points and 11.9 rebounds gives them the kind of two-man punch that can travel. San Antonio is 11-4 at home, but Devin Vassell is out, and Stephon Castle is questionable with a thumb sprain. When you start losing rotation pieces against a Knicks team that’s 15-2 at home because they can defend and execute, the margin shrinks fast.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 31, 2025, 7:00 ET
Venue: Frost Bank Center
Spread: Knicks +1.5 (-110) | Spurs -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Knicks +100 | Spurs -122
Total: Over/Under 237.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on San Antonio -1.5 because both teams have identical records and the Spurs are playing at home. That’s the baseline logic. Add in Wembanyama’s rim protection — he’s averaging 24.0 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 3.5 assists — and you’ve got a legitimate defensive anchor who can alter shots and control the paint. The acquisition of De’Aaron Fox, who’s putting up 21.6 points and 6.0 assists, gives them another dynamic scorer and playmaker.
But here’s where the line starts to crack under scrutiny. The Spurs are dealing with injury concerns that directly impact their perimeter depth. Vassell is out with a right adductor strain, and Castle’s status is questionable with a left thumb sprain. Castle has been averaging 18.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 7.0 assists — those aren’t just empty numbers, that’s real usage and playmaking that has to get redistributed if he can’t go or is limited.
On the flip side, the Knicks are relatively healthy. Mitchell Robinson is out, but he’s been out, and they’ve adjusted their rotation accordingly. Tyler Kolek is probable, and Ariel Hukporti is questionable but neither are rotation cornerstones. The Knicks’ core trio of Brunson, Towns, and Mikal Bridges (averaging 16.4 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.4 assists) is intact and rolling.
The total sitting at 237.5 suggests the market expects a high-scoring affair, which makes sense given both teams’ offensive capabilities. But I keep coming back to this efficiency gap — when the Knicks have their full arsenal and the Spurs are potentially down rotation pieces, the margin of error for San Antonio shrinks considerably.
Knicks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
New York’s strength is obvious: they can score from multiple levels with elite shot-makers. Brunson at 29.4 points per game is having an All-NBA caliber season, and he’s proven he can close games on the road, exactly like he did in New Orleans with those late buckets. Towns gives them a legitimate second star who can operate in the post, stretch the floor, and clean the glass at 11.9 rebounds per night.
The addition of Bridges has been crucial for their versatility. He’s not just a 16-point scorer — he’s a two-way player who can guard multiple positions and facilitate within the offense. That matters against a Spurs team that will try to run offense through Wembanyama and Fox. Having a defender who can switch and stay in front of Fox while also contributing offensively keeps the Knicks balanced.
The concern with New York is that 7-7 road record. They’re clearly a better team at home (15-2), which suggests they benefit from their environment and routine. But when you look at the quality of their losses versus their wins, they’ve shown they can compete anywhere when Brunson and Towns are both engaged. The recent win in New Orleans, where they scored 130 and Brunson facilitated 10 assists, shows they’re not just hunting shots — they’re moving the ball and creating quality looks.
Spurs Breakdown: The Other Side
San Antonio’s identity is built around Wembanyama’s unique skill set. At 24.0 points and 11.7 rebounds, he’s a legitimate two-way force who can protect the rim, switch onto the perimeter, and create mismatches offensively. The addition of Fox was supposed to solve their halfcourt creation issues, and to his credit, he’s been productive at 21.6 points and 6.0 assists. That’s a legitimate one-two punch.
But the Spurs’ depth is being tested right now. Vassell being out removes a key perimeter scorer and defender. Castle’s questionable status is even more concerning because he’s been their third-leading scorer at 18.5 points while also leading the team in assists at 7.0 per game. If he can’t play or is compromised, suddenly you’re asking Fox and Wembanyama to carry a much heavier offensive load against a Knicks defense that can load up on them.
The recent loss to Cleveland at home is instructive. The Cavaliers spread the scoring around with seven players in double figures and controlled the game through efficiency rather than star power. That’s exactly the blueprint for how New York can attack this game. With Brunson, Towns, and Bridges all capable of creating their own offense, plus role players who can knock down open looks, the Knicks don’t need one guy to go nuclear — they just need their system to function.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided on the perimeter and in transition. Wembanyama will get his numbers in the halfcourt, but the question is whether San Antonio has enough perimeter creation and shooting to keep pace with New York’s offensive versatility. The Knicks can run offense through Brunson pick-and-rolls with Towns, post-ups for Towns against smaller defenders, or isolation sets for Bridges. That’s three different ways to attack without even getting into their role players.
The Spurs, if Castle is limited or out, become more predictable. Fox will have the ball in his hands, and Wembanyama will operate as the hub. That’s not a bad offense, but it’s simpler to defend when you can key in on two guys. The Knicks can throw Bridges on Fox, use Towns to body up Wembanyama when he’s on the perimeter, and force San Antonio’s role players to beat them.
The pace of this game also favors New York’s style. At 237.5 for the total, we’re talking about a game that should have plenty of possessions. The more possessions, the more opportunities for the Knicks’ superior depth and shot-making to show up. When you do the math over 95-100 possessions, the team with more reliable scoring options and fewer injury concerns has the edge.
I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. San Antonio’s 11-4 home record is solid, but they’re catching a Knicks team that just showed offensive firepower in New Orleans and has the personnel to exploit San Antonio’s current rotation issues. The main risk here is Wembanyama having a dominant two-way game where he controls the paint on both ends, but even then, New York has enough perimeter scoring to stay within striking distance.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Knicks +1.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’m taking the Knicks +1.5 on the road, and I feel good about it. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests. You’ve got two teams with identical records, but one team is healthier and has more offensive versatility right now. Brunson at 29.4 points and 6.6 assists can control the game in crunch time, Towns at 22.0 points and 11.9 rebounds gives them a mismatch problem, and Bridges provides the two-way balance they need.
San Antonio’s injury situation with Vassell out and Castle questionable is a real problem against a team this talented. The Spurs showed vulnerability at home against Cleveland, and the Knicks have a similar ability to spread the scoring and control possessions. Even if this game comes down to the final possession, I’ll take the points with the team that has more ways to score and fewer question marks in the rotation.
The main risk is Wembanyama going off for 35 and controlling the paint, but the Knicks have enough shooting and playmaking to counter that. Give me New York getting a free point and a half in what should be a tight, competitive game between two legitimate conference contenders.
