The Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder return to Paycom Center tonight to host a struggling New Orleans Pelicans squad. With the Thunder laying 14.5 points, our betting preview analyzes the massive efficiency gap and the ATS pick for this lopsided Tuesday night matchup.
The Thunder are laying 14.5 points at home against a Pelicans squad that’s circling the drain at 12-36. Oklahoma City sits at 37-10, leading the Western Conference, and they’re 20-4 at Paycom Center. New Orleans comes in at 5-17 on the road. This isn’t a case where the market overreacted—this is a case where the spread accurately reflects the talent gap, the efficiency chasm, and the situational reality of a bottom-feeder visiting an elite team.
The line exists at 14.5 because that’s what happens when the league’s best team hosts one of its worst. But here’s what matters for handicapping purposes: Can the Pelicans stay competitive enough to keep this within two possessions in the fourth quarter? Or does Oklahoma City’s depth and efficiency create separation that turns this into a blowout by the middle of the third?
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 27, 2026, 8:00 ET
Location: Paycom Center
TV: FanDuel SN OK (Home), GCSEN, Pelicans.com, NBA League Pass (Away)
Spread: Thunder -14.5 (-110) | Pelicans +14.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Thunder -1009 | Pelicans +606
Total: 234.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
Oklahoma City is the top team in the conference for a reason. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 32.1 points and 6.2 assists per game, and he’s surrounded by legitimate two-way contributors in Jalen Williams (16.8 points, 5.6 assists) and Chet Holmgren (17.8 points, 8.6 rebounds). The Thunder aren’t just winning—they’re controlling games with elite defensive efficiency and balanced offensive execution.
New Orleans, meanwhile, is missing Dejounte Murray for the season as he continues rehabbing from a torn right Achilles. That leaves the backcourt responsibilities to a rookie first-round pick and a rotation that’s been unable to generate consistent offense or defensive stops. The Pelicans are 12-36 for a reason, and their 5-17 road record tells you everything about their ability to compete away from home.
The market isn’t being aggressive here—it’s being accurate. The Thunder are 20-4 at home, and when you factor in the Pelicans’ inability to defend or execute in hostile environments, a double-digit spread makes sense. The question isn’t whether Oklahoma City should be favored by this much. The question is whether New Orleans can keep it close enough to avoid a 20-point deficit by halftime.
New Orleans Pelicans Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Pelicans are leaning heavily on Trey Murphy III (22.2 points, 6.0 rebounds) and Zion Williamson (22.0 points, 6.0 rebounds) to carry the offensive load. Both players showed up in Sunday’s win over San Antonio, with Williamson and Saddiq Bey each posting 24 points and 10 rebounds. But here’s the problem: New Orleans squandered a 20-point lead in that game before barely holding on for a 104-95 victory. San Antonio went on a 24-5 run to open the fourth quarter, and the Pelicans had to scramble to avoid a complete collapse.
That’s the reality of this roster. They can generate offense in spurts, but they lack the defensive discipline and depth to sustain leads or weather runs from competent opponents. On the road, where they’re 5-17, those weaknesses get magnified. The absence of Murray means there’s no veteran floor general to steady the offense in crunch time, and the rookie point guard is learning on the fly against playoff-caliber competition.
Saddiq Bey adds 15.9 points and 5.7 rebounds, but beyond the top three scorers, New Orleans doesn’t have the rotation depth to match up with Oklahoma City’s balanced attack. This is a team that’s been outclassed for most of the season, and nothing about their recent performance suggests they’re ready to flip the script on the road against the conference leader.
Oklahoma City Thunder Breakdown: The Other Side
The Thunder just lost to Toronto 103-101 on Sunday, snapping their momentum in front of a home crowd. Immanuel Quickley dropped 23 points and 11 rebounds, and the Raptors won their fourth straight. But that loss doesn’t change the underlying reality: Oklahoma City is 37-10 because they dominate on both ends of the floor. Gilgeous-Alexander had another efficient night, and the supporting cast—Williams, Holmgren—continues to execute at a high level.
Isaiah Hartenstein remains out with a right calf strain, but the Thunder have been managing without him since late December. Holmgren’s 8.6 rebounds per game anchor the interior, and Williams provides secondary playmaking that takes pressure off Gilgeous-Alexander. This is a roster built for consistency, and their 20-4 home record reflects their ability to control games at Paycom Center.
The Thunder’s depth is what separates them from teams like New Orleans. They don’t rely on one or two players to carry the load—they get contributions across the rotation, and their defensive execution forces opponents into inefficient possessions. Against a Pelicans team that struggles to generate clean looks on the road, Oklahoma City’s defensive versatility should create enough turnovers and contested shots to build a comfortable lead by the third quarter.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This comes down to whether New Orleans can avoid the kind of defensive breakdowns that allowed San Antonio to erase a 20-point lead in one quarter. The Pelicans showed they can generate offense when Williamson and Murphy are clicking, but they also showed they can’t sustain defensive intensity for four quarters. Oklahoma City won’t need a 24-5 run to take control—they’ll grind out possessions, force turnovers, and build separation through disciplined execution.
The total sits at 234.5, which suggests the market expects a relatively high-scoring game. But here’s the reality: Oklahoma City’s defensive efficiency should limit New Orleans to contested looks, and the Pelicans’ lack of depth means they’ll struggle to keep pace if the Thunder get out in transition. Gilgeous-Alexander’s ability to control tempo and generate efficient shots will be the difference, and the Pelicans don’t have the personnel to slow him down for 48 minutes.
New Orleans needs to shoot well from three and avoid turnovers to stay within striking distance. If they fall behind by double digits in the first half, their road struggles suggest they won’t have the composure or firepower to mount a sustained comeback. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, just needs to execute their system and let their talent advantage do the work.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Pelicans have shown they can compete in flashes, but their inability to sustain defensive intensity or close out games on the road makes them a risky cover candidate at 14.5 points. Oklahoma City’s depth, home-court dominance, and elite two-way execution should create enough separation to cover this number comfortably. The Thunder are 20-4 at home for a reason, and New Orleans is 5-17 on the road because they can’t hang with elite competition in hostile environments.
The risk here is that Oklahoma City takes their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter after building a comfortable lead. But given the Pelicans’ recent collapse against San Antonio and their lack of defensive discipline, I’m betting on the Thunder to control this game from start to finish.
BASH’S BEST BET: Thunder -14.5 for 2 units.
