Bryan Bash breaks down why this line’s a trap — the Mavericks laying 7 points against an injury-ravaged Pacers squad that refuses to quit.
The Setup: Pacers at Mavericks
This line’s a trap, folks. The Mavericks are laying 7 points at home against a Pacers team that’s 0-3 and looking like they couldn’t guard a parked car. Vegas has this total sitting at 227.5-228.5 points, and the books are practically daring you to hammer Dallas and take the Over. But here’s what sharp money knows: when a team loses its entire roster to injuries and the market still expects them to roll over, that’s exactly when they bite back.
Look, the Pacers are decimated. Tyrese Haliburton is done for the season after tearing his Achilles in the NBA Finals. Bennedict Mathurin, their leading scorer at 31 PPG, is week-to-week with a toe injury. Obi Toppin’s out for at least a month with a hamstring. Andrew Nembhard, T.J. McConnell – the list goes on. They showed up to Minnesota with journeymen like Jay Huff and Isaiah Jackson in the starting lineup. That’s not a rotation, that’s a practice squad.
But here’s the thing about Dallas – they’re not exactly world-beaters either. The Mavericks are 1-3, sitting dead last in their division, and they just got torched by Oklahoma City 101-94 in a game where Cooper Flagg, the No. 1 pick, scored 2 points on 1-of-9 shooting after banging his shoulder in the first possession. Kyrie Irving’s still out until January recovering from knee surgery. Dereck Lively II is doubtful with a knee issue. The market’s disrespecting Indiana here, and I’m not buying what Vegas is selling.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: October 29, 2025 at 8:30 PM ET
- Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
- Spread: Mavericks -7
- Total: 227.5-228.5 points (O/U)
- Moneyline: Pacers +226-230 | Mavericks -280-286
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let me break down exactly why this number landed at 7. The casual bettor looks at Indiana’s injury report, sees they’re 0-3 with losses in double overtime to OKC and by 4 points to Minnesota, and thinks Dallas at home is a lock. The Mavericks are supposed to be a playoff team, right? Anthony Davis is putting up 25 PPG and 11.8 rebounds. They’re at home on their opening five-game homestand. Seven points? That’s nothing.
But the books know something the public doesn’t. This is exactly the spot where Dallas has burned bettors all season. They’re 1-3 at home to start this year – their worst start since the 1983-84 Kansas City Kings had a five-game homestand to open the season. Davis is averaging 25 PPG, sure, but his plus/minus is minus-6. When he’s on the floor, they’re getting outscored. That’s not the profile of a dominant team.
The Pacers’ Pascal Siakam just dropped 33 points in that Minnesota game before they fell 114-110. Aaron Nesmith added 18. This team can score even without their stars – they’re averaging 116 PPG through three games. The public’s all over Dallas because Indiana looks like a MASH unit, but sharp money knows that 7 points is way too fat for a home team that’s struggling this badly.
The total of 227.5-228.5 is fascinating. Both teams want to run – Indiana’s averaging 23.3 assists per game with a 1.59 assist-to-turnover ratio. Dallas is allowing 127.7 PPG through four contests. That Thunder game on Monday? It finished 101-94, way under the number. When teams are this banged up, pace slows down and possessions get uglier. This number screams Under.
Pacers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Pacers are 0-3, sitting last in the East, but they’re scrappy as hell. Pascal Siakam is carrying the load with 26 PPG, 10.3 rebounds, and 6 assists. He’s shooting 45.9% from the field and has two double-doubles in three games. That’s your alpha dog right there – a guy who went to war in the NBA Finals and knows how to compete when everything’s falling apart.
Before Bennedict Mathurin went down with the toe sprain, he was averaging 31 PPG on 54.8% shooting and 88.5% from the charity stripe. That’s elite production. Now he’s week-to-week, which means Indiana’s leaning even harder on Siakam, Aaron Nesmith (12.7 PPG), and Obi Toppin (14 PPG before his hamstring injury sidelined him for a month).
The injury situation is catastrophic. Haliburton out for the season. Mathurin week-to-week. Toppin out a month. Nembhard and McConnell both sidelined. Johnny Furphy out. Kam Jones won’t be back until November 9th. This roster has seven players unavailable, and they’re still competing in every game. That loss to OKC went to double overtime. The Minnesota game was a 4-point defeat where they led late.
Defensively, they’re allowing 127.7 PPG – dead last in the league. But they’re forcing turnovers and getting to the line. Indiana shoots 30 free throws per game, which keeps them in games when shooting goes cold. Ben Sheppard, a second-year guy out of Belmont, is starting and averaging 10 PPG with 6.3 rebounds. When your lineup includes journeymen and rookies, chemistry doesn’t matter – it’s pure heart and hustle.
Mavericks Breakdown: The Other Side
The Mavericks are 1-3, sitting 14th in the West with a minus-6 point differential through four games. Anthony Davis is the workhorse with 25 PPG, 11.8 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks. He’s shooting 52.1% from the field and has four double-doubles in four games. But that minus-6 plus/minus tells the real story – when AD’s on the floor, Dallas is getting cooked.
P.J. Washington gives them a second option with 16.8 PPG and 7.5 rebounds, shooting 53.1% from the field. But he’s also sporting a brutal minus-10 rating. Cooper Flagg, the No. 1 overall pick, is struggling at 13 PPG on 38% shooting and a team-worst minus-12.5. After that shoulder injury against OKC, he managed just 2 points on 1-of-9 shooting. The rookie wall hit early.
D’Angelo Russell is averaging 10 PPG and 5.5 assists off the bench, but he’s shooting 29.3% from the field and 17.6% from three. That’s unplayable. Max Christie provides a spark with 12.3 PPG on 55.2% shooting and a scorching 56.5% from deep, but he’s a role player – not someone who can carry you when the stars struggle.
The injury report is brutal for Dallas too. Kyrie Irving’s out until January. Dereck Lively II is doubtful with a knee contusion. Daniel Gafford is doubtful with an ankle issue. Davis himself is listed as probable with an Achilles concern. Dante Exum’s out until November. This is exactly the spot where a supposed home favorite looks great on paper but can’t cover the number.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to pace, paint presence, and free throws. Both teams want to push tempo, but with all these injuries, neither has the depth to sustain that pace for 48 minutes. From the data we saw, Indiana averages 58.7 total rebounds per game compared to Dallas’s 56.8. The Pacers crash the offensive glass hard – 12.7 offensive boards per game versus Dallas’s 9. That’s second-chance points and extra possessions.
The paint battle is crucial. Indiana scores 46.7 points in the paint per game. Dallas allows 58.5 PPG in the paint – 28th in the league. Siakam thrives in the mid-range and around the basket. With Lively and Gafford both questionable, the Mavericks’ rim protection is compromised. Expect Indiana to attack the basket relentlessly.
The Pacers get to the line 30 times per game. Dallas fouls at a rate of 21 personal fouls per game – 4th fewest in the league, which means they play clean defense. But when you’re undermanned and trying to stop penetration, fouls pile up. If Indiana shoots 30+ free throws and converts at 72%, that’s 21-22 points from the charity stripe alone.
From recent games, we know these depleted rosters lead to ugly, grinding affairs. That Thunder-Mavericks game finished 101-94 – both teams struggled to score without their full arsenals. The Timberwolves-Pacers game was 114-110, and Minnesota only pulled away late after Julius Randle’s 31-point explosion. I’ve seen this movie before: two injury-riddled teams scrapping for 105-110 points in a game that stays tight throughout.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
Here’s the cold, hard truth: Dallas is not good enough to lay 7 points against anybody right now, let alone a Pacers team that’s been competitive in every loss. The public sees Indiana’s injury report and thinks it’s free money. That’s exactly the spot where the Pacers cover and maybe even win outright at +226-230.
Pascal Siakam just went for 33 points against Minnesota. Aaron Nesmith is knocking down shots. This team plays hard every possession because they have nothing to lose. Dallas, meanwhile, is 1-3 at home with a banged-up roster and a No. 1 pick who can’t buy a bucket. The writing’s on the wall with this matchup – it’s a one-possession game late.
I’m taking Pacers +7 with maximum confidence. This line should be closer to 4 or 4.5. Indiana covers easily, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they win straight up. Dallas has zero momentum, zero chemistry with all these injuries, and they’re being overvalued because they’re at home.
On the total, I’m hammering the Under 227.5-228.5. Both rosters are decimated. Pace will slow. Shooting percentages will drop. That Thunder-Mavs game went 101-94 for a reason – when star players are out, offenses sputter. Load up on this before the sharp money drives it down to 220.
BASH’S BEST BET: Pacers +7 + Under 227.5 – The market’s begging you to fade the winless Pacers, but sharp money knows Siakam’s 26 PPG and a Mavericks team with a minus-6 differential means this game stays within a bucket. That’s a double-barrel winner that Vegas doesn’t want you to see.
