The books are daring bettors to take the Knicks, but Bryan Bash isn’t buying the hype. Miami’s elite shooting, rebounding edge, and home dominance make this line look like a setup.
The Setup: New York at Miami
This line’s a joke. The Knicks are 2-0, they just demolished the Celtics by 10, and the books have them laying just 2.5-3 points against a Miami team that’s 1-1 and just lost Terry Rozier to a gambling scandal? I’ve seen this movie before, and it never ends well for the public. The Heat are getting disrespected here, and I’m taking the points all day long.
New York’s undefeated start looks pretty on paper, but let me tell you what the numbers really say. The Knicks are averaging 112 PPG while allowing 103 PPG – solid, but nothing that screams “blow out a desperate Heat team at home.” Meanwhile, Miami just hung 146 on Memphis. Yeah, it was against the Grizzlies, but that’s the kind of offensive explosion that tells you the Heat can score when they need to.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Sunday, October 26, 2025 at 6:00 PM ET
- Venue: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
- Spread: Knicks -2.5 (MyBookie) / -3.0 (Bovada)
- Total: 228.5 (MyBookie) / 229.0 (Bovada)
- Moneyline: Knicks -139 to -150 / Heat +113 to +130
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The books are begging you to take the Knicks here. Look at the market psychology: New York just went 2-0 with wins over Cleveland and Boston – two of the better teams in the East. The public sees that undefeated record and thinks “easy money.” Meanwhile, Miami’s 1-1, just lost their starting guard to a federal gambling investigation, and nobody wants to touch them.
But here’s what sharp money knows: Miami shoots 51.3% from the field this season compared to New York’s 40.7%. That’s an 8.06% shooting differential in the Heat’s favor when you factor in defense. The Heat also average 52 rebounds per game to the Knicks’ 50.5, and they’re dishing out 30 assists per game compared to New York’s 22.5.
This number screams trap. The Knicks’ defense has been elite at 103 PPG allowed, ranked #1 in the league, but they haven’t faced an offense like Miami’s yet. The Heat just put up 146 points – that wasn’t a fluke, that was an offense finding its rhythm. When a team shoots over 50% from the field and controls the glass, they’re not getting blown out at home.
New York Knicks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Knicks are rolling with Karl-Anthony Towns averaging 22.5 PPG and 12 rebounds, while Jalen Brunson’s putting up 27 PPG with 5 assists. That’s a legit 1-2 punch, and it’s working. New York’s 2-0 start is built on defense – holding Cleveland to 111 and Boston to 95.
But here’s the concern: OG Anunoby dealt with a cramp in the fourth quarter of the Celtics game. While he could have returned if needed and the injury wasn’t serious, he’s been huge for their defense, averaging 8 rebounds and playing lockdown perimeter defense. Any minutes restriction or lingering effects from that cramp could impact their ability to contain Norman Powell and the Heat’s wings.
The other red flag? 40.7% shooting as a team. That’s brutal. Brunson’s been bailed out by getting to the line (10+ free throws per game), but this isn’t sustainable on the road against a team shooting 51%. When your efficiency is that far apart, the points will come.
Miami Heat Breakdown: The Other Side
Miami’s 1-1 record doesn’t tell the whole story. Yes, they lost to Orlando 125-121, but that was a competitive game against a quality opponent. Then they turned around and absolutely steamrolled Memphis 146-114. Bam Adebayo dropped 24 points in that game while Norman Powell added 15 – that’s your offensive core right there.
The Heat are shooting 51.3% from the field as a team – that’s elite. Powell’s been solid through two games, averaging 21.5 PPG on strong efficiency, and Adebayo’s controlling the paint. Add in Andrew Wiggins chipping in 10 PPG through the first two games, and this isn’t a one-dimensional offense.
The Rozier suspension could actually help Miami’s ball movement. They’re already averaging 30 assists per game with a 1.67 assist-to-turnover ratio. With Davion Mitchell running point and Jaime Jaquez Jr. playing solid minutes, they’ve got enough depth to absorb the loss.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and at the free throw line. Miami dominates the boards at 52 RPG compared to New York’s 50.5, and that’s going to matter in a tight game. The Heat also get to the line more efficiently and convert better once they’re there.
The historical trends back Miami at home too. According to the betting data, Miami is 11-4 SU in its last 15 home games against New York, and they’re 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home matchups with the Knicks. The Knicks might be 5-1 SU in the last six meetings overall, but they’re 4-11 SU in their last 15 trips to Miami. That home court matters.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 5 meetings between these teams, and with Miami averaging 133.5 PPG at home and New York’s offense humming at 112 PPG, this game’s got shootout written all over it. Both teams can push pace – Miami’s offensive efficiency is ranked 3rd in the league at 133.50, while New York checks in at 26th with 112.00.
The key matchup? Bam Adebayo vs Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns has the scoring edge, but Adebayo’s been more efficient and he’s the better defender. If Bam can slow Towns down and Powell keeps lighting up the perimeter, Miami covers easily.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
BASH’S BEST BET: MIAMI HEAT +3.0 (-105)
I’m hammering the Heat plus the points before this line moves any more. Miami’s 51% shooting compared to New York’s 40% is too big of a gap to ignore, especially at home. Add in the rebounding advantage, the assist differential, and the fact that the Knicks might be dealing with any lingering effects from OG Anunoby’s fourth-quarter cramp, and this is a gift.
The market’s disrespecting Miami because of the Rozier news, but this team just scored 146 points without him. They’re deep, they’re efficient, and they’re playing at home where they’re historically dominant against New York. The Knicks are a good team, but laying 3 on the road against a team shooting 10% better than you? That’s how you get burned.
The books know something we don’t? Maybe. But I’m not buying it. Load up on Miami +3.0 before the sharp money floods in and this line disappears. This is exactly the spot where New York burns you.
