The Pelicans have won four straight, but Bryan Bash explains why the efficiency metrics suggest the Dallas Mavericks are the best bet as slight road underdogs tonight.
The Setup: Mavericks at Pelicans
The Mavericks are heading to Smoothie King Center on Monday night as slight underdogs, catching 1 point against a Pelicans team that’s won four straight. On the surface, this number makes sense — New Orleans is riding momentum with Zion Williamson coming off a 29-point performance, while Dallas just dropped a road game in Philadelphia and sits at 11-18 overall with a brutal 3-8 road record.
Here’s the thing — I’m not buying the narrative. Let me walk you through why this line exists, and more importantly, why it’s begging you to take the wrong side.
Dallas is 11-18, but they’re 8-9 at home and only 3-8 on the road. New Orleans is 7-22 overall, sitting dead last in the Western Conference at 15th. They’re 5-12 at home, which means even with their recent winning streak, they’ve been one of the worst home teams in the league all season. The Pelicans are getting a point at home against a Mavericks team that’s been significantly better than their record suggests when you factor in the efficiency data. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 22, 2025, 8:00 ET
Venue: Smoothie King Center
Spread: Pelicans -1.0 (-110) / Mavericks +1.0 (-110)
Total: 238.5 (Over/Under -110)
Moneyline: Pelicans -114 / Mavericks -106
Why This Line Exists
The market is giving New Orleans one point at home based almost entirely on recency bias. Four straight wins will do that, especially when Zion is putting up 29 points and looking like the dominant force everyone expected him to be. The Pelicans just dismantled Indiana 128-109, and suddenly the narrative is that they’ve turned a corner.
But once you dig into the matchup data, this line starts to feel generous to the home team. Dallas is averaging 19.9 points per game from Anthony Davis, 18.8 from Cooper Flagg, and 16.0 from P.J. Washington. That’s three legitimate scoring threats who can operate at different levels. New Orleans counters with Zion at 21.3 PPG, Trey Murphy III at 21.2, and Jordan Poole at 17.3 — solid on paper, but the efficiency context matters here.
The total sitting at 238.5 tells you the market expects a pace-up game with offensive firepower on both sides. I keep coming back to this efficiency gap, though. Dallas has the personnel to score in half-court sets with Davis and Flagg, while New Orleans is more dependent on Zion’s paint dominance and Murphy’s perimeter shooting. When you factor in that Dejounte Murray remains out and Herbert Jones is questionable with a migraine, the Pelicans’ defensive structure gets shakier.
Mavericks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Dallas comes in at 11-18, but that record is misleading when you break down how they’ve actually played. They’re 8-9 at home, which means they’ve been competitive in their own building. The road struggles (3-8) are real, but this is a team that has the offensive firepower to hang with anyone when their top three are clicking.
Anthony Davis leading the way at 19.9 PPG and 11.2 RPG gives them a legitimate interior presence. Cooper Flagg at 18.8 PPG and 6.4 RPG provides secondary scoring and versatility, though he’s listed as questionable with a back contusion. P.J. Washington adds 16.0 PPG and 7.9 RPG, giving them three players who can create their own offense.
The main risk here is the injury situation. Flagg’s back issue is worth monitoring, and if he can’t go, that’s a significant chunk of their offensive production missing. Klay Thompson is also questionable with a knee issue, and Max Christie is day-to-day with an illness. If Dallas is down multiple rotation pieces, this line makes more sense. But if they’re relatively healthy, they have the talent edge in this matchup.
Pelicans Breakdown: The Other Side
New Orleans has won four straight, and Zion Williamson is the primary reason why. Coming off the bench for the third consecutive game, he’s dropped 29 points against Indiana and is averaging 21.3 PPG on the season. When Zion is engaged and healthy, he’s one of the most unstoppable forces in the paint.
Trey Murphy III has emerged as a legitimate second option at 21.2 PPG, and Jordan Poole provides playmaking at 17.3 PPG and 3.5 APG. But here’s where the context matters — this is still a 7-22 team that’s 5-12 at home. Four wins against inferior competition doesn’t erase the structural issues that have plagued them all season.
The absence of Dejounte Murray continues to hurt their backcourt depth and defensive cohesion. Herbert Jones being questionable with a migraine is another concern, as he’s one of their better perimeter defenders. If Jones can’t go, Dallas has even more space to operate on the wings with Flagg and Washington.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests. Dallas has the more balanced offensive attack with three legitimate scoring threats who can operate in different areas of the floor. New Orleans is more reliant on Zion’s paint dominance and Murphy’s shooting, which makes them more predictable in half-court execution.
The total at 238.5 suggests we’re looking at roughly 119 points per side, which feels right given the pace both teams want to play. But the efficiency gap favors Dallas. When you do the math over 95-100 possessions, the Mavericks have more ways to generate quality shots. Anthony Davis and Cooper Flagg (if healthy) can both create in isolation and in pick-and-roll situations. P.J. Washington provides floor spacing and rebounding.
New Orleans’ four-game winning streak is impressive, but the competition level matters. Indiana, while competitive, isn’t a defensive juggernaut. Dallas presents a different challenge with size, length, and multiple scoring options. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. The Pelicans being 5-12 at home tells you everything you need to know about their ability to protect Smoothie King Center this season.
The injury situation is the wild card. If Flagg sits, this line flips in New Orleans’ favor. But assuming Dallas is relatively healthy, they have the talent and efficiency edge to win this game outright.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Mavericks +1.0 (-110) | 2 Units
I’m taking Dallas catching a point on the road against a Pelicans team that’s been one of the worst home teams in the league all season. The four-game winning streak is noise — New Orleans is still 7-22 overall and 5-12 at Smoothie King Center. Dallas has the more balanced offensive attack, the better top-end talent when healthy, and the efficiency edge in half-court execution.
The main risk here is the injury report. If Cooper Flagg can’t go, this becomes a much tougher play. But assuming the Mavericks are relatively healthy, they should be able to win this game outright. Getting a point in what should be a coin-flip matchup is value.
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests. I keep coming back to the efficiency gap and the fact that New Orleans hasn’t been able to protect home court all season. Four straight wins don’t erase the structural issues that have made them one of the worst teams in the West. Give me the better team catching points.
