The oddsmakers have hung a double-digit number on the Denver Nuggets in Sacramento, and frankly, it looks like a gift to bettors. With the Kings missing their “Big Three” of Sabonis, LaVine, and likely Schroder, and Denver riding a historic road winning streak, this matchup screams blowout. We break down why the 10-point spread might still be too low for Nikola Jokic and company.
The Setup: Nuggets at Kings
MyBookie are hanging Denver -10 against a Sacramento squad that’s completely gutted, and I’m supposed to believe this is a fair number? The Nuggets are rolling into Golden 1 Center on an 11-2 road record with Nikola Jokic putting up video game numbers—29.2 PPG, 12.3 RPG, and 11.0 APG. Meanwhile, the Kings are 6-18 overall and just 3-7 at home, missing their three best players in Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, and likely Dennis Schroder. The market’s begging you to take the points with Sacramento because double digits always look scary, but I’ve seen this movie before. When a contender faces a depleted lottery team, you don’t get cute. Denver just extended their franchise-record road winning streak to 10 games with a win in Charlotte, and they’re not about to let up against a Kings team that’s completely overmatched. The public’s going to see that 10-point spread and think it’s too many—that’s exactly what Vegas wants you to think.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 11, 2025, 10:00 ET
Venue: Golden 1 Center
Spread: Denver Nuggets -10.0 (-110) | Sacramento Kings +10.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Nuggets -455 | Kings +340
Total: 239.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let’s talk about why the books settled on 10 here. Denver’s sitting at 17-6 and ranked 2nd in the Western Conference, while Sacramento’s wallowing at 13th with a 6-18 record. That’s a 5.5-game gap in the standings, but the talent gap is even wider when you factor in injuries. The Kings are without Sabonis, who’s been their anchor at 17.2 PPG and 12.3 RPG, and LaVine, who leads them at 20.6 PPG. Schroder’s doubtful too, which means Sacramento’s running out a skeleton crew against the league’s most dominant two-man game in Jokic and Jamal Murray.
The -455 moneyline tells you everything—Vegas knows Denver should win this going away. But that 10-point spread? That’s designed to make you think twice. The books know casual bettors see double digits and automatically think “too many points.” Sharp money knows what’s up here: when you’re getting a healthy MVP candidate against a team missing its top three scorers, you don’t overthink it. The Kings’ 3-11 road record shows they can’t win away from home, and their 3-7 home mark proves they’re not much better in Sacramento. This number should be higher, and I’m hammering it before the market wakes up.
Nuggets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Denver’s road dominance isn’t a fluke—it’s a product of having the best player on the planet. Jokic is putting up a triple-double season at 29.2 points, 12.3 boards, and 11.0 dimes per game, and he’s got a legitimate co-star in Murray, who’s averaging 25.0 PPG and 6.8 APG. That two-man game is unstoppable when it’s clicking, and Charlotte just found that out the hard way when Murray dropped 34 and Jokic added 28 in their latest win.
Yes, Aaron Gordon’s out until after Christmas with a hamstring issue, and they’re missing Julian Strawther and Christian Braun too. But here’s the thing: the Nuggets are 11-2 on the road this season, which means they’ve already been winning without full health. Gordon’s 18.8 PPG is a loss, sure, but when you’ve got two guys averaging 54 combined points per game, you can absorb that hit against a depleted Kings squad. Tim Hardaway Jr. stepped up with 14 in Charlotte, and Denver’s got enough depth to handle a team that’s barely fielding an NBA rotation right now.
Kings Breakdown: The Other Side
Sacramento’s season has been a complete disaster, and the injury report reads like a hospital ward. Sabonis is out with a partially torn meniscus and won’t be back for at least another week or two. LaVine’s dealing with thumb soreness and is ruled out. Schroder’s doubtful with a hip issue. That leaves DeMar DeRozan as the only healthy rotation player averaging in double figures at 18.0 PPG, and he’s been inefficient all season.
The Kings just got throttled in Indiana, losing 116-105, and that was with a healthier roster. Now they’re facing a Denver team that’s been the best road squad in basketball? This is exactly the spot where Sacramento burns you if you’re chasing points. Their 6-18 record isn’t a mirage—this team can’t score consistently, can’t defend, and can’t stay healthy. When your three leading scorers are all out or questionable, you’re not covering 10 points against a championship-caliber opponent. The market’s disrespecting Denver here by not making this number 12 or 13.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and at the free-throw line. Jokic is going to feast against whatever makeshift frontcourt Sacramento throws at him. Without Sabonis to provide any resistance, the Nuggets’ offense runs through their MVP, and there’s nobody on the Kings’ roster who can slow him down. Murray’s going to get his looks in pick-and-roll action, and Denver’s going to control the pace from start to finish.
The 239.5 total is interesting because Denver’s been efficient but not necessarily high-scoring on the road, and Sacramento’s offense is completely neutered without their top players. But here’s the thing: the Nuggets don’t need to score 130 to cover 10 points. They just need to play their game, and Sacramento has no answers. Denver’s 11-2 road mark compared to Sacramento’s 3-7 home record tells you everything about how this matchup breaks down. The Nuggets have won games in hostile environments all season, and Golden 1 Center with a depleted home team isn’t going to present any challenges.
Historically, when contenders face lottery teams missing multiple starters, the favorite covers at a 60-plus percent clip. This isn’t a rivalry game or a letdown spot—it’s a professional basketball team taking care of business against an undermanned opponent. Vegas knows something we don’t, but I’m not buying it. This line exists at 10 because the books want you to think it’s too many. It’s not.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the 10 points with Denver and sleeping like a baby tonight. The Nuggets are 11-2 on the road, they’ve got the best player in the world, and they’re facing a Kings team that’s missing Sabonis, LaVine, and likely Schroder. This is a 15-point game that’s being offered at 10 because the books know casual bettors get scared of double digits. Don’t be that guy.
Jokic and Murray combine for 54.2 PPG, and Sacramento doesn’t have the personnel to slow down either of them. DeRozan’s going to try his best, but one guy can’t carry a team against a legitimate title contender. I’m putting 3 units on Denver -10 with high confidence, and I’d play it up to -11 if the line moves. The sharp money knows what’s up here—you don’t overthink layups, and this is as close to a layup as you’ll find in the NBA. Hammer the Nuggets, cash the ticket, and thank me later. This line’s a gift, and I’m not letting it sit there.
