RBD breaks down the Phoenix vs Boston matchup using his T1 and T2 betting models, pointing to a strong total betting angle supported by multiple handicapping indicators.
My T1 Over spot has lost three in a row after an 0-2 Sunday night.
Wisely, I knew that with Joel Embiid out I should lay off the spot calling for an Over in the Philadelphia game. And it stayed Under.
But I took the GS/NY game and lost by two points.
Blame it on the Knicks for going just 3-16 on three pointers in the first quarter.
Or blame it on the Warriors, for following up a solid 35 point Q1 with just 19 points in Q2.
Or blame it on me, for not buying it early enough and getting the opening line at 216, which would have been a winner.
After three straight losses maybe Reversion Towards the Mean is starting to set in.
But I’ll ride it again tonight.
T1 and T2 Model Match
T1 says Phoenix at Boston goes Over.
T1 is still a solid 45-26, 63%.
The game also qualifies as a T2 Over which is now at the break-even mark, 58-53.
But, when I get a match, when a game qualifies as a play for both models, the record is 10-6, 62%.
And the game qualifies for the subcategory that is 30-16, 65%.
So there’s four solid stats saying tonight’s game goes Over.
Team-Specific Numbers
But those are all league-wide stats.
I like what I see when I dig deeper and go to team specific stats.
The Suns are break even at 3-3 but Boston is a solid 4-1.
And, Phoenix is playing in Game one of B2B’s.
They’re 6-5 in this spot, another slight edge to the Over.
The only negative stat I see is that since Tatum came back into the lineup, Boston games have stayed Under in four of five games (which may be why today’s opening number of 219 has already been bet down to 213′.)
But three of those five games were on the Rd; they’re 1-1 Ov/Un at Hm.
The Suns are on the Rd tonight, their fourth straight away from home.
The last three away games saw totals of 237, 231, and 243.
Those numbers look good for a high scoring game tonight.
The open number has already dropped 5′ points.
I think the chance of a buyback is greater than the line continuing to drop so I’ll buy this one now.
My play
Phx/Bos Ov 213′
Recap
Recap: 0-1
Record: 27-18, 60%
Review
New York goes 3-16, 18%, on three pointers in the first quarter.
And I knew that was going to come back to bite me on the ass at the end of the game.
From an article last week:
“The Bearcats have the ball.
Shot clock turned off.
They hold for the last shot.
There are only two possibilities, right?
They shoot and miss and the game goes into OT, or they shoot, score, and win the game.
Wrong.
There is a third possibility.
The game clock runs out and they don’t even get a shot off.”
And last night, Deja Vu.
I need 219.
Warriors and Knicks are at 217.
Knicks up, 210-207.
Warriors are inbounding the ball with under 10 seconds left.
They’ll either shoot a three-pointer and tie the score which will give me the Over, or they’ll miss and I’ll lose.
Or maybe New York will foul them, denying them the tying 3-pointer, put them on the line for two, then GS will foul the Knicks and I can get free throws to get my Over.
Or…
Deja Vu – the Warriors won’t even get a shot off, JUST LIKE the COLLEGE KIDS.
And that’s what happened, didn’t even get the shot.
Game opened at 216, had I bought the opening number I would have had a winner.
Gotta get my handicapping done earlier.
