Weekly NBA Betting Notes and Plays
RBD breaks down his NBA betting homework, using percentages, models, and situational handicapping to find value in tonight’s picks.
I was thinking – if Denver is such a tough environment for visiting teams to play in because of the altitude, what is the record of teams who are playing in Game 2 of B2B’s at Denver?
I don’t know the answer. Yet.
But I do know what today’s handicapping homework assignment is (I’ll get back to you with the answer.)
I also know I’m taking the Over in New York Knicks at Denver Nuggets tomorrow night.
Why?
I’m riding the percentages.
Denver will be in a Game two of B2B’s Friday night.
The Nuggets are 10-3 to the Over in this spot.
I’ll pick up writing the rest of this column Friday morning, after I crunch the numbers and run all the games through my math models.
Obviously, I’m hoping I get a T1 Over (37-20) on the Denver game, too.
See you tomorrow.
Friday, March 6th
After going through my morning handicapping routine here’s what I have regarding New York at Denver.
Nothing.
Doesn’t qualify for any of my models, not for a Wrong Favorite and not for a total.
Both T1 and T2 models say the game goes Over but not by enough points to qualify as an official play.
So I’m buying it strictly based on the B2B numbers.
New York is 14-17 Ov/Un on the Rd.
No help there.
Denver is 15-14 Ov/Un at Hm; slight edge in my favor there.
H2H (Head to Head) these two have met once this season.
They combined for 261 points.
Hoping for a similar game tonight.
Unfortunately none of tonight’s games qualify as a T1 Over spot.
One game qualifies for a T2 Over but they’re barely profitable now at 52-45, and it’s on the Houston game. The Rockets are 3-5 on Overs in Game two so no play there.
But I do have one other play tonight.
The Heat played last night.
Miami is 9-4 ATS in Game two’s.
Even better, they’re 5-1 ATS when Game two is a Rd game.
Even ‘Mo better – when they’re a dog in Game two the Heat are 3-1 SU and ATS.
And they’re getting points tonight.
Miami opened as five point underdogs.
The common number is now +7′.
I don’t think it gets much higher so I’m going to buy it now.
New York at Denver opened at 231 and it’s down to 229′. I think it’s still too high at that number.
Since it’s moving in the right direction I’ll wait just a little longer on this one and buy it later, hope I can get the hook off. Worst case, I’ll take the current number if it starts to rise.
My plays:
NY/Den Ov (wait to buy)
Mia +7′
Side note
Currently spinning on my turntable (Yes, turntable. I prefer my rock and roll with a little snap, crackle, and pop rather than the steroid-like quality of a CD) – Roxy Music’s “In Every Dream Home a Heartache.”
I was watching Mindhunter on Netflix and saw the perfect marriage of sound and vision.
The visual was Gary Ridgway’s wife catching him at, well, at being Gary Ridgway.
The audio accompanying it was Roxy’s haunting “Dream Home.”
I forgot how talented a vocalist and lyricist Bryan Ferry is.
And how haunting this melody is.
It’s been stuck in my head for three days now.
Check it out.
Recap
Recap: 1-0
Record: 21-14
Review
I used Indy/LAC in the T1 Over spot.
Got a line of 227.
They scored 237.
NEXT!!!
