Bash is calling the -8.5 line disrespectful to the Pelicans’ offense. Read his sharp prediction for Pelicans vs. Warriors and discover why you should fade the favorite without their MVP.
The Setup: Pelicans at Warriors
Golden State laying 8.5 points against a 3-16 Pelicans squad that’s been getting torched night after night? The books are begging you to take the Warriors and lay the chalk here. New Orleans just went to overtime against Memphis and still couldn’t close the deal, losing 133-128 in a game that exposed every defensive weakness this team has. Meanwhile, the Warriors just dropped a home game to Houston after blowing a 12-point halftime lead. So we’ve got a struggling home favorite against the league’s worst team, and Vegas is only asking for 8.5? I’ve seen this movie before, and it usually ends with the favorite winning ugly while the bad team covers because nobody respects them.
Here’s what jumps out immediately: Golden State is 6-2 at home but just 4-8 on the road. They’re a completely different animal at Chase Center, and the market knows it. But are they 8.5 points better than a Pelicans team that’s desperate for any kind of win? That’s where this gets interesting. The public’s all over Golden State here, which means we need to dig deeper into what’s really happening with these two squads.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: November 29, 2025, 8:30 ET
Location: Chase Center
Spread: Golden State Warriors -8.5 (-110) / New Orleans Pelicans +8.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Warriors -345 / Pelicans +262
Total: 224.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let’s talk about why we’re seeing 8.5 here instead of double digits. The Warriors are sitting at 10-10, which is .500 basketball, and they just lost at home to a Rockets team that had no business winning that game. Reed Sheppard dropped a career-high 31 on them, and Golden State couldn’t defend or execute down the stretch. That’s the kind of loss that sticks with a team, especially when you’re trying to figure out your identity 20 games into the season.
The Pelicans? They’re 3-16 and bleeding out. But here’s the thing—they just pushed Memphis to overtime. Jaren Jackson Jr. needed 27, Jaylen Wells added 25, and Zach Edey put up a 21-15 double-double just to escape with a win. New Orleans is competitive; they’re just not closing games. That overtime loss tells me they’re not rolling over, even if the record says otherwise.
The moneyline at -345 for Golden State is steep but not insane for a home favorite against a bottom-feeder. What’s telling is that the spread stayed at 8.5 instead of climbing to 9.5 or 10. The market’s disrespecting the Warriors here just enough to keep this number honest. They know Golden State’s been inconsistent, and they know the Pelicans have enough firepower with Zion Williamson averaging 21.8 PPG to keep games closer than the record suggests.
Sharp money knows what’s up here: this is a sandwich spot for Golden State emotionally. Coming off a brutal home loss, facing a team they should destroy, with the total set at 224.5 suggesting a higher-scoring affair. The books want you thinking blowout. I’m thinking grind-it-out cover for New Orleans.
Pelicans Breakdown: What You Need to Know
New Orleans is a dumpster fire on paper, but let’s look at what’s actually happening. Zion’s putting up 21.8 PPG with 5.4 boards, and when he’s engaged, he’s still one of the most unstoppable forces in the paint. Trey Murphy III has been their second-best player at 19.7 PPG and 6.2 RPG, but he’s questionable with a sore right elbow. That’s a massive question mark because Murphy’s their best perimeter threat and secondary scorer.
Jordan Poole’s averaging 17.3 PPG against his former team, and you know he’s going to be amped up for this one. The revenge game narrative is real, and Poole’s the type of player who lives for these moments. Jordan Hawkins is out with illness, and Karlo Matkovic is out with a calf injury, so the depth is thin.
The 1-7 road record is ugly, but context matters. They’ve been in games. That overtime loss to Memphis shows they can hang with playoff teams for 48 minutes. The problem is the fourth quarter and crunch time execution. But in a game where they’re getting 8.5 points? They don’t need to win. They just need to stay within single digits against a Warriors team that’s been wildly inconsistent.
Warriors Breakdown: The Other Side
Golden State’s got Steph Curry doing Steph Curry things at 27.9 PPG, and that’s the foundation everything else is built on. But here’s the concern: they’re 10-10 and just blew a home game to Houston. Jimmy Butler’s addition has given them 20.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 4.9 APG, which is solid two-way production, but the chemistry is still developing. Jonathan Kuminga’s questionable with knee issues, averaging 13.8 PPG and 6.6 RPG, and his absence would hurt their athleticism and defensive versatility.
The 6-2 home record looks great until you realize they just lost one of those games to a Rockets squad that erased a 12-point halftime deficit. That’s a red flag. When you’re a veteran team with championship pedigree and you’re blowing double-digit leads at home, something’s not clicking. De’Anthony Melton is out for at least two more games, and Gary Payton II is probable but dealing with an ankle issue.
This is exactly the spot where Golden State burns you. They’re coming off an embarrassing loss, facing a team they should dominate, and the line’s just under key number nine. The public sees 3-16 and thinks automatic cover. I see a team that’s been inconsistent all season being asked to blow out a squad that just went toe-to-toe with Memphis.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
The Warriors are 6-2 at Chase Center, and that home-court advantage is real. But what kind of game are we getting? The total’s set at 224.5, which suggests both teams are expected to score. Golden State wants to push pace with Curry running pick-and-rolls, while New Orleans has the athletes to run with them when Zion’s rolling downhill.
The key matchup is Zion against Golden State’s interior defense without a fully healthy Kuminga. If Zion gets going early and Poole’s hitting shots against his old team, this game stays close. The Warriors will try to extend the floor and make New Orleans defend in space, but the Pelicans have shown they can score—they just can’t stop anybody consistently.
Here’s what worries me about laying 8.5: Golden State’s been terrible at covering spreads when they’re supposed to dominate. They’re a .500 team for a reason, and that reason is inconsistency. New Orleans is 3-16, but they’re competitive. That overtime game against Memphis wasn’t a fluke—they can hang around. The question is whether Golden State has the killer instinct to step on their throat, and based on that Houston loss, I’m not convinced they do.
The pace will favor both teams scoring, which keeps it close. The Pelicans’ lack of defensive discipline means Golden State will get theirs, but New Orleans has enough offensive firepower to keep this within single digits. This feels like a 115-108 type game where the Warriors win but don’t cover.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering the Pelicans +8.5 before this number moves. This line’s a trap, plain and simple. Vegas knows something we don’t, but I’m not buying it. Golden State’s coming off a brutal home loss, they’re inconsistent as hell at 10-10, and they’re being asked to blow out a team that just pushed a good Memphis squad to overtime. The public’s all over the Warriors because they see 3-16 and think easy money.
New Orleans has covered this number in their heads before the ball’s even tipped. Zion’s motivated, Poole’s facing his old team, and they’ve got nothing to lose. The Warriors? They’re supposed to win this, which means they’ll play tight if it’s close in the fourth. Give me the points, give me the desperate team with athletes, and give me the fade on an inconsistent favorite that just blew a home game.
The Play: Pelicans +8.5 (-110) | 2 Units
Vegas wants you thinking blowout. I’m thinking backdoor cover at minimum, outright sweat at best. The market’s disrespecting New Orleans here, and that’s exactly when you take the points. Let’s cash this ticket.
