The Celtics are missing their two top scorers. Bryan Bash breaks down the market trap and reveals his high-confidence ATS pick on the road-warrior Lakers.
The Setup: Lakers at Celtics
The books posted this like they were scared someone would actually bet it. The Celtics are laying 6.5 points at home against a Lakers squad that’s sitting at 16-5 and rolling without their superstar? I’ve seen this movie before, and it usually ends with the public getting burned. Boston’s at 13-9, playing without Jaylen Brown (check status) AND Jayson Tatum is still out from that Achilles issue. Meanwhile, LA just pulled off a buzzer-beater in Toronto without Luka Doncic, showing they’ve got depth and grit. The books are begging you to take the Celtics here, banking on the TD Garden mystique and that shiny Boston name. But Austin Reaves is averaging 28.9 points per game this season, and this Lakers team is 9-2 on the road. The market’s disrespecting LA here, and I’m paying attention. When you see a 6.5-point spread favoring a team missing its second-best player against a road warrior squad that’s covering at an elite clip, you don’t just notice it—you capitalize on it.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 5, 2025, 7:00 ET
Venue: TD Garden
Spread: Celtics -6.5 (-110) / Lakers +6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Celtics -256 / Lakers +204
Total: 223.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Vegas knows something we don’t, but I’m not buying it. The Celtics are getting 6.5 points at home, and the moneyline at -256 tells you the books expect Boston to win straight up. But let’s talk about what’s really happening here. The Lakers are 16-5 without Luka Doncic playing every night—that’s not a typo. They’re second in the Western Conference, and they just proved in Toronto they can win games in crunch time with LeBron James facilitating and role players stepping up. Rui Hachimura hit the game-winner, and that’s the kind of confidence that carries over.
Boston’s 13-9 record looks solid until you realize they’re without Jaylen Brown, who’s averaging 29.0 points per game. Sure, Derrick White just dropped 30 on Washington, and Jordan Walsh had a career night with 22, but that was against the Wizards—a team you’re supposed to demolish by 45 points. The Celtics are 7-4 at home, which is good but not dominant. The Lakers are 9-2 on the road, which is exceptional. This is exactly the spot where Boston burns you. The public sees the Celtics at home and thinks it’s an easy cover. Sharp money knows what’s up here—this line should be closer to 4 or 4.5, not 6.5. That extra two points is the trap, and I’m taking the points all day long.
Lakers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Let’s get into what makes this Lakers team dangerous. Austin Reaves is having a breakout season at 28.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 6.8 assists per game. That’s not a role player—that’s a legitimate second option who can carry an offense. Deandre Ayton is providing 15.8 points and 8.6 rebounds, giving them interior presence. And even though Luka Doncic is out for personal reasons and Marcus Smart is sidelined with a back injury, this team just won on the road in Toronto with LeBron James making the game-winning assist.
The Lakers are 9-2 on the road, which is one of the best road records in the league. They’re not just winning—they’re covering. That 16-5 overall record puts them second in the Western Conference, and they’ve shown they can win in different ways. When you’re getting 6.5 points with a team that’s proven they can hang with anybody, anywhere, you take it. This isn’t a squad that’s going to roll over because they’re missing a star. They’ve got veteran leadership, scoring punch, and the kind of confidence that comes from winning close games on the road.
Celtics Breakdown: The Other Side
Boston’s in a tough spot here, and I don’t care what the line says. Jaylen Brown is out with an illness, and he’s their leading scorer at 29.0 points per game. Jayson Tatum is still out with that Achilles issue that’s kept him sidelined. That’s your top two offensive weapons sitting on the bench. Derrick White and Payton Pritchard are solid—White’s averaging 17.0 points and 5.3 assists, Pritchard’s at 17.3 points and 4.9 assists—but they’re not Brown and Tatum.
The Celtics are 13-9 overall and 7-4 at home. That home record is decent, but it’s not the kind of dominant home-court advantage that justifies laying 6.5 points against a quality opponent. They just beat Washington 146-101, which looks impressive until you remember it’s Washington. The Wizards are a punching bag this season. Beating them by 45 doesn’t tell me you’re ready to cover 6.5 against a Lakers team that’s battle-tested and road-hardened. Boston’s 6-5 on the road, which suggests they’re more vulnerable than their overall record indicates. When your two best players are out and you’re facing a team with LeBron James and Austin Reaves playing at an All-Star level, 6.5 points is a lot to give up.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to depth and execution. The Lakers have shown they can win without their stars—they’re 16-5 with Luka Doncic missing time. Boston hasn’t had to navigate life without both Brown and Tatum for long stretches, and we’re about to find out if their depth can handle it. The Lakers are 9-2 on the road, which means they’re comfortable in hostile environments. TD Garden is tough, but LA has won in tougher spots this season.
The total is set at 223.5, which suggests the books expect a high-scoring affair. With both teams dealing with injuries, I’m not sure we get there, but that’s not the play I’m focused on. The Lakers have the veteran leadership with LeBron, the scoring punch with Reaves, and the interior presence with Ayton. Boston has home court and a solid supporting cast, but they’re missing their two best players. In a game like this, the team that’s been tested in adversity has the edge. The Lakers just won a buzzer-beater in Toronto without their star. That’s the kind of experience that wins you games in December when the other team is dealing with injuries and trying to figure out rotations.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Lakers +6.5 (-110)
I’m hammering this number before it moves. The Lakers are 16-5, they’re 9-2 on the road, and they just proved they can win without Luka Doncic. The Celtics are missing Jaylen Brown (not confirmed at press time) and Jayson Tatum, and they’re being asked to cover 6.5 points at home against a battle-tested opponent. This is a 3-4 point game, and we’re getting 6.5. That’s value, plain and simple.
Austin Reaves is playing like an All-Star, LeBron is still LeBron in crunch time, and this Lakers team has the kind of depth that shows up in spots like this. Boston will fight, and TD Garden will be loud, but 6.5 points is too many for a team missing its two best players against a Lakers squad that’s proven it can cover on the road. I’m betting 2 units on Lakers +6.5, and I’ll sleep well knowing I’m on the right side of this number. The public’s all over Boston, which means the smart money is taking the points with LA. See you at the window.
