Recency bias is inflating the line. Bryan Bash breaks down the market and reveals why Hawks +6.0 is the high-value best bet of the night.
The Setup: Nuggets at Hawks
Denver laying 6 points in Atlanta? The books are begging you to take the Nuggets here, and I’m not biting. Look, I get it—Jamal Murray just dropped 52 points on Indiana with a ridiculous 10-of-11 from deep, and Nikola Jokic is doing his usual MVP thing with 28.7 PPG, 12.6 RPG, and 11.1 APG on the season. But here’s what Vegas isn’t advertising: Denver’s 6-4 at home and 9-2 on the road, while Atlanta sits at 4-5 at home and somehow 9-5 on the road. That’s backwards, people. The Hawks are better away from State Farm Arena than in it, and now they’re getting 6 points at home against a Nuggets team that just played Wednesday night? Sharp money knows what’s up here—this number feels inflated by Murray’s explosion, and the market’s disrespecting a Hawks squad that’s quietly sitting at 13-10 despite all the noise about their inconsistency.
The Nuggets are 15-6 and rolling, but they’re also without Aaron Gordon for 4-6 weeks with a hamstring injury, and that’s a massive blow to their defensive versatility and interior presence. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s got question marks with Jalen Johnson (calf) and Kristaps Porzingis (illness) both questionable, but Johnson’s been their engine at 23.2 PPG, 10.0 RPG, and 7.3 APG. If he plays, this line drops fast. If he doesn’t, we’ve got value on a Hawks team that’s shown they can compete with anybody when the shots are falling. I’m hammering this number before it moves, because 6 points feels like 3 points too many.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 5, 2025, 7:30 ET
Venue: State Farm Arena
Spread: Denver Nuggets -6.0 (-110) | Atlanta Hawks +6.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Nuggets -250 | Hawks +196
Total: 238.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let me tell you exactly why this line exists: recency bias and star power. The public sees Murray’s 52-point nuclear explosion and Jokic’s nightly triple-double threat, and they’re falling over themselves to lay 6 with Denver. That’s exactly what the books want. The Nuggets are 15-6, fifth in the West, and they’ve got the reigning MVP putting up video game numbers. But here’s the thing—this is exactly the spot where Denver burns you.
Look at the actual numbers. Denver’s road splits are elite at 9-2, but that also means they’re due for regression. Atlanta’s 13-10 record doesn’t scream “lay points against them,” especially when you consider they’re getting +196 on the moneyline. That’s essentially saying the Hawks have a 34% chance to win this game straight up at home. I’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t end well for the chalk. The market’s pricing in Murray’s career night like it’s sustainable—spoiler alert, shooting 10-of-11 from three isn’t happening again anytime soon.
The total sitting at 238.5 is interesting too. That’s a pace-up number, which tells me the books expect Denver to push tempo and Atlanta to try keeping up. But with potential injury concerns for both Johnson and Porzingis, that total could be vulnerable to the under if the Hawks are shorthanded. The books know something we don’t, but I’m not buying it—this line screams trap game for Denver backers who are chasing yesterday’s performance.
Nuggets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Denver’s offense runs through the two-man game of Jokic and Murray, and right now, it’s unstoppable. Jokic is averaging a ridiculous 28.7 points, 12.6 boards, and 11.1 assists per game—that’s basically a guaranteed triple-double every night. Murray’s chipping in 24.7 PPG and 6.6 APG, and after that 52-point outburst against Indiana, he’s feeling himself. But here’s the problem: Aaron Gordon is out, and he was giving them 18.8 PPG and 5.9 RPG before the hamstring injury. That’s a massive hole in their frontcourt depth and perimeter defense.
The Nuggets’ road success at 9-2 is impressive, but it’s also built on Jokic playing heavy minutes and carrying the offensive load. They just played Wednesday night in Indianapolis, which means they’re on short rest heading into Atlanta on Friday. That’s not ideal for a team that relies so heavily on two guys. Spencer Jones is questionable with a knee issue, and Julian Strawther remains out with no timetable, so their bench depth is already thin. When you’re laying 6 points on the road without your third-best player, you better be firing on all cylinders—and I’m not convinced Denver has enough in the tank after Murray’s 52-point explosion.
Hawks Breakdown: The Other Side
Atlanta’s been a weird team all season—better on the road at 9-5 than at home at 4-5, which makes zero sense until you watch them play. They’re loose and aggressive away from State Farm Arena, but they tighten up in front of their home crowd. Still, they’re 13-10 overall, which is solid for a team that was supposed to be rebuilding. Jalen Johnson has emerged as a legitimate star, putting up 23.2 PPG, 10.0 RPG, and 7.3 APG—those are All-Star caliber numbers. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is contributing 20.4 PPG, and Porzingis adds 18.7 PPG and 5.9 RPG when healthy.
The big question is health. Johnson’s questionable with a calf issue, and Porzingis is dealing with an illness. If both sit, this line makes a lot more sense, and I’d probably stay away. But if Johnson plays—even at 80%—the Hawks have enough firepower to stay within 6 points of anybody. They just lost to the Clippers 115-92 on Wednesday, getting torched by James Harden’s 27 points and 9 assists, but that was without their full arsenal. Jacob Toppin is out with a shoulder injury, but he’s a role player who doesn’t move the needle. The real concern is whether Johnson and Porzingis suit up, because without them, Atlanta’s offense loses its two most versatile weapons.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to pace and execution. Denver wants to push tempo and get Jokic operating in space, while Atlanta needs to slow things down and force half-court sets where they can use Johnson’s playmaking and Porzingis’s size. The Nuggets have the advantage in the backcourt with Murray and Jokic’s two-man game, but Atlanta’s length with Johnson and Porzingis can cause problems in the paint.
The public’s all over Denver here, which means the smart money is looking at Atlanta plus the points. Denver’s 9-2 road record is impressive, but they’re also coming off an emotional win where Murray went supernova. That’s the classic letdown spot—you just watched your teammate drop 52, you’re feeling good, and then you walk into a trap game against a frisky Hawks team that’s desperate for a home win. Atlanta’s 4-5 at home is concerning, but they’re also getting 6 points, which is a massive cushion against a Nuggets team playing on short rest without Aaron Gordon.
The total at 238.5 suggests a high-scoring affair, but I’m not so sure. If Johnson and Porzingis are limited or out, Atlanta’s offense stalls, and that number comes crashing down. If they’re healthy, we could see a shootout, but I’d lean toward the under given the defensive potential when both teams are locked in. The key matchup is Jokic versus whoever Atlanta throws at him—probably Porzingis if he plays, but if not, they’re in trouble. Jokic will get his 30-12-10, but the question is whether Murray can replicate even 50% of Wednesday’s performance, and I don’t think he can.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Atlanta Hawks +6.0 (-110) all day long. This line’s a trap, plain and simple. Denver’s coming off a massive emotional high, they’re on short rest, and they’re missing Aaron Gordon. Atlanta’s got the home court—even if they haven’t defended it well—and they’re getting 6 points as a live dog. If Jalen Johnson plays, this line should be closer to 3 or 4, and we’re getting massive value at 6. Even if he sits, I trust Porzingis and Alexander-Walker to keep this within a possession or two.
The market’s disrespecting Atlanta here, and that’s exactly when I pounce. Denver’s going to win a lot of games this season, but laying 6 on the road in a potential letdown spot? No thanks. Give me the Hawks plus the points, and I’m putting 2 units on this play with high confidence. The public’s all over the Nuggets, which means the books are laughing all the way to the bank when Atlanta covers. Sharp money knows what’s up here—this is a classic fade-the-public spot, and I’m hammering it before the line moves. Hawks +6, lock it in.
