Milwaukee Bucks vs. Toronto Raptors ATS Prediction

by | Jan 31, 2019 | nba

Milwaukee Bucks (36-13 SU, 27-19-3 ATS) vs. Toronto Raptors (37-15 SU, 23-29 ATS)
When: Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 8:00 PM ET
Where: Scotiabank Arena – Toronto, ON
TV: TNT

Point Spread: MIL +2.5 / TOR -2.5
Total: 229.5

Power Rankings: Toronto -2

Takeaways From Milwaukee and Toronto’s Most Recent Games

The Bucks enter into this contest in soaring form as they have won eight of their last ten matches overall. Most recently, the Bucks defeated their divisional rival the Detroit Pistons on the road on Tuesday beating the Pistons 115-105 to generate a cover as a seven-point favorite. The cover ended a four-game skid of the Bucks failing to produce an against-the-spread win.

The Raptors come in off a 123-120 win on the road on Sunday against the Dallas Mavericks to wrap up a three-game road trip. The Raptors failed to produce a cover for the second consecutive game as they were favored by 4.5 points.

How the Public is Betting the Milwaukee-Toronto Game

At the moment, 68% of the consensus like the Raptors here at the current spot. Despite this substantial lean by the public we have actually seen the market descend by half of a point downward to reflect early money on the Bucks who opened as a three-point underdog.

The Historicals

The Raptors and Bucks have already engaged in three bouts this season. The last meeting between these two foes took place earlier this month in Milwaukee where the Raptors pulled off an impressive road win when they defeated the Deers 123-116 on their own court despite being a 5.5-point underdog.

Injury Concerns

There are no prominent injury concerns heading into this pivotal Eastern Conference clash for either team.

Rest Advantages and Concerns

Toronto is back home after wrapping up a three-game road trip that ended on Sunday. Heading into this contest, the Raptors have had two more days to prepare compared to their opponents. Toronto will be home for a two-game stint that wraps up against the Los Angeles Clippers visiting on Sunday. As for Milwaukee, the Bucks they are in the midst of a five-game road trip that culminates on Monday when it wraps up against the Brooklyn Nets before returning home to face Washington on Wednesday.

Milwaukee Will Be Motivated To Avenge Early January Loss

The Bucks are the best team in the NBA in three categories. First, Milwaukee is the best offensive rebounding team in the NBA as they produce 48.8 boards per game. Defensively, no one reduces opponent field goal efficiency like Milwaukee. Against the Bucks, opponents average 43.2% from the field and also struggle mightily from the free-throw line as opponents hit just 73.4% of their attempts. This also puts Milwaukee on top of the list regarding opponent free throw percentage. Combining these advantages with the motivation to avenge the loss suffered at home earlier this month against this Toronto team, the Bucks have plenty of incentive and plenty of angles to work against the Raptors.

Toronto Will Look To Hone Home Court Advantage To Secure Win

The Raptors have established a reputation of being a force to be reckoned with in their own house. Known as “The Great White North”, the Raptors have emerged as one of the toughest teams to beat on their own hardwood. They were the best in the NBA in home wins and losses in the 2017-18 season, and they are in a position to vie for that superlative here in the 2018-19 campaign. In Toronto, the Raptors are 21-4 SU. In addition to their prominent home court advantage, the Raptors will look to hone strengths in the turnover department to keep their passionate fan base engaged and make things difficult for the visiting Bucks. Toronto will also look to an edge in their bench operations as their bench generates 35.1 points per game compared to Milwaukee’s 31.3 bench points per contest. Toronto will look to utilize all of these angles to get the win against the Bucks.

Betting Trends

Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its previous six meetings that have taken place in Toronto. Mirroring this trend of the Away Team owning an edge concerning value, the Road Team has also won four of the last five contests between these two sides. For Over/Under players, the Over is 5-1 ATS in the previous six matches between both teams.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Milwaukee +115 (Money Line)

Given how dominant Toronto has been on its own court for the last two seasons, Raptors takers can expect to pay a premium to back Toronto here in a high-profile game such as this one. It is for this reason that the Raptors are a losing proposition at home against the spread this season with a 12-13 ATS record in the Great White North. The fact remains that the Bucks are presently the best team in the NBA and we are getting them here at a bargain price as a result of the Raptors likely being overvalued on their own court. The Bucks won’t be phased by the hostile environment as this team has won five of its last seven away games, some of which were earned in some rather unwelcoming places, including Houston and Memphis. The Bucks will continue to play at the high level they have performing at and pull the upset if it should even be called that.

Spurs Kings Odds Best Line at
Spurs -1.5 (-10)
Kings +2   (-115)