The Knicks roll into Portland looking to hand the Blazers their first loss in six games at the Moda Center. Our analytical preview explains why the matchup between Brunson and a hot Portland backcourt makes the visitors a strong ATS pick for Sunday.
The Setup: Knicks at Trail Blazers
The Knicks are laying 4.5 points at the Moda Center on Sunday, and on the surface, this number makes sense. New York sits at 24-14 and ranks second in the Eastern Conference. Portland is 19-20, fighting for playoff positioning at ninth in the West. The talent gap favors the Knicks, especially with Jalen Brunson averaging 29.0 points and Karl-Anthony Towns putting up 21.3 points with 11.5 boards per night.
Here’s the thing — this line exists in a specific context that the market is pricing correctly, but I’m not sure it accounts for what’s actually happening on the floor right now. The Knicks are 7-10 on the road this season. That’s not a small sample size anymore. Meanwhile, Portland has won five straight games and is 10-9 at home. Deni Avdija is playing out of his mind at 26.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 7.0 assists per game. When you factor in rest, momentum, and how this matchup actually plays out in a pace-up environment, that 4.5-point margin starts to feel stretched.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I think there’s value on the other side.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: New York Knicks at Portland Trail Blazers
Date: January 11, 2026
Time: 6:00 PM ET
Venue: Moda Center at the Rose Quarter
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Knicks -4.5 (-110) | Trail Blazers +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Knicks -185 | Trail Blazers +151
- Total: 232.5 (Over -110 | Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is giving New York 4.5 points because the talent differential is real. Brunson is one of the league’s most efficient shot creators, and Towns gives them a legitimate two-way anchor. Mikal Bridges adds 15.9 points and quality perimeter defense. On paper, the Knicks should be able to control this game.
But the spread also reflects New York’s road struggles. That 7-10 road record isn’t just bad luck — it’s a pattern. The Knicks are a different team away from Madison Square Garden, where they’re 16-4. They just lost to Phoenix 112-107 on Friday night, and now they’re facing a Trail Blazers team that’s riding a five-game winning streak and just beat Houston 111-105 at home.
Portland’s 10-9 home record doesn’t jump off the page, but context matters. They’re 9-11 on the road, which means they’re actually playing better basketball at the Moda Center than their overall record suggests. And with Avdija emerging as a legitimate go-to scorer alongside Shaedon Sharpe (21.5 PPG) and the eventual return of Jerami Grant (20.0 PPG when healthy), this team has offensive firepower that can keep pace with anyone.
The total of 232.5 tells you the market expects this to be a high-possession game. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts. When Portland plays fast and gets Sharpe and Avdija in transition, they’re dangerous. The Knicks prefer to slow it down and work through Brunson in the halfcourt. That clash of styles matters more than the line suggests.
Knicks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
New York’s offense runs through Brunson, and he’s been brilliant at 29.0 points and 6.3 assists per game. Towns gives them a second creator who can score inside and stretch the floor. Bridges provides spacing and defensive versatility. When this team is clicking, they’re one of the best in the East.
The problem is consistency on the road. That 7-10 mark away from home isn’t an aberration — it’s who they’ve been this season. They lost to Phoenix on Friday, and now they’re flying to Portland for a Sunday night game. The rest disadvantage isn’t extreme, but it’s real.
Josh Hart is questionable with a sprained right ankle, and while he’s been upgraded from out, his availability is uncertain. If Hart sits, Miles McBride and Jordan Clarkson will see more minutes, but neither provides the same defensive intensity or rebounding. Guerschon Yabusele is also questionable with a quad contusion, though his impact has been minimal lately.
The main risk here is that the Knicks are simply the better team and find a way to impose their will. Brunson can take over games, and Towns is a matchup problem for Portland’s frontcourt. But I keep coming back to this efficiency gap — New York hasn’t proven they can consistently win on the road, and Portland is playing their best basketball of the season.
Trail Blazers Breakdown: The Other Side
Portland’s surge is real. Five straight wins, including victories over quality opponents. Avdija has been the catalyst, averaging 26.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 7.0 assists. Those aren’t empty numbers — he’s running the offense, creating for others, and attacking mismatches. Sharpe adds explosive scoring at 21.5 points per game, and Toumani Camara just dropped 25 in the win over Houston.
The Trail Blazers are 10-9 at home, and that’s significant. They defend better at the Moda Center, and they get the crowd involved in transition. When they push pace and force opponents into scramble situations, they’re tough to stop.
Jerami Grant remains out with an Achilles injury, which is a loss, but Caleb Love has stepped up in his absence. Jrue Holiday is questionable after missing time with a calf strain, and if he returns, even on a minutes restriction, he gives Portland another playmaker and defender.
Once you dig into the matchup data, Portland’s strengths align perfectly with New York’s weaknesses. The Knicks struggle on the road, and the Trail Blazers thrive at home. Portland wants to play fast, and New York’s road defense hasn’t been disciplined enough to consistently get stops and slow the game down.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to pace and execution. Portland will try to push tempo off makes and misses, getting Sharpe and Avdija in space before New York’s defense is set. The Knicks will want to slow it down, work through Brunson, and use Towns in the post and at the elbows.
When you do the math over 95-100 possessions, Portland’s offensive efficiency at home gives them a real chance to stay within this number. Avdija is playing at an All-Star level, and Sharpe is one of the league’s most explosive scorers. The Knicks don’t have a great answer for Avdija’s size and playmaking, and if Hart sits, their perimeter defense takes another hit.
New York’s road struggles are the key variable. They’re 7-10 away from home, and they just played Friday night in Phoenix. Portland is rested, playing at home, and riding momentum. I’ve accounted for the talent gap — and it still doesn’t get there.
The total of 232.5 feels about right given the pace Portland wants to play. But the spread? That’s where the value is. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Trail Blazers +4.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’m taking Portland plus the points at home. The Knicks are the better team on paper, but they’ve been inconsistent on the road all season, and the Trail Blazers are playing their best basketball right now. Avdija is a legitimate problem, Sharpe can score in bunches, and the Moda Center crowd will be a factor.
New York’s 7-10 road record tells you everything you need to know. They’re not built to dominate away from home, and Portland has the offensive firepower to keep this close or win outright. The main risk here is Brunson taking over in the fourth quarter, but even if he does, I like Portland’s chances to stay within the number.
This is a situational play backed by season-long data. Give me the home dog with momentum and a star playing at an elite level. Trail Blazers +4.5 for 2 units.
