The 22-11 Lakers head to New Orleans as 4.5-point favorites, led by the league’s most lethal duo in Luka Doncic and LeBron James. Bryan Bash breaks down why the Pelicans’ seven-game losing streak might continue against LA’s offensive efficiency.
The Setup: Lakers at Pelicans
The Lakers are laying 4.5 points on the road in New Orleans, and on the surface, this number makes sense. You’ve got a 22-11 Lakers squad traveling to face an 8-29 Pelicans team that’s lost seven straight and looks completely lost right now. But here’s the thing — road favorites in the NBA don’t just show up and win by whatever margin the talent gap suggests. The market knows this, which is why we’re not looking at Lakers -9 or -10.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I’m still backing the Lakers to cover. New Orleans is 6-16 at home, which tells you the Smoothie King Center hasn’t exactly been a fortress this season. The Pelicans just got torched by Miami 125-106, extending their losing streak to seven games. Meanwhile, the Lakers are coming off a 120-114 win over Memphis where Luka Doncic dropped 36 points with nine rebounds and eight assists, and LeBron James added 26 points with 10 assists. That’s the kind of firepower that travels.
The thesis here is straightforward: the Lakers have the offensive talent and efficiency to win this game by more than a possession, even on the road. The Pelicans are banged up, struggling defensively, and showing zero signs of life during this seven-game skid. When you factor in how this matchup actually plays out over 48 minutes, that 4.5-point margin feels more than reasonable.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 6, 2026, 8:00 ET
Venue: Smoothie King Center
Spread: Lakers -4.5 (-110) / Pelicans +4.5 (-110)
Total: Over/Under 241.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Lakers -189 / Pelicans +152
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Lakers -4.5 for a few specific reasons, and they all check out when you dig into the numbers. First, you’ve got a massive talent and record disparity — the Lakers are 22-11 and ranked 3rd in the Western Conference, while the Pelicans are 8-29 and sitting dead last at 15th. That alone justifies a meaningful spread.
But the line isn’t bigger because of two factors: road context and injury concerns. The Lakers are 12-5 on the road, which is solid, but road favorites always face an efficiency tax. The Pelicans are 6-16 at home, but that still means they’ve won six games in their own building — they’re not completely lifeless at the Smoothie King Center. The market is also accounting for Rui Hachimura being out with a calf injury, which impacts the Lakers’ depth and defensive versatility.
Here’s where I start to lean Lakers, though. The Pelicans are on a seven-game losing streak and just got demolished by Miami 125-106. That’s not just a bad loss — it’s a sign of a team that’s completely fractured right now. Dejounte Murray is still out with an Achilles injury, and Herbert Jones is questionable with a sprained right ankle. When you’re missing your primary perimeter defender and your starting point guard, you’re asking Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III to carry an impossible load against a Lakers team that can score from multiple levels.
The Lakers, meanwhile, are rolling. Doncic is averaging 33.7 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 8.7 assists per game. Austin Reaves is putting up 26.6 points and 6.3 assists. LeBron is still LeBron at 21.2 points and 6.7 assists. That’s three guys who can initiate offense and punish mismatches, and the Pelicans don’t have the defensive personnel to slow all three down.
Lakers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Lakers’ offensive firepower is the story here, and it’s not just about star power — it’s about how those stars complement each other. Doncic is the primary initiator, capable of breaking down defenses in isolation or running pick-and-roll. Reaves has emerged as a legitimate secondary creator who can score in the mid-range and finish at the rim. LeBron, even at this stage of his career, remains one of the most efficient playmakers in the league.
What makes this trio so dangerous against a team like New Orleans is the versatility. The Pelicans can’t just load up on Doncic and call it a day — Reaves and LeBron will carve them up in the half-court. And if New Orleans tries to switch everything, the Lakers have the size and skill to exploit mismatches all night long. Jake LaRavia added 26 points in the win over Memphis, which shows the Lakers have secondary scoring options beyond the big three.
The main concern for the Lakers is depth, particularly with Hachimura out. He’s been a key rotation piece who can defend multiple positions and provide scoring punch off the bench. Without him, the Lakers will lean more heavily on their stars, which could lead to fatigue late in the game. Gabe Vincent is also questionable with a back injury, which further thins the rotation.
Still, when you’re facing an 8-29 team on a seven-game losing streak, depth concerns take a backseat to talent and efficiency. The Lakers have enough firepower to control this game from start to finish.
Pelicans Breakdown: The Other Side
The Pelicans are in a brutal spot right now, and the injury report tells most of the story. Murray is out, which eliminates their primary ball-handler and perimeter defender. Jones is questionable, which means they might be without their best wing defender against a Lakers team loaded with perimeter scorers. Saddiq Bey is also out with a hip injury, further depleting their depth.
Zion Williamson is averaging 22.8 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 3.2 assists, and he’ll need to be dominant for the Pelicans to have any chance. But here’s the problem: Zion thrives in transition and attacking the rim, and the Lakers have the size and defensive discipline to slow him down in the half-court. Without Murray to run the offense and create easy looks, Zion will face more defensive attention and fewer clean driving lanes.
Trey Murphy III is averaging 20.7 points and 6.1 rebounds, and he’s capable of getting hot from three-point range. Jordan Poole adds 16.7 points and 3.7 assists, but he’s been inconsistent all season. The Pelicans’ offense relies too heavily on individual shot-making rather than cohesive team play, and that’s a recipe for disaster against a Lakers team that can match them shot-for-shot.
Defensively, the Pelicans have been a disaster during this losing streak. They gave up 125 points to Miami and have shown zero ability to get stops when it matters. Without Jones, they’ll struggle even more to contain Doncic, Reaves, and LeBron on the perimeter. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup comes down to offensive efficiency and defensive execution, and the Lakers hold a clear edge in both areas. The Pelicans are 6-16 at home, which means they’ve been outplayed in their own building more often than not. The Lakers are 12-5 on the road, which shows they can win in hostile environments.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap: the Lakers have three players averaging over 20 points per game, and all three are capable of creating their own shot. The Pelicans have two players in that range, and one of them (Zion) will face constant defensive attention without Murray to take pressure off him. When you do the math over 48 minutes, the Lakers should be able to generate cleaner looks and more efficient possessions.
The pace of this game will also favor the Lakers. New Orleans wants to push tempo and get Zion in transition, but the Lakers have the defensive discipline to get back and force the Pelicans into half-court sets. Once that happens, the Lakers can control the game through their half-court offense and exploit New Orleans’ defensive breakdowns.
The main risk here is complacency. The Lakers are heavy favorites against a struggling team, and there’s always a danger of looking ahead or not bringing full intensity. But given how well they played against Memphis and the fact that they’re still fighting for playoff positioning, I expect them to come out focused and put this game away early.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Lakers -4.5 (-110) — 2 Units
I’m backing the Lakers to cover the 4.5-point spread on the road. The talent gap is too significant, the Pelicans are too banged up, and the seven-game losing streak tells you everything you need to know about New Orleans’ current state. Doncic, Reaves, and LeBron should be able to control this game from start to finish, and I don’t see the Pelicans having an answer defensively.
The main risk is the Lakers’ depth concerns with Hachimura and potentially Vincent out, but against an 8-29 team, that’s a manageable problem. The Pelicans have shown zero ability to defend or execute down the stretch during this losing streak, and I expect the Lakers to pull away in the second half.
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests — in favor of the Lakers. Take them to cover and move to 23-11 on the season.
