Bryan Bash says Vegas is baiting bettors with a bloated line. With Anthony Edwards sidelined and Austin Reaves on fire, the sharp side might surprise you.
The Setup: Lakers at Timberwolves
The Timberwolves are laying 7 points at home against a Lakers squad that’s been limping through the early season with more bodies in the training room than on the court. Vegas has this total pegged at 224 points, and the books are practically begging you to take Minnesota and the points. But here’s the thing – when the market makes something this obvious, that’s exactly when you need to pump the brakes.
Look, I get it. The Lakers come in at 2-2 without LeBron James, who’s nursing that sciatica and won’t be back until mid-November. Luka Doncic is out for at least a week with finger and leg issues. Gabe Vincent’s on the shelf for 2-4 weeks with an ankle problem. This roster looks like a MASH unit. But the Timberwolves? They’re not exactly playing with a full deck either. Anthony Edwards just got slapped with a two-week absence due to a hamstring injury after that game against the Pacers. When your best player goes down, it doesn’t matter what the line says – the whole dynamic changes.
The market’s disrespecting the Lakers here, and I’m not buying it. Austin Reaves is averaging 35.8 points per game on 57.3% shooting through four contests. That’s not a fluke – the kid’s got the green light and he’s draining everything. Rui Hachimura is chipping in 16.5 PPG on a scorching 63.4% from the field. Even with the injuries, this Lakers squad has shown they can put up points in bunches.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: October 29, 2025 at 9:40 PM ET
- Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
- Spread: Timberwolves -7
- Total: 224 points (O/U)
- Moneyline: Lakers +225 | Timberwolves -275
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let me break down exactly why Vegas set this number where they did. On paper, the Timberwolves should dominate. They’re at home, coming off a solid win against Indiana where Julius Randle dropped 31 points and grabbed 4 boards. The Lakers are traveling without their franchise cornerstone and dealing with a laundry list of injuries. The casual bettor sees Minnesota -7 and thinks it’s free money.
But here’s what the books know that the public doesn’t: the Timberwolves just lost Anthony Edwards for two weeks. That’s happened after October 27th, so the line has adjusted some, but not enough. Edwards was their leading scorer averaging 25.7 PPG in three games before the injury. When your 24-year-old alpha dog goes down, you don’t just plug in another guy and keep rolling. The entire offensive system changes.
Julius Randle is now carrying the load, averaging 25 PPG on 56.5% shooting, but he’s also showing a minus-3.8 plus/minus through four games. That tells me something – when he’s on the floor, the Wolves are getting outscored. The Lakers’ top performer, Austin Reaves, has a plus-6.3 rating. The sharp money knows what’s up here.
The 224-point total is intriguing. Both teams can score – the Timberwolves are putting up solid numbers with their full complement of weapons, and the Lakers have proven they can hang offensively even undermanned. But without Edwards’ explosiveness and LeBron’s playmaking, we’re looking at two teams that might grind more than people expect. This number screams Under, and I’m hammering it before the line shifts.
Lakers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Let’s cut through the noise and focus on what matters. The Lakers are 2-2, sitting 7th in the Western Conference, but they’ve been competitive in every game. Austin Reaves has stepped up like an absolute dog, putting up 35.8 points, 8.5 assists, and 6.8 rebounds per contest. He’s second in the league in scoring behind only Luka Doncic, and he’s doing it efficiently – 88.2% from the charity stripe on 12.8 attempts per game.
Rui Hachimura gives them a secondary weapon averaging 16.5 PPG on 63.4% shooting. That’s elite efficiency, folks. DeAndre Ayton anchors the paint with 15.8 points and 9.3 rebounds, though his 60% shooting from the field drops to an ugly 37.5% from the free throw line. That’s a concern in crunch time.
The injury situation is brutal – LeBron, Luka, Vincent, Maxi Kleber all sidelined. Marcus Smart and Jaxson Hayes are questionable for this one. But here’s the reality: this team has played four games with essentially this roster, and they’re 2-2 with wins on the road. They know how to play without the stars, and that chemistry matters more than raw talent sometimes.
Defensively, they’re allowing opponents to shoot 60% from the field, which is bottom-tier. But they’re also forcing turnovers and getting to the free throw line. The Lakers are attempting 30 free throws per game – that’s a weapon when games get tight.
Timberwolves Breakdown: The Other Side
The Timberwolves are 2-2, sitting 8th in the West with a minus-3.8 point differential through four games. That’s not the profile of a team that should be laying 7 at home. Julius Randle is the new alpha with Edwards down, averaging 25 PPG, 6.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists. He’s shooting 56.5% from the field and 77.8% from the line, but that minus-3.8 plus/minus keeps nagging at me.
Jaden McDaniels gives them elite rim protection with 2.5 blocks per game and 16 PPG, but he’s also sporting a brutal minus-7.5 rating. When your two main guys are both in the negative on plus/minus, that’s a red flag. The writing’s on the wall with this matchup – the Wolves aren’t dominating anybody right now.
Donte DiVincenzo stepped up with 17 points in the win over Indiana, and Naz Reid provides quality minutes off the bench with 11.3 PPG and 6.3 rebounds. But this team was designed around Edwards’ explosive scoring and playmaking. Without him, they’re just another solid team trying to figure it out on the fly.
The home opener hype wore off quick when Edwards went down against Indiana. The atmosphere changed, and so did the team’s confidence. They hung on to win that game by 4 points against an Indiana team that was down seven players. That’s not exactly a dominant performance.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to three factors: pace, free throws, and depth. The Timberwolves want to push tempo and get out in transition, but without Edwards leading the break, their fastbreak points are going to take a hit. The Lakers, meanwhile, are perfectly content to slow this down and grind it out in the halfcourt.
From what we saw in that Pacers-Mavericks matchup data, we know teams in similar situations can struggle to cover inflated spreads. Dallas was laying points at home, and that game turned into a foul-fest with 30+ free throw attempts for Indiana. Expect similar officiating here – both teams are physical, and the refs are going to blow the whistle.
The Lakers get to the line 30 times per game. The Timberwolves are allowing opponents 32 free throw attempts per contest. That’s where Austin Reaves thrives – drawing contact and converting at 88%. If Minnesota gets into foul trouble trying to slow down Reaves, this game stays tight late.
The total of 224 is fascinating. Recent Timberwolves games have shown they can struggle to score without Edwards. That Thunder-Mavericks game from October 27th? It finished 101-94 – way under expectations. When star players go down, offenses sputter. The Lakers aren’t exactly lighting it up either without LeBron’s facilitating. I’ve seen this movie before, and it ends with both teams scrapping for 105-110 points.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
Here’s the truth: this line’s too fat. Seven points is too many for a Timberwolves team without their best player against a Lakers squad that’s been scrappy and competitive all season. The public’s all over Minnesota because they see the Lakers’ injury report and think it’s a layup. That’s exactly the spot where LA burns you.
I’m taking Lakers +7 with confidence. Austin Reaves is balling out of his mind, the Lakers have shown they can play without stars, and the Timberwolves are still figuring out life without Anthony Edwards. This game stays within a possession late, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Lakers win outright at +225. But we’ll take the points and sleep easy.
On the total, I’m hammering the Under 224. Both teams are dealing with significant offensive losses, the pace will be slower than expected, and these early-season games tend to grind. Load up on this before the line shifts down to 220.
BASH’S BEST BET: Lakers +7 + Under 224 – The market’s begging you to fade the depleted Lakers, but sharp money knows that 35.8 PPG from Reaves and a Timberwolves team missing their star means this game stays close and low-scoring. That’s a double-barrel winner waiting to happen.
