With both rosters sitting at the bottom of their respective conferences, this matchup is a pure test of offensive variance. Bash looks at the 3.5-point spread and wonders if the free pick value lies with a Pelicans squad that actually holds a season sweep over the Pacers.
The Setup: Pelicans at Pacers
The Pacers are laying 3.5 points at home against a Pelicans squad that’s limping through one of the toughest seasons in franchise history. Both teams sit at 15th in their respective conferences—New Orleans at 10-33, Indiana at 9-32—and the total is set at 238.5, which tells you everything about how the market expects this game to play out. This isn’t a defensive slugfest. This is two undermanned rosters playing fast, leaking points, and creating variance. The line exists because Indiana has home court and slightly better health, but the spread is narrow enough that it’s begging you to ask whether that’s actually worth laying the points.
The Pelicans just scraped past Brooklyn 116-113 behind Trey Murphy III’s 34 points and Zion Williamson’s 25. The Pacers, meanwhile, got torched by Toronto 115-101 at home. Neither team is built to stop anyone right now, and with the total this inflated, the question isn’t whether points get scored—it’s whether Indiana can generate enough separation over 48 minutes to justify this number.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: New Orleans Pelicans (10-33) at Indiana Pacers (9-32)
Date: Friday, January 16, 2026
Time: 7:00 ET
Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
TV: Home: FanDuel SN IN | Away: GCSEN, Pelicans.com, NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (Everygame):
- Spread: Indiana Pacers -3.5 (-110) | New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Indiana Pacers -159 | New Orleans Pelicans +128
- Total: Over 238.5 (-110) | Under 238.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is giving Indiana a field goal and the hook at home, and it’s not because the Pacers are some dominant force. They’re 7-16 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse this season, which means home court hasn’t meant much. But New Orleans is 3-15 on the road, and that’s the kind of split that moves numbers. The Pelicans are without Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones, and Jose Alvarado—three rotation pieces who would typically help stabilize possessions and provide defensive resistance. Indiana is missing Bennedict Mathurin and Obi Toppin, but they still have Pascal Siakam averaging 23.6 points per game and Andrew Nembhard distributing at 7.1 assists per game.
The total at 238.5 is the real tell here. The market expects this game to fly. Neither team has the personnel to consistently get stops, and both are playing with shortened rotations due to injury. When you’ve got two teams this depleted, possessions get chaotic, transition opportunities increase, and scoring efficiency becomes less about scheme and more about who can convert open looks. The line is narrow because the Pacers haven’t proven they can put teams away at home, but it’s still favoring Indiana because the Pelicans’ road struggles are legitimate and their defensive absences are glaring.
Pelicans Breakdown: What You Need to Know
New Orleans is leaning heavily on Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III, who are both averaging over 22 points per game. Murphy just dropped 34 against Brooklyn, and Zion added 25 in that same win. The problem is consistency. The Pelicans are 10-33 because they can’t string together defensive possessions, and without Herbert Jones—who would typically guard the opponent’s best perimeter player—they’re vulnerable on that end. Jordan Poole is chipping in 15.2 points per game, but he’s not the kind of creator who can consistently manufacture high-efficiency looks in halfcourt sets.
The absence of Jose Alvarado removes their best on-ball pest, and without Dejounte Murray, the Pelicans are relying on rookie Jeremiah Fears to run the point. That’s a lot of responsibility for a first-year player in a road environment. The Pelicans can score in spurts, especially when Zion gets downhill and Murphy gets hot from three, but their 3-15 road record reflects an inability to execute consistently away from home. They’re playing fast out of necessity, which creates variance, but it also means they’re giving up easy looks in transition.
Pacers Breakdown: The Other Side
Indiana’s season has been a disaster, but Pascal Siakam remains a steady force. He’s averaging 23.6 points and 6.9 rebounds, and he’s one of the few players on this roster who can create his own shot in the halfcourt. Andrew Nembhard is distributing at a high level with 7.1 assists per game, and that playmaking becomes critical when you’re missing Bennedict Mathurin’s 17.8 points per game. Mathurin’s absence removes a secondary scorer who could take pressure off Siakam, and without Obi Toppin, the Pacers are thinner in the frontcourt.
The Pacers are 7-16 at home, which means Gainbridge Fieldhouse hasn’t been a fortress. They just lost to Toronto by 14 at home, and that game exposed their inability to defend in transition and control the pace. Indiana’s best path to covering this number is to lean on Siakam’s scoring, push the tempo, and hope that New Orleans’ depleted backcourt can’t keep up. The Pacers have the personnel advantage with Nembhard healthy and Siakam playing at a high level, but their home record suggests they struggle to close out games even when they have the talent edge.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in transition and on the margins. Both teams are going to push pace because neither has the defensive personnel to consistently force halfcourt sets. The total at 238.5 implies roughly 119 points per side, and that’s realistic given how both teams defend. New Orleans is without their best perimeter defenders in Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado, which means Indiana should get clean looks for Siakam and open threes for their shooters. The Pelicans, meanwhile, will look to attack in transition with Zion and let Murphy hunt threes off the catch.
The possession math matters here. If this game hits 100 possessions—which is likely given the pace both teams play—then the difference between covering and not covering comes down to two or three extra makes. Indiana’s advantage is having Andrew Nembhard to organize the offense and Pascal Siakam to close possessions. New Orleans’ advantage is having two high-level scorers in Zion and Murphy who can create their own offense without needing perfect structure. The spread at 3.5 is asking whether Indiana can generate enough separation over 48 minutes to win by at least four, and that’s a tough ask for a team that’s 7-16 at home.
The key is whether the Pacers can limit Zion’s paint touches and force the Pelicans into contested threes. If Zion gets downhill consistently, he’s going to draw fouls and create easy looks. If Murphy gets hot from three, this game stays close. Indiana needs to control the pace without turning the ball over, and they need Siakam to be efficient in the halfcourt. The team that executes in the final five minutes will cover, and that’s where New Orleans’ road struggles become a real factor.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking the Pelicans +3.5. This line is asking me to trust a Pacers team that’s 7-16 at home to beat a Pelicans squad by at least four points, and I don’t see it. New Orleans has the two best offensive players on the floor in Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III, and they just showed they can win on the road against Brooklyn. The Pelicans are 3-15 away from home, but this matchup sets up well for them to stay competitive. Indiana is missing Bennedict Mathurin, who would normally provide secondary scoring, and their home court advantage hasn’t translated into consistent results.
The total at 238.5 tells you this game is going to be high-variance, and in a pace-up environment with two undermanned rosters, the team getting points has the edge. The Pelicans can score enough to hang around, and if Murphy gets hot or Zion dominates the paint, this game stays within a possession or two. The risk is that Indiana’s superior depth wears down New Orleans late, but I’ll take that chance with 3.5 points in my pocket.
BASH’S BEST BET: Pelicans +3.5 for 2 units.
