Need a winning ticket for this Western Conference showdown? Our handicapper, Bash, is eyeing the value on the side. Get his full game breakdown and his top best bet for the Nuggets at Suns.
The Setup: Nuggets at Suns
The books are hanging Denver at -4.5 on the road against a Phoenix team that’s 8-3 at home, and I’m supposed to believe the Nuggets are just gonna waltz into the Mortgage Matchup Center and cover that number? Look, I get it – Nikola Jokic is averaging a ridiculous 29.1 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 11.0 assists per game. The man’s a walking triple-double machine. But here’s what Vegas isn’t screaming at you: Denver’s missing Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun, both out with significant injuries. Gordon’s hamstring keeps him sidelined for weeks, and Braun’s ankle won’t see action for another month-plus. Meanwhile, the Nuggets just got torched by San Antonio at home, giving up 139 points in a loss that knocked them out of NBA Cup contention. The market’s disrespecting Phoenix here, and I’m paying attention. The Suns are 12-8 overall, sitting sixth in the West, and they’ve been money at home. Yeah, they’re coming off a tough loss in Oklahoma City, but that was a 123-119 battle against the Thunder where they hung tough. This spread feels like the books are begging you to take Denver’s star power without considering the context. I’m not buying it.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: November 29, 2025, 9:00 ET
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
TV: Check local listings
Current Odds (MyBookie.ag):
Spread: Denver Nuggets -4.5 (-110) | Phoenix Suns +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Nuggets -182 | Suns +146
Total: 233.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The books know exactly what they’re doing here. They’re dangling Jokic’s MVP-caliber numbers in front of your face – 29.1 points, 12.6 boards, 11.0 dimes – and hoping you forget that basketball’s a team game. Jamal Murray’s been solid at 24.0 points and 6.8 assists per game, but that’s not enough to overcome the loss of Gordon’s 18.8 points and versatile two-way presence. This is exactly the spot where Denver burns you. They’re 7-2 on the road, which looks impressive on paper, but how many of those wins came with a healthy roster? The Nuggets are 13-5 overall and sitting fifth in the West, but they just surrendered 139 points to the Spurs at home. That defensive effort was pathetic, and now they’re supposed to tighten up on the road?
Phoenix checks in at 12-8 with a solid 8-3 home record. Devin Booker’s putting up 25.8 points and 6.9 assists, while Dillon Brooks has emerged as a legitimate secondary scorer at 21.1 points per game. The Suns are missing Grayson Allen and his 18.5 points per game, but they’ve got depth and home-court advantage. The line’s set at 4.5 because Vegas wants you thinking about Jokic’s dominance without considering Denver’s depleted rotation. Sharp money knows what’s up here – this number’s inflated based on reputation rather than reality. The total at 233.5 suggests a shootout, which plays into Phoenix’s hands at home where they’ve been comfortable all season.
Nuggets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Denver’s offensive firepower starts and ends with Jokic, who’s putting together another MVP-worthy campaign. The Serbian big man’s 29.1 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 11.0 assists per game make him the most complete player in basketball. Murray’s 24.0 points and 6.8 assists provide secondary creation, but here’s the problem: Gordon’s absence kills their defensive versatility and takes away 18.8 points per game. Braun’s ankle injury removes another rotation piece who provides energy and defense.
The Nuggets are 13-5 overall, but that San Antonio loss exposed some serious cracks. Giving up 139 points at home isn’t a fluke – it’s a red flag. Devin Vassell went off for 35 points on 7-of-9 from three, and the Spurs shot the lights out because Denver couldn’t get stops. Julian Strawther’s also out with a back issue, further thinning their depth. On the road, Denver’s 7-2 record looks solid, but road wins are tough to sustain when you’re missing multiple rotation players. The offensive burden falls entirely on Jokic and Murray, and while they’re capable of carrying the load, asking them to cover 4.5 points in a hostile environment is a tall order.
Suns Breakdown: The Other Side
Phoenix has quietly put together a respectable 12-8 start, and their 8-3 home record tells you everything you need to know about their comfort level at the Mortgage Matchup Center. Booker’s 25.8 points and 6.9 assists anchor the offense, while Brooks has been a revelation at 21.1 points per game. That’s a legitimate one-two punch that can match up with Denver’s stars. Allen’s absence hurts – his 18.5 points and floor spacing are missed – but Phoenix has shown they can win without him.
The Suns just battled Oklahoma City tough on the road, losing 123-119 in a game where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander needed 37 points to put them away. That’s not a team folding under pressure; that’s a team competing at a high level against elite competition. The Thunder scored 15 points in the final seven minutes to seal it, but Phoenix hung around and made it a fight. Coming back home after a tough road loss, the Suns should be motivated to protect their house. Their 4-5 road record shows they’re much better at home, where they control the environment and feed off crowd energy. Jordan Goodwin’s ankle injury from the Thunder game is listed as day-to-day, and Isaiah Livers remains out, but their core rotation is intact.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Denver’s star power can overcome their depleted roster against a motivated home team. Jokic will get his numbers – that’s guaranteed – but can Murray and the supporting cast provide enough help to win by five-plus points? I’ve seen this movie before, and it usually doesn’t end well for the short-handed road favorite. Phoenix’s home-court advantage is real. That 8-3 record at the Mortgage Matchup Center reflects a team that plays with confidence in front of their crowd.
The total at 233.5 suggests both teams will score, which makes sense given Denver’s offensive firepower and Phoenix’s ability to put up points with Booker and Brooks. But here’s the key: the Suns don’t need to outscore Denver by a wide margin. They just need to stay within striking distance and make winning plays down the stretch. Denver’s defensive issues were on full display against San Antonio, and Phoenix has the offensive weapons to exploit those same weaknesses. Booker can get hot from anywhere on the floor, and Brooks provides the secondary scoring to keep pressure on Denver’s thin rotation.
The pace and possessions matter here. If Phoenix can control tempo and force Denver into a halfcourt game, they neutralize some of Jokic’s transition playmaking. The Suns need to make this a grind-it-out affair where every possession matters, not a track meet where Denver’s stars can freestyle. With Gordon out, Denver loses their best perimeter defender, which means Booker should have clean looks all night. That’s a matchup advantage Phoenix needs to exploit ruthlessly.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Phoenix Suns +4.5 (-110)
I’m hammering this number before it moves. The public’s all over Denver because they see Jokic’s stat line and assume it’s an easy road cover. Wrong. The Nuggets are banged up, coming off an embarrassing defensive performance, and walking into a hostile environment against a Suns team that’s 8-3 at home. Phoenix has the offensive firepower to hang with Denver, and they don’t need to win outright – they just need to stay within four points. That’s a gift.
Denver’s 7-2 road record is impressive, but context matters. How many of those wins came with a healthy Gordon anchoring the defense? The Suns are motivated after a tough loss in Oklahoma City, and they’ll be ready to protect home court. Booker and Brooks can match Denver’s scoring punch, and the Suns’ depth gives them an edge with Denver’s rotation thinned out. This line should be closer to 2.5 or 3, which means we’re getting value at 4.5. That’s a trap set for the public, and I’m taking the points all day long. Confidence Level: 4 Units. The market’s giving us a gift here, and sharp money knows the Suns can cover this spread at home. Vegas wants you blinded by Jokic’s brilliance, but I’m betting on Phoenix’s home-court edge and Denver’s defensive vulnerabilities. Cash it.
