The market is laying points with the 26-17 Lakers, but Dallas has covered in four straight home games. This ATS pick looks at whether Naji Marshall’s 30-point scoring surge and Cooper Flagg’s #40-ranked scoring can overcome a Lakers rotation missing Austin Reaves.
The Setup: Lakers at Mavericks
The Lakers are laying 3.5 points on the road in Dallas, and that number feels generous given the context. Los Angeles sits at 26-17 and fifth in the West, while Dallas limps along at 19-26, stuck in 11th place. But here’s the thing—the Mavericks are 14-11 at home and just won their fourth straight, while the Lakers are without Austin Reaves, who’s missed 15 consecutive games with a left calf strain. Reaves was averaging 26.6 points and 6.3 assists before going down, and that’s a massive hole in LA’s offensive structure. Meanwhile, Luka Doncic is putting up 33.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 8.7 assists per game for the Lakers, but he’s carrying a load that’s unsustainable without Reaves. Dallas is catching LA at the right time, and the market knows it. This line is begging you to take the road favorite, but the numbers tell a different story once you account for pace, efficiency, and rest.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Date: Saturday, January 24, 2026
Time: 8:30 ET
Location: American Airlines Center
TV: ABC
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
Spread: Lakers -3.5 (-110) | Mavericks +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Lakers -159 | Mavericks +130
Total: Over 233.5 (-110) | Under 233.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The Lakers are road favorites because they’re the better team on paper—26-17 versus 19-26 is a seven-game gap, and LA’s conference ranking reflects that. But the line sitting at just 3.5 points tells you the market is respecting Dallas’s home-court advantage and recent momentum. The Mavericks have won four straight, including a 123-115 victory over Golden State where Naji Marshall dropped 30 points and nine assists. That’s not a fluke—Marshall’s averaging 14.5 points and 3.0 assists on the season, and he’s been the steady hand Dallas needs with Kyrie Irving still out recovering from ACL surgery. Irving tore his ACL in March 2025 and won’t be back for this one, but the Mavericks have adapted. Anthony Davis is anchoring things at 20.4 points and 11.1 rebounds per game, while rookie Cooper Flagg is contributing 18.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists. The Lakers, meanwhile, are dealing with the Reaves absence, and that’s a problem. Reaves was their second-leading scorer and primary playmaker alongside Doncic. Without him, the offensive burden shifts even more heavily to Doncic and LeBron James, who’s averaging 22.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 6.9 assists at age 41. The market is pricing in the injury impact and Dallas’s home splits, and that’s why this number isn’t 6 or 7.
Lakers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Lakers are built around Doncic’s brilliance, and he’s having an absurd season—33.4 points per game is elite, and his 8.7 assists show he’s still creating for others despite the offensive load. LeBron is still producing at a high level, but at 22.5 points per game, he’s not the primary engine anymore. That’s where the Reaves injury becomes critical. Reaves was the connective tissue between Doncic and the rest of the roster, and without him, the Lakers are relying on Marcus Smart and Jake LaRavia to fill minutes. Neither player is replicating Reaves’s scoring or playmaking, and that’s showing up in LA’s recent results. They just lost to the Clippers 112-104 in Inglewood, a game where Kawhi Leonard scored 24 points and the Lakers couldn’t generate enough offense down the stretch. The Lakers are 14-9 on the road, which is solid, but that record includes games with Reaves healthy. The current version of this roster is thinner, and that matters in a road spot against a team that’s playing with confidence.
Mavericks Breakdown: The Other Side
Dallas is 19-26, but those numbers are misleading when you isolate their home performance. They’re 14-11 at American Airlines Center, and that’s a respectable split for a team that’s been decimated by injuries. Kyrie Irving is out for the season after ACL surgery, and Dereck Lively II is also done after undergoing season-ending surgery on his right foot. Despite those losses, the Mavericks have found a rhythm. Anthony Davis is the anchor—20.4 points and 11.1 rebounds per game is exactly what you need from your big man, and he’s been consistent all season. Cooper Flagg has been a revelation, averaging 18.8 points and 6.4 rebounds as a rookie. He’s not just a scorer—his 4.1 assists per game show he’s got vision and basketball IQ beyond his years. Naji Marshall is the wildcard. His season averages are 14.5 points and 3.0 assists, but he just put up 30 and nine against Golden State. That kind of ceiling matters in a tight game. The Mavericks are also getting contributions from Daniel Gafford and Dwight Powell in the frontcourt, filling the void left by Lively’s injury. This isn’t a deep roster, but it’s a functional one at home, and they’re riding a four-game winning streak.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to offensive efficiency and how the Lakers replace Reaves’s production. Doncic is going to get his—33.4 points per game doesn’t happen by accident—but the question is whether LeBron and the supporting cast can generate enough secondary scoring to pull away. The Mavericks are going to lean on Davis in the paint and let Flagg and Marshall create off the bounce. Dallas’s recent win over Golden State showed they can score in volume—123 points against a Warriors team that’s been competitive all season is no joke. The total is set at 233.5, which suggests the market expects a high-scoring game, and that makes sense given the personnel. The Lakers don’t have the defensive depth to slow down Davis and Flagg consistently, and Dallas doesn’t have the perimeter defenders to lock down Doncic. This sets up as a possession-by-possession game where the team that gets stops in the final five minutes covers. The Mavericks have home court, momentum, and a Lakers team that’s playing shorthanded. That’s a combination that narrows a 3.5-point spread significantly.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking the Mavericks plus the points. Dallas is 14-11 at home, riding a four-game winning streak, and catching a Lakers team without its second-best offensive player. Reaves’s absence is a bigger deal than the line suggests, and the Mavericks have the pieces to keep this close. Davis and Flagg give them a frontcourt advantage, and Marshall’s playmaking provides just enough creation to keep the offense functional. The Lakers will have Doncic and LeBron, but asking them to carry the entire load on the road in a hostile environment is a tall order. The risk here is Doncic going nuclear and dragging LA to a double-digit win, but the numbers don’t support that outcome. The Mavericks are getting 3.5 points at home against a depleted roster, and that’s value. Take Dallas and trust the home splits.
BASH’S BEST BET: Mavericks +3.5 for 2 units.
