NBA Picks

Detroit’s 30-10 record and dominant home court create a pace and efficiency advantage that makes 3 points feel light against a Celtics team still adjusting to life without Jayson Tatum.

The Nuggets are laying just 2 points at home against Charlotte on Sunday night, but the Hornets are playing the second leg of a back-to-back after traveling from the Bay Area. Denver’s missing Jokic, but Jamal Murray just dropped 42, and Charlotte’s fatigue at altitude is the deciding factor.

The Lakers lay just a point at home against Toronto in a Sunday night matchup where both teams are dealing with major rotation losses. With Reaves out for LA and Barrett plus Poeltl sidelined for Toronto, this becomes a game decided by star power and depth management.

Orlando lays 4 in London after beating Memphis by 7 in Berlin, but Ja Morant’s return changes the efficiency math. Bryan Bash breaks down why the Grizzlies’ best offensive engine makes this spread too wide on a neutral floor.

Denver lays 13 at home against Washington, but without Jokic, Valanciunas, and Cameron Johnson, this line is inflated. The Nuggets win, but the Wizards keep it closer than two possessions. Bash breaks down why the injuries create real value on the dog.

Dallas is laying 3.5 points at home against Utah in a Saturday rematch, but Cooper Flagg’s status creates line value. The Mavericks just blew out the Jazz 144-122 without their rookie, and Utah’s 5-15 road record reflects real defensive issues without Walker Kessler. Bash breaks down why Dallas covers even if Flagg sits again.

Detroit is laying 12.5 at home against a Pacers team that’s 2-16 on the road, but Indiana just dropped 127 on New Orleans. Bryan Bash breaks down why this spread asks too much of a Pistons team that needed a rally to escape Phoenix by three at home.

LaMelo Ball’s hot hand meets Golden State’s home fortress in a pace-and-efficiency battle. The Warriors are laying 6.5 at Chase Center, but the total at 233 is where the real value sits in this Saturday night showdown.