Bryan Bash calls out the “trap line” in Lakers-Pelicans, breaking down why sharp money’s hammering LA and the total before the market adjusts.
The Setup: Lakers at Pelicans
The Lakers are laying 9.5 points against a Pelicans team that’s 2-9 straight up and bleeding points on both ends? Vegas is practically begging you to take New Orleans and the points, but I’m not falling for it. The books know what’s up here – they’re setting a trap for the square money that thinks ‘double digits is too many.’ Wrong. The market’s disrespecting the Lakers here, and I’m hammering this number before it moves.
Los Angeles is 8-4 and averaging 115.9 points per game while allowing 116.9. New Orleans? They’re at 108.8 points scored and 121.6 points allowed. That’s a 12.8-point negative differential for the Pelicans. The Lakers are coming off a beatdown by Oklahoma City (121-92), but that’s exactly the spot where you want to back them. This is a revenge game against a team they’ve dominated historically – LA is 9-1 straight up and 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 meetings.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Friday, November 14, 2025 at 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
- Spread: Lakers -9.5 (some books at -10)
- Total: 228.5-229
- Moneyline: Lakers -470, Pelicans +345
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The books set this line at 9.5 knowing the public will see a 2-9 Pelicans team and think ‘they’re due’ or ‘double digits is too many.’ That’s soft thinking. The sharp money knows what’s up here – New Orleans is 5-5-1 against the spread, which means they’ve been covering because books have been giving them massive numbers. But here’s the thing: the Lakers are 8-4 ATS this season, including 5-2 on the road. They’re not just winning, they’re covering.
Look at the efficiency metrics. The Lakers shoot 50.4% from the field (3rd in the league) while the Pelicans are at 43.6% (27th). That’s a 6.8-percentage-point advantage in shooting efficiency. The Lakers also get to the free-throw line more – 28.2 attempts per game (5th) versus New Orleans’ 25.2 (19th). When you control the paint and get to the stripe, you control the game.
The total is set at 228.5-229, and that’s where it gets interesting. The Lakers average 115.9 PPG, the Pelicans average 108.8 PPG – that’s 224.7. But the Pelicans allow 121.6 PPG, which means LA could get to 120+ easily. This number screams OVER, especially with both teams in the bottom third defensively.
Lakers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Lakers are rolling, even without LeBron James (who’s still out with injury but practicing). Austin Reaves is averaging 28.3 points per game and has been a monster, while Luka Doncic – yes, that Luka – is putting up 34.9 PPG with 8.9 assists. Wait, Luka’s on the Lakers now? That’s right, and he’s been absolutely dominant. He’s shooting 47.6% from the field and getting to the line 11.1 times per game.
The Lakers’ offense is efficient: 57.0% effective field goal percentage (6th in the league), and they’re converting on 50.4% of their shots. They also dominate on the glass with 50.3 total rebounds per game. Their assist-to-turnover ratio is 1.604, which shows they’re taking care of the ball and moving it well.
On the road, LA is 5-2 straight up and 5-2 ATS. They just got embarrassed by Oklahoma City (121-92), but before that they won three straight. This is exactly the spot where they bounce back against an inferior opponent.
Pelicans Breakdown: The Other Side
New Orleans is a disaster right now. They’re 2-9 straight up with a -12.8 point differential. They just lost to Portland 125-117 at home, their third straight loss. Without Zion Williamson (hamstring, out until at least Nov 19), Jordan Poole (quad strain, out until Nov 17), and Dejounte Murray (out until January), this team has no offensive firepower.
The Pelicans are shooting 43.6% from the field (27th in the league) and their effective FG% is just 50.5% (29th). They’re getting crushed on defense, allowing 121.6 PPG and 50.5% shooting to opponents (28th). Their two-point defense is allowing 64.0% shooting – dead last in the NBA. That’s a recipe for getting blown out.
Trey Murphy III (18.5 PPG) and Jeremiah Fears (14.0 PPG) are trying to hold it together, but they’re rookies and role players being asked to carry a team. Saddiq Bey had 25 points against Portland, but that was in a loss. This team can’t defend, can’t rebound (27.7 defensive rebounds per game, 29th), and can’t stop anyone in transition (allowing 14.8 fastbreak points per game).
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and at the free-throw line. The Lakers average 51.8 points in the paint per game while the Pelicans allow 49.8 (15th). But here’s the kicker – New Orleans’ interior defense is terrible. They’re ranked 30th in two-point defense, allowing 64.0% shooting inside the arc. The Lakers shoot 61.1% on two-pointers (1st in the league). That’s a mismatch that’s going to get exploited all night.
The rebounding battle favors LA. The Pelicans are 29th in defensive rebounding at 27.7 per game, while the Lakers grab 30.8 (23rd). That gives LA second-chance opportunities and limits New Orleans’ transition game. The Pelicans need to get out and run to have a chance (14.8 fastbreak PPG), but they can’t do that if they’re not getting stops or defensive boards.
Head-to-head history tells the story: Lakers are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. They’ve won five straight against New Orleans. In the last matchup on April 4, 2025, the Lakers won 124-108. The total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 7 games between these teams, and in 4 of the last 6 at New Orleans.
The Lakers are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games and 5-2 ATS on the road in their last 7. The writing’s on the wall with this matchup – LA is the superior team in every measurable category.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
BASH’S BEST BET: Lakers -9.5 and OVER 228.5
I’m hammering the Lakers to cover and the over to cash. This is a 15-20 point game waiting to happen. The Pelicans can’t defend (121.6 PPG allowed), they can’t shoot (43.6% FG), and they’re missing their three best players. The Lakers are going to run them off the court. Doncic and Reaves will combine for 60+ points, and New Orleans will have no answer inside.
The over is a lock too. Both teams are in the bottom third defensively, and the Lakers average 115.9 PPG while the Pelicans allow 121.6. Even if New Orleans scores their average (108.8), that’s 224+ total. But I expect LA to push 125+ and New Orleans to get to 110 in garbage time. This number screams OVER.
Load up on this before the line shifts. The books are begging you to take the Pelicans and the points, but sharp money knows what’s up here. This is a statement game for the Lakers after getting embarrassed by OKC. I’ve seen this movie before – LA wins by 15+ and the total crushes 230. Lakers -9.5 and OVER 228.5 – lock it in.
