RBD breaks down his betting approach on Magic vs Cavs, highlighting trends, line movement, and sharp handicapping angles.
It’s been three days since I’ve had action on any kind of sporting event, so yeah – I’m getting a little antsy to spend some quality time yelling at my TV.
A quick check of the guide shows only one NBA game televised in my area tonight, Sacramento Kings at Charlotte Hornets.
But I’m not going to bet it.
Why not?
Two reasons:
One: Because it doesn’t qualify as a play for any of my handicapping models.
Two: Because I’m not an amateur.
I’m not new to the Battle with the Books.
I KNOW that betting on a game solely because it’s on TV and you’d like a rooting interest is usually a losing proposition.
(No, I didn’t spring for the NBA package so I can watch all of the games. I don’t even like watching the ones that are on free TV, even when I have money on it!)
Though I have a plus balance on the NBA and can afford to risk a unit I’m not going to do it.
Teams have only about 10 games left in the regular season and I aim to keep that plus balance and hit my two main goals:
DON’T lose money.
Finish the season with a profit – ANY profit.
Though I won’t have any tube bets I will have some action on a game that I’ll be monitoring via the play-by-play section of the sports ticker.
Orlando B2B Spot
The Orlando Magic are playing in Game two of B2B’s.
The Magic played 11 B2B’s this season.
In Game two they’re 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS.
That 7-4 says there’s a 63% chance they’ll cover tonight.
They’re on the road, as Dogs in Cleveland.
Of the 11 Game two B2B spots the Magic have only been the underdog in four of them.
Their record as Dogs is 3-1, 75%.
And they’re not just Dogs tonight, they’re BIG Dogs, getting Double Digits.
As Double Digit Dogs, all games this season, Orlando is 1-1.
Cleveland as Big Favorites
But here’s where the numbers get really good.
As Double Digit Favs the Cavs are 4-15.
That means the Cavs are covering just 11% of games in which they’re Favs of 10 points or higher.
Seems like the boys in Cleveland are slackers.
Maybe those numbers improve at home?
Nope.
As Hm Favs of 10 or more points Cleveland is just 2-10, an 83% Fade.
Head-to-Head and Line Movement
Heads to head the Cavs have the lead in the season series, 2-1 SU.
They won by 14 points and 16 points, both numbers higher than I’m getting in today’s game.
But the Magic won the last meeting, 128-122, giving them a chance to even up the series tonight.
The Cavs opened at -10, and right now it’s -10′ pretty much across the board, but I see a couple houses have already gone to -11.
Line’s moving in my favor and I’m hoping Joe Public continues to pour money on the Fav, so I’m waiting to buy this one.
My Play
Orl + (wait to buy)
Recap
Recap: 0-1
Record: 28-19
Review
Last bet I had was Bos/Mem Ov 229′.
The game landed on 229.
Missed by the hook.
Blame Boston – I said in my write-up I need them to hit their threes, because I can’t depend on Orlando to get the scores I need.
The Celtics shot just 11-42 from downtown.
Blame Memphis – at the five minute mark of the fourth quarter they had 103 points.
Four minutes later they STILL had 103.
In a tight game, at home, they went FOUR minutes (a full 1/3 of the quarter) without scoring a single point.
Blame Tatum – he missed a free throw with 15 seconds left in the game.
But mostly, blame ME.
Once again – I did my handicapping, did my write-up, edited and submitted it, and THEN went to bet the game.
Buying it earlier would have banked a W.
