The Denver Nuggets host the Brooklyn Nets at Ball Arena in a matchup where the “Jokic Factor” is the ultimate statistical variable. In our latest ATS picks, we analyze why Denver’s #2-ranked scoring offense faces a massive efficiency drop-off without Nikola Jokic’s 11.0 assists per game, and how the Nets’ perimeter volume could exploit a thinned-out Nuggets rotation.
The Setup: Nets at Nuggets
The Nets travel to Ball Arena on Thursday night as 7.5-point underdogs against a Nuggets squad that’s playing without their MVP. Denver sits at 31-16 and third in the West, but Nikola Jokic remains out with a left knee bone bruise—he hasn’t played since December 29th. Brooklyn limps in at 12-33, losers of their last outing in Phoenix where they fell 106-102 despite keeping it competitive late. The total sits at 210.5, and here’s what matters: this number reflects Denver’s ability to win without Jokic, but the margin shrinks considerably when you account for pace, efficiency, and the Nets’ recent shot-making variance. The line exists because Denver’s home court and depth should carry them, but 7.5 points against a Nets team that’s covered sporadically on the road creates value once you dig into the possessions math.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Date: Thursday, January 29, 2026
Time: 9:00 ET
Location: Ball Arena
TV: YES, ALT2/KTVD, NBA League Pass
Current Odds (MyBookie.ag):
Spread: Nuggets -7.5 (-110) | Nets +7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Nuggets -294 | Nets +230
Total: 210.5 (Over -110 | Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Denver -7.5 because Jamal Murray becomes the primary engine without Jokic, and Murray’s averaging 25.9 points and 7.4 assists this season. Aaron Gordon chips in 17.7 points and 6.2 boards, giving Denver two legitimate scoring threats who can operate in half-court sets. The Nuggets are 12-9 at home—not dominant, but competent enough to handle a 12-33 Brooklyn squad that’s struggled both home and road with identical 6-17 and 6-16 splits.
But here’s the context the number doesn’t fully capture: Denver’s actually been better on the road this year at 19-7, which suggests their home court advantage isn’t as pronounced as typical contenders. Without Jokic orchestrating possessions and controlling pace, the Nuggets lose their primary playmaker who averages 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists. That’s not just production—it’s offensive structure. Murray can score, but he doesn’t replicate Jokic’s ability to manipulate defenses and create high-efficiency looks for others.
The total at 210.5 anticipates a slower game without Jokic’s pace-pushing, but Brooklyn’s shown they can score in spurts. Michael Porter Jr. leads the Nets at 25.2 points per game with 7.2 rebounds, and Cam Thomas adds 15.9 points. The Nets lost a close one in Phoenix, staying within four points despite being shorthanded. That’s the type of competitive variance that makes 7.5 points wider than it needs to be.
Nets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Brooklyn’s 12-33 record screams fade, but the context matters for a Thursday night spot in Denver. Porter Jr. has carried the offensive load at 25.2 points per game, and while his efficiency fluctuates, he’s capable of stretching defenses with his shooting range. Thomas provides secondary scoring at 15.9 points, and Noah Clowney—who’s questionable for this one—adds 13.1 points and 4.3 rebounds when available. If Clowney sits for a third straight game, the Nets lose some frontcourt depth, but they’ve adjusted by spreading minutes across their rotation.
Haywood Highsmith remains out recovering from right knee surgery, and Egor Demin is out for this first leg of a back-to-back set. The Nets are thin, but they’re not rolling over. They kept it competitive against Phoenix despite the short rotation, and that defensive effort late in the fourth quarter—even with the scuffle—showed they’re still competing possession-to-possession.
The issue for Brooklyn is consistency. They don’t defend efficiently enough to slow down Murray and Gordon for 48 minutes, and their offensive execution stalls when Porter Jr. isn’t hitting shots. But in a game where Denver’s missing their best player and playmaker, the Nets have enough scoring punch to stay within range if they shoot decently from three-point range.
Nuggets Breakdown: The Other Side
Denver’s 31-16 record looks solid until you realize they’re 12-9 at home and 19-7 on the road. That inverse split suggests they’re more dangerous as the underdog or away team, which doesn’t help laying 7.5 at Ball Arena. Murray’s 25.9 points and 7.4 assists give them a closer, and Gordon’s 17.7 points provide interior scoring and transition opportunities. But without Jokic, the Nuggets lose their offensive hub—the guy who averages a triple-double and controls pace with his passing vision.
Cameron Johnson remains out with a bone bruise in his right knee, further limiting Denver’s wing depth. Tamar Bates is out with a foot injury. The Nuggets have enough talent to beat Brooklyn straight up, but covering 7.5 points requires offensive execution they haven’t consistently shown at home this season. They just lost to Detroit 109-107 on Tuesday night, letting the Pistons hang around and nearly steal it late. Tobias Harris hit two free throws with two seconds left to seal it, and Denver couldn’t generate a clean look to tie.
That’s the concern here: Denver’s capable of winning, but they’re not blowing teams out without Jokic. They grind through possessions, rely on Murray’s shot creation, and hope Gordon can finish around the rim. Against a Nets team that’s competitive in spurts, 7.5 points feels like a number or two too many.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to pace and half-court execution. Without Jokic, Denver can’t push tempo the way they normally do, which means more half-court possessions where Murray and Gordon have to create against set defenses. Brooklyn’s defense isn’t elite, but they’re scrappy enough to contest shots and force Denver into contested looks late in the shot clock.
Offensively, the Nets need Porter Jr. to stay aggressive and hit perimeter shots to keep Denver’s defense honest. If Porter Jr. gets going early and Thomas provides secondary scoring, Brooklyn can stay within single digits deep into the fourth quarter. The problem is sustaining that offense for 48 minutes without Clowney’s frontcourt presence if he sits again.
Denver’s advantage is depth and home court, but their 12-9 home record doesn’t inspire confidence laying more than a touchdown. The Nuggets should win this game, but the margin matters. Over an estimated 95-98 possessions, Denver needs to be nearly two possessions per 100 more efficient than Brooklyn to cover 7.5 points. That’s doable with Jokic. Without him, it’s a grind.
The total at 210.5 leans under given Denver’s slower pace without their primary playmaker, but Brooklyn’s capable of pushing that number if Porter Jr. and Thomas combine for 40-plus points. The safer play is the spread, where Brooklyn’s competitive variance and Denver’s home struggles create value on the underdog.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m backing the Nets to cover 7.5 points in a game Denver should win but won’t dominate. The Nuggets are 12-9 at home and just lost to Detroit in a grind-it-out game on Tuesday. Without Jokic, they lack the offensive structure to blow out even a 12-33 Brooklyn squad that’s shown fight recently. Porter Jr. gives the Nets enough scoring punch to stay within range, and Murray’s playmaking—while solid—doesn’t replicate what Jokic brings as a facilitator.
The main risk is Brooklyn’s thin rotation and potential absence of Clowney, which limits their frontcourt depth. If Denver gets out in transition early and builds a double-digit lead, the Nets don’t have the firepower to mount a sustained comeback. But at 7.5 points, Brooklyn has room to lose by six or seven and still cash the ticket. Denver’s home splits and recent loss to Detroit suggest they’re not covering inflated numbers without their MVP.
BASH’S BEST BET: Nets +7.5 for 2 units.
Denver wins, but Brooklyn keeps it close enough to cover. The number’s a point or two too wide given the context, and that’s where the value sits on Thursday night.
