Portland enters the Moda Center as a 3-point favorite, but the real story is an injury report that reads like a tragedy for both sides. Bash looks at the efficiency metrics and asks if the Lakers can maintain their road resilience now that both Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic have been ruled out.
The Setup: Lakers at Trail Blazers
The Lakers roll into Portland as 3-point underdogs Saturday night, and that line tells you everything about how the market views Austin Reaves’ absence. Without their second-leading scorer—a guy averaging 26.6 points per game—the Lakers’ offensive structure shifts entirely to Luka Doncic and LeBron James. That’s a lot of usage concentration, and Portland knows it. The Trail Blazers are laying three at home despite sitting 20-22, but this number makes perfect sense when you consider the Lakers just got torched by Charlotte 135-117 on Thursday, with Doncic dropping 39 in a losing effort. The total sits at 223.5, which feels light given both teams’ offensive firepower, but the market is accounting for Portland’s defensive attention zeroing in on Doncic without Reaves to relieve pressure. This line exists because the Lakers’ depth chart just got significantly thinner, and the Blazers—even without Deni Avdija—have enough offensive balance to exploit it.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 17, 2026, 10:00 ET
Venue: Moda Center at the Rose Quarter
TV Network: NBA TV
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Lakers +3.0 (-110) | Trail Blazers -3.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Lakers +122 | Trail Blazers -149
- Total: Over 223.5 (-110) | Under 223.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
Portland laying three at home against a Lakers team that’s 13-7 on the road might seem disrespectful at first glance, but the Austin Reaves injury changes everything about LA’s offensive equation. Reaves wasn’t just scoring 26.6 per game—he was the tertiary playmaker who allowed the Lakers to stagger Doncic and LeBron’s minutes without the offense collapsing. Now that usage has to redistribute somewhere, and the most likely candidates are Marcus Smart, Dalton Knecht, or even Bronny James getting extended run. None of those guys replicate Reaves’ scoring efficiency or shot creation.
The market is also pricing in Portland’s home split. The Blazers are 11-10 at the Moda Center, and while that’s not dominant, it’s competent enough to justify a short number against a compromised opponent. Shaedon Sharpe just dropped 24 in Portland’s 117-101 win over Atlanta, and with Avdija out, Sharpe becomes the primary scoring option alongside Jerami Grant, who’s averaging 19.8 per game. The Lakers’ perimeter defense will have to account for multiple threats without their best two-way guard available.
The total at 223.5 reflects the market’s expectation that the Lakers’ offense takes a step back without Reaves’ spacing and creation. Charlotte just hung 135 on them, but that was with LaMelo Ball hitting nine threes and exploiting LA’s transition defense. Portland plays a more controlled pace, and without Avdija’s playmaking, the Blazers will lean into halfcourt sets where Grant and Sharpe operate in isolation. The number feels conservative, but it’s based on the assumption that the Lakers’ offensive efficiency dips significantly without their second-best scorer.
Lakers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Lakers are 24-15 and sitting sixth in the West, but that record is heavily influenced by Reaves’ breakout season. Losing him for an extended period means Doncic—who’s averaging 33.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 8.7 assists—has to carry even more of the offensive load. That’s not necessarily a problem in terms of raw production, but it creates predictability. Doncic just went for 39 against Charlotte in a loss, which tells you everything about how teams can load up on him when the supporting cast thins out.
LeBron at 22.7 points per game is still effective, but at this stage of his career, he’s not the guy who can consistently create his own shot for 35 minutes. The Lakers need role players to step up, and that’s where the uncertainty lies. Marcus Smart brings defense and playmaking, but he’s not a volume scorer. Dalton Knecht has flashed potential, but asking him to absorb 15-20 of Reaves’ minutes in a road game against a motivated Portland team is a big ask.
The Lakers are 13-7 on the road, which is legitimately impressive, but those wins came with Reaves spacing the floor and taking pressure off Doncic. Without that dynamic, the Lakers’ halfcourt offense becomes more isolation-heavy, which plays directly into Portland’s hands. If Jaxson Hayes remains questionable with his hamstring issue, the Lakers’ frontcourt depth also takes a hit, forcing more minutes for Maxi Kleber and Drew Timme in what could be a physical game.
Trail Blazers Breakdown: The Other Side
Portland sits 20-22 and ninth in the West, but they’re not a pushover at home. The Blazers are 11-10 at the Moda Center, and they just handled Atlanta 117-101 behind Sharpe’s 24 points. Losing Deni Avdija—who’s averaging 26.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 6.9 assists—is significant, but it also forces the Blazers to simplify their offense. Sharpe and Grant become the primary options, and both guys are comfortable operating in space without needing complex actions to get their shots.
Sharpe at 21.5 points per game is the key here. He’s an explosive scorer who can get hot quickly, and the Lakers’ perimeter defense without Reaves is vulnerable. Grant at 19.8 per game provides a secondary scoring punch, and his ability to stretch the floor at 6’8″ creates mismatches against LA’s frontcourt. The Blazers don’t have the depth to overwhelm teams, but they have enough offensive talent to exploit a Lakers team that’s missing its best perimeter defender and second-leading scorer.
Portland’s defensive attention will focus entirely on Doncic. Without Reaves to punish overhelps, the Blazers can afford to send extra bodies at Doncic in pick-and-roll situations and force the Lakers’ role players to beat them. That’s a gamble Portland should be willing to take, especially at home where they can control tempo and limit transition opportunities.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether the Lakers can generate enough secondary offense without Austin Reaves. Doncic will get his numbers—he’s too talented not to—but the question is whether Marcus Smart, Dalton Knecht, or LeBron in extended minutes can combine for 40-50 points to keep LA competitive. That’s a lot to ask against a Portland team that can throw multiple defenders at Doncic and force the Lakers into contested jumpers.
Portland’s offensive approach is straightforward: get Sharpe and Grant involved early, attack the Lakers’ compromised perimeter defense, and control the glass. The Blazers won’t overwhelm you with pace, but they’re efficient enough in the halfcourt to exploit mismatches. If Sharpe gets going from three and Grant can punish smaller defenders in the post, the Lakers don’t have the defensive versatility to adjust without Reaves.
The total at 223.5 feels like the sharper play here. The Lakers’ offense takes a hit without Reaves, but Portland’s defense isn’t good enough to hold LA under 105. Doncic alone should be good for 30-35, and LeBron will contribute 20-plus. The question is whether Portland can score enough to push the total over, and with Sharpe and Grant both capable of efficient 20-point nights, the math works. If this game hits 115-110 either way, the over cashes comfortably.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Portland -3 and leaning the over 223.5. The Reaves injury is too significant to ignore, and the Lakers don’t have the depth to replace his production on the road. Portland at home with Sharpe and Grant healthy is good enough to cover a short number against a compromised Lakers team that’s still figuring out its rotation without its second-best player. Doncic will keep it close, but the Blazers have enough offensive balance to pull away late.
The over makes sense because the Lakers’ offense doesn’t fall off a cliff without Reaves—it just becomes more Doncic-dependent. That means high-usage possessions and enough scoring to keep LA in the 110 range. Portland should hit 115 at home against a Lakers defense that just gave up 135 to Charlotte. The risk is the Lakers’ offense stalling completely in the fourth quarter, but I trust Doncic to keep them competitive enough to push the total.
BASH’S BEST BET: Trail Blazers -3 for 2 units.
Portland covers at home. The Lakers don’t have the depth to hang without Reaves, and the Blazers are motivated enough to take care of business. Lay the three and trust the home team to execute.
