The Grizzlies enter Sunday as 7-point favorites, but with Ja Morant out and the Nets resting leading scorer Michael Porter Jr., both teams are missing their primary offensive engines. Our analytical preview explains why the Under is a strong ATS pick in a game defined by major roster absences.
The Setup: Nets at Grizzlies
Memphis is laying 7 points at home against Brooklyn on Sunday afternoon, and on the surface, this number makes sense. The Grizzlies are 16-22 but still fighting for playoff position in the West. The Nets are 11-24 and sitting 13th in the East. Home team getting a full touchdown against a struggling road opponent — the market’s logic is clear.
Here’s the thing — Memphis is without Ja Morant, who’s missing his fifth straight game with a right calf contusion. They’re also without Brandon Clarke, who just returned from a 26-game absence only to strain his calf four minutes into his second game back. So we’re being asked to lay 7 points with a Grizzlies team missing its best playmaker and primary offensive engine, at home, against a Nets squad that’s actually been more competent on the road (6-9) than at home (5-15).
Let me walk you through why this line exists, and more importantly, why I think it’s inflated by at least a possession or two once you account for what Memphis actually looks like without Morant running the show.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Brooklyn Nets at Memphis Grizzlies
Date: January 11, 2026
Time: 3:30 ET
Venue: FedExForum
Current Spread: Memphis -7.0 (-115) | Brooklyn +7.0 (-105)
Moneyline: Memphis -275 | Brooklyn +225
Total: 220.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is giving Memphis this number based on home court, conference strength perception, and the general assumption that a 16-22 team should handle an 11-24 opponent. That’s the surface-level logic, and it’s not wrong — it’s just incomplete.
What the line doesn’t fully account for is how dramatically Memphis changes without Morant. He’s averaging 19.0 points and 7.6 assists per game this season, and while those numbers might not scream MVP, his impact on pace and offensive creation is irreplaceable in this roster construction. When Morant sits, Memphis loses its primary ball handler, its best pick-and-roll operator, and the guy who generates the easiest looks for Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama.
Brooklyn, meanwhile, is getting 25.9 points per game from Michael Porter Jr. and another 19.6 from Cam Thomas. That’s legitimate scoring punch, even if the supporting cast is thin. The Nets are 6-9 on the road, which isn’t great, but it’s better than their 5-15 home mark — and that tells you something about how this team performs when expectations are low and the environment is less pressurized.
The total sitting at 220 suggests the market expects a relatively efficient game, but I keep coming back to this: without Morant, Memphis doesn’t generate clean offense consistently enough to blow anyone out, even a struggling Nets team.
Brooklyn Nets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Nets are bad, but they’re not disorganized. Porter Jr. is having a career year at 25.9 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, and he’s the kind of versatile scorer who can exploit Memphis’s perimeter defense without Morant’s help defense on the other end. Thomas gives them a secondary creator at 19.6 points per game, and Nicolas Claxton provides rim protection and playmaking at 13.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 4.1 assists.
Brooklyn’s problem isn’t talent at the top — it’s depth and consistency. But in a game where Memphis is shorthanded and missing its engine, the Nets don’t need to be great for 48 minutes. They just need to stay within striking distance and capitalize on Memphis’s offensive droughts, which happen frequently without Morant orchestrating.
The Nets just lost to the Clippers 121-105 on Friday, but that was against a healthy, talented LA squad with Harden and Leonard. This is a different matchup entirely — a Memphis team that just blew a 21-point lead to Oklahoma City and lost 117-116 at home. That’s not a team you lay 7 with, even against Brooklyn.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: The Other Side
Memphis is trying to stay afloat in the playoff race, but they’re doing it with duct tape and hope right now. Jaren Jackson Jr. is averaging 18.6 points and 5.6 rebounds, and Santi Aldama is chipping in 14.0 points and 6.7 boards. Those are solid contributors, but neither is a primary creator. Jackson is a finisher, not a facilitator, and Aldama is a complementary piece, not a go-to option.
Without Morant, the Grizzlies are asking Cam Spencer — who’s filling in as a starter — to run the offense. That’s not a sustainable formula against even a mediocre defense. Memphis’s recent loss to Oklahoma City is instructive: they built a 21-point lead, then couldn’t execute down the stretch because they don’t have a closer or a reliable half-court playmaker.
John Konchar is listed as questionable, and even if he returns, he’s a spot-up shooter coming off a torn UCL in his left thumb. He’s not solving Memphis’s creation problem. Brandon Clarke is out, which thins their frontcourt rotation even further. This is a Grizzlies team that’s functional but limited, and 7 points is asking them to dominate a game they’re more likely to grind out.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the half-court, and that’s where Memphis struggles most without Morant. The Grizzlies can’t consistently generate clean looks in the pick-and-roll, and Brooklyn has enough size with Claxton to contest at the rim. Porter Jr. and Thomas can both score in isolation, which matters when possessions get ugly and the game slows down.
Once you dig into the matchup data, the efficiency gap between these teams isn’t as wide as the spread suggests. Memphis is better, sure, but not by a full touchdown when they’re missing their best player and Brooklyn is getting 45+ points per game from their top two scorers. Over 96 possessions, that margin compresses quickly.
The main risk here is Memphis catching fire from three or Jackson dominating inside, but even then, Brooklyn has shown they can hang around on the road. The Nets are 6-9 away from home, and while that’s not impressive, it’s competent enough to stay within a possession or two of a shorthanded Memphis squad.
I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. Memphis at full strength? Maybe I’m laying 7. Memphis without Morant and Clarke, against a Nets team with two legitimate scorers? That number feels stretched by at least two points.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Brooklyn Nets +7.0 (-105) | 2 Units
I’m taking Brooklyn and the points. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests, and Memphis simply doesn’t have the offensive firepower to pull away without Morant. The Nets have enough scoring with Porter Jr. and Thomas to keep this competitive, and their road record (6-9) tells me they can handle a neutral-to-hostile environment like FedExForum on a Sunday afternoon.
The main risk is Memphis hitting from deep and Jackson controlling the paint, but even in that scenario, I trust Brooklyn to stay within a possession or two. The Grizzlies just blew a 21-point lead at home against OKC — that’s not a team you confidently lay 7 with, especially when they’re missing their best player.
When you do the math over 96 possessions, this game feels like a four or five-point margin at best. I’ll take the full seven and trust Brooklyn to keep it close. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts.
