RBD breaks down playoff positioning and market movement in this late-season NBA betting spot, highlighting a key handicapping angle.
As we enter the final games of the NBA season I’m going to be a little more cautious and conservative before putting my money on a game.
Not because I want to protect the units I’ve banked so I can end the season with a profit (I do) but because handicapping is a difficult task and made even more so when there’s an added factor to be considered – which teams are still playing hard as they fight for playoff positioning, and which teams have quit on the season.
Playoff Positioning for Tonight’s Pick
The Hornets are sitting in eighth place, one game behind the Sixers who are in 7th place.
Both are battling Toronto and Atlanta to improve their positioning to a spot where they don’t have to face number one Detroit or number two Boston in the first round.
Because of this, there are no worries about either team sitting/resting their starters or just playing out the string (quitting.)
We’ll get a maximum effort out of both teams tonight.
So let’s get down to some numbers.
The line opened with Memphis as -6 Hm favs.
It’s dropped to -5′, and I expect it will get even lower.
Philadelphia is 21-12-2 ATS on the Rd.
Charlotte is 24-12 ATS at Hm.
No edges there.
In their last 10 games the 76ers are 6-4 ATS.
In their last 10 games the Hornets are 7-3.
No edges there, either.
Finding the Edge
So where can I find some numbers I can exploit?
My own handicapping models.
One of my systems for isolating teams who are the Wrong Favorite, WF1, says Philadelphia should be the Favorite tonight.
WF1 has a record of 38-44 on Rd teams.
That’s a break-even bet with juice factored in.
Again no edge.
But the Sixers qualify as one of my asterisk spots, one that has a 6-13 record on the Rd, giving me a 68% edge to Fade.
My chart showed two games this season where Philadelphia qualified as a WF1 play, and they won SU both times.
That’s offset a bit because Charlotte has been in the team to bet ON in the WF Fade once, and they covered the spread.
Back to standard stats, let’s look at H2H (Head to Head.)
Tonight’s the rubber match, the season series is split at 1-1.
Philly won at Hm way back in October, 125-121.
Charlotte took the rematch back in January, 130-93, a 37 point whooping.
Yes, Joel Embiid was out that night, and he is playing tonight, but is he worth a 37 points scoring differential in favor of Philly?
No.
And Charlotte is in Game 1 of B2B’s.
When both of the B2B’s were home games Charlotte is 3-1 ATS in Game one.
The Play
I’m riding on the 68% Asterisk Fade spot tonight and taking Charlotte.
My play:
Char (wait to buy, the number’s dropping)
Recap
Recap: 0-1
Record: 29-20
Review
I used Brook/GS in my last pick.
Needed Over 217.
The game landed on 215.
GS shot just 9/27 from three point range, but it was really Brooklyn who screwed me.
Down by three points, final seconds of the game, the Nets had the ball.
This sets up three scenarios:
One – Golden State fouls the Nets, denying them the opportunity to shoot a game tying three-pointer.
I get free throws followed by the Nets fouling Golden State for more free throws, and I get a win.
Two – the Nets take a three-pointer, miss, and I lose.
Three – up by three points, Golden State allows the Nets to charge the basket for an easy layup, knowing the two points can’t hurt them, and I get a push.
Those were the LIKELY scenarios.
What happened was that for the third game in the past week a team didn’t even get a shot off and cost me a chance at banking a unit.
Even worse, TWO of the teams are in the NBA.
I mean, I expect it from the kids, but from the guys that are supposed to be pros???
As Jed Clampett would say, “Pit-i-ful.”
College Update
I nailed my last two plays, using two subcategories that had perfect records at 0-8 and 0-7.
The two W’s cut my deficit in half.
Down 6 units to start the week I set what I thought to be an admirable goal, to cut it in half and get down to just minus three units.
I’ve won three games in a row and hit my goal.
And that might be where my season ends.
The 0-8 and 0-7 spots both had plays last night but any experienced sports better knows, hell anyone with common sense knows, that no stat stays perfect.
So I didn’t play last night’s spots and they split 1-1, saving me some juice.
I’ll keep ‘capping, but with the limited number of games left I might be done for the season.
Side Note
Side note – the UFL season started last night.
I correctly picked the winner but laid five and they only won by two. But I came away undamaged because I nailed the Under.
I’ll have at least one play today, check the PredictEm Forum for the pick!
