The Nets are 1-10 at home, yet the books want you to lay points? I’ve seen this movie before, and it ends with the public shredding their tickets. We’re digging into the “Battle of the Bottom Feeders” to find out why the 3-20 Pelicans might be the smartest play on the board.
The Setup: Pelicans at Nets
They shaded the wrong side — and we’re walking right through the open door. The Brooklyn Nets are laying 3.5 points at home against a New Orleans Pelicans squad that’s limping into Barclays Center with a 3-20 record and absolutely nothing working. The books are begging you to take Brooklyn here, and I get it—the Pelicans are a disaster right now, sitting dead last in the Eastern Conference standings at 15th while the Nets are at 13th with a 5-17 record. But here’s the thing: Brooklyn is 1-10 at home this season. Let me repeat that—ONE AND TEN at Barclays Center. Meanwhile, New Orleans might be 1-9 on the road, but we’re talking about two teams that can’t defend, can’t close games, and are in full tank mode whether they admit it or not. The market’s disrespecting the Pelicans here, and while I’m not saying they’re world-beaters, this number smells like a trap. When you’ve got two bottom-feeders and the home team can’t win in their own building, you better think twice before laying points.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 6, 2025, 5:00 ET
Venue: Barclays Center
Spread: Brooklyn Nets -3.5 (-110) | New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Nets -161 | Pelicans +130
Total: Over/Under 229.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Vegas is banking on you looking at that 3-20 Pelicans record and immediately fading them. And honestly, I don’t blame anyone for that instinct—New Orleans has been absolutely brutal this season. But let’s talk about what’s really happening here. The Nets are 1-10 at home, which is one of the worst home records in the entire league. They’re 4-7 on the road, which means they’ve actually been BETTER away from Brooklyn than in their own building. That’s a massive red flag when you’re being asked to lay points with them at Barclays Center.
The injury situation complicates things too. New Orleans is without Herbert Jones and Jordan Poole (17.3 PPG), while Yves Missi is questionable. That’s significant firepower missing. But Brooklyn’s got their own problems with Cam Thomas (21.4 PPG) still out with that hamstring strain. When you’ve got two depleted rosters and the “favorite” can’t win at home, this line starts looking shakier by the minute.
The total sitting at 229.0 tells you everything about how Vegas sees this game—two teams that can’t stop anybody, playing at a decent pace, with points flying around. But that spread at 3.5? That’s the books trying to get two-way action on a game where neither team deserves your confidence. Sharp money knows what’s up here—when the home team is this bad at home, you’re getting value on the dog just by default.
Pelicans Breakdown: What You Need to Know
New Orleans is a complete mess right now, let’s not sugarcoat it. That 3-20 record speaks for itself, and they’re getting destroyed both at home (2-11) and on the road (1-9). Zion Williamson is still producing with 22.1 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 4.0 APG, but he can’t carry this team by himself. Trey Murphy III has stepped up with 20.4 PPG and 6.6 RPG, giving them a secondary scoring option that’s actually been reliable.
The problem is depth and defense. With Jordan Poole out (17.3 PPG, 3.4 APG), they’re missing a legitimate ball-handler and scorer who could take pressure off Zion. Herbert Jones being out kills them defensively—he’s one of their few plus defenders. And if Yves Missi can’t go, their interior defense gets even worse.
But here’s what the Pelicans CAN do: they can score. When you’ve got Zion and Murphy both averaging over 20 PPG, you’ve got enough firepower to keep pace in a track meet. And against a Brooklyn team that just gave up 42 points in the fourth quarter to Utah? New Orleans can hang around in this one.
Nets Breakdown: The Other Side
Brooklyn’s 5-17 record is only marginally better than New Orleans, and that 1-10 home record is absolutely killer for anyone trying to back them here. The Nets just got torched by Utah, giving up 123 points and getting outscored 42-20 in the fourth quarter. That’s not a team you want to lay points with, even against a bad opponent.
The offense has some pieces. Michael Porter Jr. is having a career year with 25.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 3.2 APG—wait, that can’t be right. Let me check the data again. Actually, that’s showing Michael Porter Jr. on the Nets, which seems like a data error since he plays for Denver. Regardless, the Nets have been getting production from their roster, but without Cam Thomas (21.4 PPG), they’re missing their primary scorer and closer.
Nicolas Claxton provides 13.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 4.2 APG, giving them some interior presence. Noah Clowney is probable, which helps their frontcourt depth. But the bottom line is this: the Nets can’t defend, can’t close games, and can’t win at home. That’s a brutal combination when you’re being asked to cover nearly four points.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game is going to be decided by who can make stops down the stretch, and based on what we’ve seen, neither team is particularly good at that. The total at 229.0 suggests a high-scoring affair, and I’m inclined to agree. Both teams struggle defensively, and with key defenders missing on both sides, this could turn into a shootout.
The key factor here is Brooklyn’s home/road split. They’re 1-10 at Barclays Center compared to 4-7 on the road. That’s a massive discrepancy that tells you something is fundamentally broken with this team at home. Whether it’s crowd energy, comfort level, or just bad luck, the Nets have been significantly worse in Brooklyn than anywhere else.
New Orleans might be 1-9 on the road, but they’ve got Zion and Murphy capable of getting buckets in bunches. Against a Brooklyn defense that just surrendered 42 fourth-quarter points to Utah, the Pelicans have enough offensive firepower to keep this close. I’ve seen this movie before—bad team lays points at home against another bad team, and the dog covers because the favorite can’t pull away.
The pace should favor both teams scoring. Neither squad plays elite defense, and with the total set at 229, Vegas is expecting points. That means possessions matter, and in a game with multiple possessions down the stretch, getting 3.5 points is valuable.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering the Pelicans +3.5 before this number moves. Look, I’m not telling you New Orleans is going to win this game outright—they might, given Brooklyn’s home struggles, but I’m not banking on it. What I AM banking on is that a team with Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III can keep this game within a single possession against a Nets squad that’s 1-10 at home and just got destroyed by Utah.
The public’s all over Brooklyn here because they see that 3-20 record and assume the Pelicans are automatic fades. But this is exactly the spot where the Nets burn you. They’re laying points at home where they’ve been absolutely dreadful, against a team that has enough offensive talent to hang around. Give me the points all day long.
The Play: Pelicans +3.5 (-110)
Confidence: 3 Units
This line’s a joke, and I’m taking advantage of it. Brooklyn’s home record is a disaster, and I’m not laying points with a team that can’t win in their own building. Sharp money knows what’s up here—when you get nearly four points with a team that can score, you take it and don’t look back.
