With Ja Morant back in the starting five, the Grizzlies are a different animal. Our handicappers offer a best bet on whether Memphis can avenge their recent loss to the Magic.
The Setup: Magic at Grizzlies
Orlando lays 4 points in London against a Memphis squad they just beat by seven in Berlin three days ago. The Magic won that one 118-111 with Franz Wagner back in the lineup, and the market’s telling you Orlando’s the better team even on a neutral floor. But here’s what matters: Memphis gets Ja Morant back from a six-game absence, and that changes the efficiency math significantly. The Grizzlies closed as bigger dogs in Germany and kept it within single digits. Now they’re getting four with their best offensive engine returning, and the line feels tight when you account for what Morant does to Memphis’ offensive rating. This isn’t about fading the Magic’s recent form—it’s about understanding what 30 minutes of Morant at 23.5 points and 7.8 assists does to possession value in a game that should push 95-plus possessions.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Orlando Magic (23-18, 9-11 road) at Memphis Grizzlies (17-23, 8-11 road)
When: Sunday, January 18, 2026, 12:00 ET
Where: O2 Arena
Watch: Prime Video
Spread: Magic -4.0 (-110) | Grizzlies +4.0 (-110)
Total: 231.0 (Over/Under -110)
Moneyline: Magic -169 | Grizzlies +138
Why This Line Exists
The market’s giving Orlando four points based on what just happened in Berlin and what the records say. The Magic are 23-18 and sitting fifth in the East. Memphis is 17-23 and eleventh in the West. Orlando just proved they can beat this Grizzlies team with Wagner back, putting up 118 points and controlling the game down the stretch. That result matters, but the line adjustment from that seven-point win to a four-point spread tells you the oddsmakers are accounting for Morant’s return.
Before his six-game absence, Morant averaged 23.5 points, 7.8 assists, 2.3 rebounds and 1.3 steals over 29.3 minutes in his last four games. That’s not just scoring—it’s offensive orchestration that changes how Memphis generates looks. Without him, the Grizzlies started Cam Spencer for six straight games and lacked a true primary creator. The efficiency gap between Spencer running the offense and Morant is massive, and that’s why this number dropped from what could’ve been six or seven based purely on the Berlin result.
The total at 231 reflects both teams’ ability to score and the pace these squads should generate on a neutral floor. Orlando put up 118 in Germany. Memphis has been inconsistent defensively all season, and getting Morant back means more transition opportunities and faster decision-making in the halfcourt. The number makes sense if you’re projecting 95-96 possessions with both teams pushing tempo.
Orlando Magic Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Paolo Banchero continues to anchor this offense at 21.1 points, 8.8 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game. He dropped 26 and 13 in Berlin and showed he can dominate against Memphis’ frontcourt depth issues. With Zach Edey out long-term and Brandon Clarke sidelined, the Grizzlies are starting Jock Landale at center, and that’s a matchup Banchero can exploit in the post and on the glass.
Franz Wagner’s return changes everything for Orlando’s offensive balance. He posted 18 points and nine rebounds in his first game back after missing more than a month with a high ankle sprain. That’s 18 points on limited conditioning, and he’ll only get sharper. Wagner at 22.5 points per game this season gives the Magic a second creator who can attack closeouts and space the floor. Desmond Bane adds another 19.0 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists, giving Orlando three guys who can create offense in different ways.
The Magic are 9-11 on the road, which isn’t dominant, but neutral-site games in international settings tend to favor the better overall team. Orlando’s missing Jalen Suggs for a seventh straight game with a right knee MCL contusion, which hurts their perimeter defense and secondary ball-handling. Anthony Black, Tyus Jones and Jase Richardson have filled in, but that’s a downgrade in two-way impact.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: The Other Side
Morant’s probable status is the story. If he plays—and the injury report suggests he will—Memphis gets back a guy who was averaging 7.8 assists before the calf contusion. That assist rate drives everything for the Grizzlies’ offense. Jaren Jackson Jr. at 18.8 points and 5.5 rebounds needs someone to create looks for him in the halfcourt. Santi Aldama provides 14.1 points and 6.7 rebounds, but he’s not a primary creator. Morant unlocks all of that.
The problem is Memphis’ frontcourt depth. Edey’s out until at least early March. Clarke won’t return until after the All-Star break. That leaves Landale as the starting center, and he’s been serviceable but not someone who can match Banchero’s physicality or Wagner’s versatility. The Grizzlies are vulnerable on the glass and in pick-and-roll defense, which is exactly where Orlando thrives.
Memphis is 8-11 on the road, and while this is technically a neutral site, they’re coming off a loss in Berlin and now facing a quick turnaround against the same team. The conditioning and mental reset required for back-to-back international games matters, especially when you’re integrating Morant back into the rotation after six games off.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Morant’s return can offset Orlando’s frontcourt advantage and Wagner’s continued ramp-up. In a game that should hit 95 possessions, every efficiency edge matters. If Morant plays 29-30 minutes and produces at his pre-injury rate, Memphis gains roughly 8-10 points of offensive value compared to what they got from Spencer. That’s significant over a full game.
But Orlando’s size advantage with Banchero and Wagner against Memphis’ depleted frontcourt creates its own math. Banchero’s 21.1 points per game and Wagner’s 22.5 suggest the Magic can generate high-percentage looks inside and on the glass. Memphis allowed 118 points in Berlin and didn’t have an answer for Banchero’s post game or Wagner’s cutting. Adding Morant helps the Grizzlies’ offense, but it doesn’t solve their defensive issues in the paint.
The pace should favor Memphis if Morant pushes transition opportunities, but Orlando’s been comfortable playing up-tempo with Banchero and Wagner running the floor. The total at 231 requires both teams to score in the mid-to-high 110s, which feels achievable given the Berlin result and the offensive weapons on both sides. The spread at four means you need to believe Memphis can either win outright or keep it within a possession, and that’s where Morant’s impact becomes critical.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Memphis +4 for two units. Morant’s return is worth more than one point in this matchup, and getting four points with a team that kept it competitive in Berlin without their best player feels like value. The Grizzlies lost by seven in Germany with Cam Spencer running the offense. Morant at 23.5 points and 7.8 assists changes the entire offensive structure, and that’s enough to keep this game within a possession.
Orlando’s the better team, and they proved it three days ago. But laying four points on a neutral floor against a Memphis squad getting back a guy who averaged nearly eight assists in his last healthy stretch? That’s a number I’ll take all day. The risk is Morant’s conditioning after six games off, or if Orlando’s size advantage becomes overwhelming on the glass. But the Grizzlies showed they can score against this Magic defense, and adding Morant’s creation only makes that easier.
BASH’S BEST BET: Grizzlies +4.0 for 2 units.
This line’s begging you to lay the points with Orlando based on what just happened. I’m going the other way. Morant matters, and four points is too many.
