The market is laying two 3-pointers or up to three possesions possessions with the injury-plagued Nuggets, but Washington’s #6-ranked tempo suggests a live underdog spot. This best bet analyzes if Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George can utilize the Wizards’ pace to capitalize on Denver’s lack of interior depth.
The Setup: Nuggets at Wizards
Denver lays 5.5 in Washington on Thursday night, and the immediate reaction is simple: the Nuggets are 29-15, the Wizards are 10-32, and even without Nikola Jokic this should be a comfortable road win. But here’s what the market is telling you—this number sits at 5.5 instead of 8 or 9 because Denver’s rotation depth without their MVP is thinner than you think, and Washington’s pace creates more possessions for variance to creep in. The Nuggets are 17-7 on the road this season, which is legitimately elite, but removing a guy who averages 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists per game changes the efficiency math in ways that make this spread tighter than the records suggest. This line exists because the market respects what Jamal Murray can do as a primary option, but it also knows Washington plays fast enough to keep this competitive into the fourth quarter.
Game Info & Betting Lines
When: Thursday, January 22, 2026, 7:00 ET
Where: Capital One Arena
Watch: MNMT (Home), Altitude Sports, NBA League Pass
Current Odds (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Denver Nuggets -5.5 (-110) | Washington Wizards +5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Denver -222 | Washington +177
- Total: 231.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed at 5.5 because Denver’s roster construction is built around Jokic’s unique ability to generate efficient offense without needing traditional structure. Take him out, and you’re left with Murray averaging 26.0 points and 7.4 assists, Aaron Gordon chipping in 18.0 points per game, and then a significant drop-off in offensive creation. Jonas Valanciunas is questionable but even if he returns, he doesn’t replicate what Jokic does as a facilitator. The Nuggets are still a better team than Washington by a wide margin, but the gap narrows when you remove the connective tissue that makes their offense hum at elite efficiency levels.
Washington sits at 10-32 for a reason—they’re rebuilding, they lack defensive discipline, and they’re missing Trae Young, who would have provided 19.3 points and 8.9 assists per game. But they’re not a team that rolls over at home. Alexandre Sarr is averaging 17.2 points and 7.4 rebounds, and KyShawn George adds 15.5 points and 4.9 assists. This isn’t a roster that will lock down Murray or Gordon, but it’s a roster that plays with enough pace to create extra possessions where variance can swing a few buckets either way. The total at 231.5 reflects that pace expectation—both teams will get up and down, and the lack of Jokic’s methodical halfcourt control means Denver will push tempo more than usual to compensate.
Denver Nuggets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Denver’s 29-15 record is built on two pillars: Jokic’s brilliance and their ability to win on the road. That 17-7 road mark is third-best in the Western Conference, and it speaks to a team that doesn’t rely on home whistle or crowd energy to execute. But without Jokic, Murray becomes the entire offensive engine, and while he’s averaging 26.0 points per game this season, he’s not a guy who can replicate Jokic’s playmaking. Gordon provides secondary scoring at 18.0 per game, but he’s not a creator—he’s a finisher who benefits from Jokic’s gravity and passing.
The injury report tells the story: Jokic is out and ahead of schedule in his recovery, but he’s not playing Thursday. Cameron Johnson remains out with a bone bruise, which removes another wing option. Valanciunas is questionable, and even if he plays, he’s coming off a four-week absence with a calf strain. That’s not a guy you lean on for 30 minutes in his first game back. Denver’s depth is tested here, and while they’re still the better team, the margin for error is smaller than the 5.5-point spread suggests when you account for how much offensive creation disappears without Jokic on the floor.
Washington Wizards Breakdown: The Other Side
Washington’s 10-32 record is ugly, but context matters. They’re 6-14 at home, which means they lose most of their games at Capital One Arena, but they’re not getting blown out every night. Sarr and George provide enough scoring punch to keep games within reach, and without Young in the lineup, they’re leaning on Tre Johnson and Bub Carrington to push minutes near 30 per game. That’s a rotation that plays fast, takes quick shots, and doesn’t bog down possessions with halfcourt sets.
The Wizards are missing Trae Young, who would have been their primary playmaker, and Cam Whitmore is out for the season. Bilal Coulibaly is questionable but has been upgraded to day-to-day, and if he returns, he adds 10.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game. That’s not a game-changer, but it’s another body who can defend multiple positions and provide secondary ball-handling. The bigger issue for Washington is defensive consistency—they don’t have the personnel to slow down Murray or Gordon in isolation, and they’ll likely give up efficient looks all night. But their pace creates enough possessions that they can stay within striking distance if they convert in transition and avoid long scoring droughts.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to pace and possession efficiency. Washington will push tempo to create extra possessions, and Denver will try to control the game through Murray’s scoring and Gordon’s finishing around the rim. The total at 231.5 reflects the expectation that both teams will get up and down, but the spread at 5.5 tells you the market isn’t confident Denver can pull away without Jokic’s ability to dictate pace and generate high-percentage looks.
Murray’s usage rate will spike without Jokic on the floor, and while he’s capable of carrying the offensive load, he’s not a guy who makes everyone around him better the way Jokic does. Gordon will get his touches, but he’s reliant on others creating for him. If Valanciunas plays, he provides some interior presence, but he’s not a playmaker and he’s coming off a month-long absence. That’s a lot of question marks for a team laying 5.5 on the road against a team that plays fast enough to create variance.
Washington’s path to covering is simple: push pace, force Denver into transition defense, and hope Sarr and George can combine for 35-plus points. They don’t need to win—they just need to stay within six points, and their pace gives them enough possessions to do that if they avoid long scoring droughts. Denver’s path to covering is more complicated: they need Murray to dominate, Gordon to finish efficiently, and their defense to limit Washington’s transition opportunities. That’s a lot to ask from a rotation that’s missing its best player and dealing with multiple injury concerns.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Washington +5.5 for 2 units. Denver is the better team, and they’ll likely win this game straight up, but the market is overvaluing their ability to cover without Jokic. Murray is a capable scorer, but he’s not a guy who can single-handedly blow out a team on the road, and Gordon’s scoring is dependent on others creating for him. Washington’s pace creates enough possessions that they can stay within striking distance, and their home court gives them just enough edge to keep this game within a possession or two down the stretch.
The risk here is that Denver’s defense locks in and they turn this into a methodical grind where Murray and Gordon control the tempo. But without Jokic, I don’t see Denver having the offensive firepower to pull away by double digits. Washington will push pace, Sarr and George will get their points, and the Wizards will hang around long enough to cover. This number should be closer to 3.5 or 4, and I’ll take the extra point and a half with the home dog.
BASH’S BEST BET: Washington Wizards +5.5 for 2 units.
