NBA Picks

Orlando lays 4 in London after beating Memphis by 7 in Berlin, but Ja Morant’s return changes the efficiency math. Bryan Bash breaks down why the Grizzlies’ best offensive engine makes this spread too wide on a neutral floor.

Denver lays 13 at home against Washington, but without Jokic, Valanciunas, and Cameron Johnson, this line is inflated. The Nuggets win, but the Wizards keep it closer than two possessions. Bash breaks down why the injuries create real value on the dog.

Dallas is laying 3.5 points at home against Utah in a Saturday rematch, but Cooper Flagg’s status creates line value. The Mavericks just blew out the Jazz 144-122 without their rookie, and Utah’s 5-15 road record reflects real defensive issues without Walker Kessler. Bash breaks down why Dallas covers even if Flagg sits again.

Detroit is laying 12.5 at home against a Pacers team that’s 2-16 on the road, but Indiana just dropped 127 on New Orleans. Bryan Bash breaks down why this spread asks too much of a Pistons team that needed a rally to escape Phoenix by three at home.

LaMelo Ball’s hot hand meets Golden State’s home fortress in a pace-and-efficiency battle. The Warriors are laying 6.5 at Chase Center, but the total at 233 is where the real value sits in this Saturday night showdown.

The Lakers head to Portland as 3-point underdogs without Austin Reaves, and that absence changes everything. Bash breaks down why the Trail Blazers are positioned to cover at home against a compromised Lakers rotation.

The Thunder lay 10 points in Miami against a Heat team missing three rotation players. When elite defense meets depleted depth, the math favors Oklahoma City to control pace and pull away late.

Boston lays 3 points at State Farm Arena, and that spread undersells the Celtics’ road dominance against Atlanta’s home struggles. With a 13-8 road record facing a Hawks team that’s 7-11 at home, Boston’s depth and fourth-quarter execution make this number exploitable.