The Bulls face a grim New Year’s Eve at the United Center after losing leading scorers Josh Giddey and Coby White to leg injuries in their last outing. Bash breaks down the point spread and why the Pelicans’ healthy trio of Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, and Jordan Poole creates a massive talent gap.
The Setup: Pelicans at Bulls
New Orleans is laying 1.0 on the road against Chicago on New Year’s Eve, and on the surface, this number makes sense. The Bulls just lost their top two scorers to injuries, the Pelicans are desperate for any kind of momentum, and the market is essentially calling this a pick’em with a slight lean toward the visiting team. But here’s the thing — when you dig into what both teams actually do on a possession-by-possession basis, this line starts to look like a gift. Chicago is missing Josh Giddey and Coby White, who combine for 38.4 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 13.7 assists per game. That’s not just production — that’s the entire offensive engine. Meanwhile, New Orleans is getting Zion Williamson (22.3 PPG), Trey Murphy III (20.7 PPG), and Jordan Poole (16.7 PPG) in a spot where the Bulls simply don’t have the personnel to match up. I keep coming back to this: Chicago got blown out by 35 points in their last game without those two guys, and now they’re supposed to hang with a Pelicans team that’s healthier and more talented? Let me walk you through why this line exists — and why it’s not nearly high enough.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 31, 2025, 7:00 ET
Venue: United Center
Spread: New Orleans Pelicans -1.0 (-110) | Chicago Bulls +1.0 (-110)
Total: Over/Under 244.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Pelicans -110 | Bulls -110
Why This Line Exists
The market is giving Chicago credit for being at home and assuming that New Orleans, at 8-26 overall and 2-11 on the road, can’t be trusted in any spot. That’s fair on the surface. The Pelicans have been one of the worst teams in the league this season, sitting 15th in the Western Conference and losing games they should win. But the Bulls are 15-17 and sitting 9th in the East — not exactly a powerhouse themselves. The difference here is personnel. Chicago just lost Giddey to a hamstring strain that’s going to sideline him for “at least a few weeks,” and White went down in the same game. Those two players account for nearly 40 points per game and handle the vast majority of Chicago’s playmaking and shot creation. Without them, the Bulls got absolutely demolished by Minnesota, losing 136-101. That’s not just a bad loss — that’s a complete structural collapse. The market is pricing this game like Chicago still has a functional rotation, but once you factor in the reality of who’s actually on the floor, this spread should be closer to 4 or 5 points. New Orleans has Zion, Murphy, and Poole all healthy and available. That’s a massive talent advantage over a Bulls team that’s now relying on Nikola Vucevic (16.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG) and a bunch of replacement-level role players.
New Orleans Pelicans Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Pelicans have been bad this year, no question. But bad teams can still win games when they have a clear talent edge, and that’s exactly what we’re looking at here. Zion Williamson is averaging 22.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, and he’s one of the most efficient interior scorers in the league when healthy. Trey Murphy III has emerged as a legitimate second option at 20.7 points and 6.1 rebounds per game, and Jordan Poole gives them a third scoring threat at 16.7 points per game. That’s three guys who can create their own shot and put pressure on a defense that’s already stretched thin. The main concern for New Orleans is defense — they’ve been leaky all season and struggle to get stops consistently. But against a Bulls team that just lost its two best offensive players, that weakness becomes far less relevant. Herbert Jones is out with an ankle injury, which hurts their perimeter defense, but Chicago doesn’t have the firepower to exploit that. The Pelicans are also getting Dejounte Murray back soon, though he’s still listed as out for this game. Even without Murray, this is a roster that should dominate a depleted Chicago squad.
Chicago Bulls Breakdown: The Other Side
Chicago’s season was already teetering, and now it’s on the verge of collapse. Josh Giddey was their primary playmaker at 19.2 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game, and Coby White was their most dynamic scorer at 19.2 points and 4.7 assists. Losing both in the same game is catastrophic. Nikola Vucevic is a solid veteran big at 16.1 points and 8.9 rebounds, but he’s not a guy who can carry an offense night after night. The rest of the rotation is filled with role players who aren’t equipped to handle significant usage increases. In their last game without Giddey and White, the Bulls got torched by Minnesota, allowing 136 points and losing by 35. That’s not just a bad performance — that’s a team that has no idea how to function without its best players. The Bulls are 8-8 at home, which suggests they get a small boost from playing at the United Center, but that edge evaporates when you don’t have the personnel to execute. This is a team that’s going to struggle to score, struggle to defend, and struggle to stay competitive for 48 minutes.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests — except it does the opposite. New Orleans has a massive advantage in talent, depth, and shot creation. Chicago’s offense is built around Giddey’s playmaking and White’s scoring, and without them, there’s no clear plan for how to generate quality looks. Vucevic will get his touches in the post, but he’s not efficient enough to carry the load. Meanwhile, Zion should feast in the paint against a Bulls frontcourt that’s already struggled to defend the rim. Trey Murphy gives New Orleans spacing and shot-making from the perimeter, and Poole can attack off the dribble and create for others. The Pelicans are 2-11 on the road, which is ugly, but most of those losses came against competent teams with functional rotations. This is a Bulls squad that’s missing its two best players and coming off a 35-point blowout. When you do the math over 96 possessions, the efficiency gap is enormous. New Orleans should be able to generate better shots, control the pace, and exploit Chicago’s lack of depth. The main risk here is that the Pelicans are so bad defensively that they let Chicago hang around, but I don’t see where the Bulls’ offense is coming from. Even if Vucevic has a big game, that’s not enough to make up for the absence of Giddey and White.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the 1.0 with the Pelicans, and I’m doing it with confidence. This is a spot where the market is giving Chicago way too much credit for being at home and not enough respect to the talent gap. New Orleans has Zion, Murphy, and Poole all healthy, and Chicago is trotting out a rotation that just got demolished by 35 points. The main risk here is that New Orleans doesn’t take this game seriously or plays down to the competition, but at 8-26, they can’t afford to let winnable games slip away. This is a New Year’s Eve fade spot on a wounded Bulls team that doesn’t have the horses to keep up. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. Pelicans -1.0 for 2 units. Take the talent, take the matchup, and cash the ticket before midnight.
