Minnesota enters as a heavy favorite, but Dallas brings enough rebounding power and offensive upside to complicate a 14-point spread. This projection breaks down the matchup trends that matter most.
The Setup: Dallas at Minnesota
The Mavericks are getting 14 points at Minnesota on Monday night, and the books are practically begging you to take the Timberwolves. Dallas limps into Target Center at 4-10 after finally snapping a three-game skid with an overtime win over Portland. Meanwhile, Minnesota sits at 8-5 but just got smoked by Denver 123-112 at home, ending their four-game winning streak.
The market’s disrespecting Dallas here, and I’m not buying it. Yeah, the Mavs are struggling, averaging just 111.3 points per game (27th in the league) while Minnesota’s scoring 120.7 PPG (9th). But 14 points? That’s asking me to believe this Dallas team — which just hung 138 in overtime with P.J. Washington and Cooper Flagg combining for 42 points — is going to roll over and die.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Monday, November 17, 2025 at 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
- Spread: Minnesota -14.0
- Total: 229.5 (Bovada) / 229.0 (MyBookie)
- Moneyline: Mavericks +550 / Timberwolves -850
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let’s talk about why Vegas hung this massive number. Dallas is 5-8 against the spread this season and 3-6 ATS at home, while Minnesota’s been solid at 5-8 ATS overall. The Mavs are averaging just 109.23 PPG according to SportsBettingStats, and they’re allowing 115.77 PPG on defense — that’s a -6.54 point differential that screams fade material.
Minnesota counters with 120.69 PPG offensively and 115.85 PPG defensively for a +4.85 differential. The Timberwolves shoot 50.04% from the field compared to Dallas’s 44.75%, and that’s a massive gap. The books know Anthony Edwards (27.3 PPG) and Julius Randle (25.5 PPG) are cooking right now, and Dallas is still without Anthony Davis, who’s been out nine straight games with a calf strain.
But here’s what Vegas doesn’t want you to see: Dallas just hung 138 on Portland in overtime. Cooper Flagg and P.J. Washington are finding their groove, combining for 42 points in that win. The Mavs shot 45.2% from the field for the season and get to the free-throw line 28.9 times per game (3rd in NBA), which is how you keep games close even when you’re not shooting well.
Dallas Mavericks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Mavericks are a mess on paper at 4-10, but this ain’t the same team that started the season. Cooper Flagg is averaging 15.6 PPG, 6.7 RPG, and 3.2 APG while playing 34.1 minutes per game as a rookie. P.J. Washington is chipping in 15.2 PPG and 7.5 RPG, and he’s shooting 54 from two-point range despite a rough 30.4% from three.
The injury to Anthony Davis kills them — he was averaging 20.8 points and 10.2 rebounds before going down. But here’s the thing: this team just scored 138 points in overtime and had seven players in double figures. When Dallas gets rolling offensively, they can hang with anybody, and they’re averaging 18.8 fastbreak points per game (4th in NBA).
Dallas ranks 2nd in total rebounds at 57.9 per game, and they’re grabbing 10.1 offensive boards per night. They create second-chance opportunities and get to the line. The Mavs also lead the league in blocks with 6.3 per game, which means they’re protecting the rim even without Davis.
Minnesota Timberwolves Breakdown: The Other Side
Minnesota’s offense is legit. Anthony Edwards is putting up 27.3 PPG on 47.6% shooting, adding 3.3 threes per game at a 41.1% clip. Julius Randle’s been a monster since coming over, averaging 25.5 PPG, 7.4 RPG, and 6.2 APG while shooting an efficient 54% from the floor. That’s a dynamic one-two punch that can light you up.
The Wolves are shooting 50.0% from the field (4th in NBA) and 39.1% from three (4th in NBA), which is elite on both fronts. They’re averaging 26.4 assists per game and have a solid 1.759 assist-to-turnover ratio. Jaden McDaniels adds 17.7 PPG and elite defense, while Donte DiVincenzo provides 14.1 PPG off the bench with 2.9 triples per game.
But here’s the catch: Minnesota just got worked by Denver 123-112 at home on Friday. They were outscored in both the third and fourth quarters after leading at halftime. This is a team that’s 3-3 at home compared to 5-2 on the road, and they’re coming off a loss where their defense got carved up. They’re allowing 115.85 PPG, which isn’t terrible but isn’t lockdown either.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game’s going to be decided by pace and execution in the half-court. Minnesota wants to push tempo — they’re averaging 86.2 possessions per game and scoring 120.7 PPG. Dallas plays slower at 87.8 possessions but scores just 111.3 PPG. The Wolves want to run, and if they get out in transition, this could get ugly fast.
The shooting differential is massive: Minnesota’s 50.04% FG and 39.1% from three against Dallas’s 44.75% FG and 31.0% from three. That’s the kind of gap that historically leads to blowouts. But Dallas counters with rebounding — they’re grabbing 57.9 boards per game compared to Minnesota’s 51.2. The Mavs create extra possessions and limit the Wolves’ second chances.
Head-to-head history shows competitive games: Dallas is 6-4 straight up and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. These teams split the season series last year, and the games averaged 109 points per team with tight finishes. Minnesota’s won both meetings this season, but Dallas covered at home in January with a final of 115-114.
The Timberwolves shoot 78.3% from the free-throw line compared to Dallas’s 74.3%, and free throws matter in close games. But Dallas gets there more often — 28.9 FTA per game (3rd) versus Minnesota’s 26.2 (14th). If this game stays close, those extra trips to the line keep Dallas within striking distance.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering Dallas +14 before this line moves. Here’s why: The books are giving you two full touchdowns on a Mavericks team that just scored 138 and has real talent in Flagg, Washington, and Max Christie. Minnesota’s defense isn’t lockdown — they just gave up 123 to Denver at home. Dallas plays hard, rebounds like crazy (57.9 per game), and gets to the line. Fourteen points is too many against a motivated Dallas squad playing the second night of a back-to-back.
Minnesota wins this game, but 123-112 or 120-110 gets Dallas the cover. The Mavs are 2-2 ATS on the road this season despite their struggles, and historically they’ve covered 70% of the time against the Wolves. This number screams trap — Vegas wants you on Minnesota laying two touchdowns, and I’m taking the points all day long.
BASH’S BEST BET: Mavericks +14 (-110)
The market’s disrespecting Dallas here. This team has pro-level talent with Flagg emerging as a rookie stud, Washington averaging 15+ and 7+ boards, and a rebounding edge that keeps possessions alive. Minnesota’s going to score — they always do — but 14 points is way too much cushion. Load up on Dallas before the sharp money moves this number down. The writing’s on the wall: Mavs keep this closer than Vegas thinks.
