Phoenix Suns (11-2) -5, o/u 228 at Golden State Warriors (5-7), 10:30 pm Eastern Monday
by Zman of Predictem.com
The two highest-scoring teams in the league will run the floor Monday night when the Phoenix Suns take on the Golden State Warriors in Oakland.
NBA sportsbooks currently list the Suns as 5 point road chalk for Monday’s game, with one of the highest totals 228 listed on a league game so far this season. Also, Phoenix is listed at anywhere from -200 to -280 on the various Vegas moneylines, with GS getting from +185 to +220 as home underdogs.
Phoenix, which is putting up better than 108 points per game so far this season, has won eight straight games after beating the Los Angeles Clippers 113-94 last Friday. Meanwhile, Golden State, which is averaging 107 points a night, won in overtime in Philadelphia Saturday 100-98 to cap off a 4-1 East Coast road trip.
So through the weekend’s action, the Suns lead the Pacific Division by four games over the second-place Los Angeles Lakers and 5 games over the fourth-place Warriors.
Phoenix took three of four games from Golden State last season, and three of four from the Warriors the season previous. But GS managed to outrebound the Suns in three of those four games last season, and covered the spread three times. Also, the o/u went 3-1 in last season’s meetings, which averaged 227 total points per.
This season, the Suns rank 4th in the league in scoring differential at +7.9, 3rd in FG shooting at 49%, 8th in 3-point shooting at 78%, 4th in A/TO ratio at 1.8 and 13th in FG defense at 44%.
The Warriors rank 16th in scoring differential at -2.5, 13th in shooting at 45% but a dismal 29th in FT shooting at 68%. Golden State also ranks 6th in A/TO ratio at 1.67, but 29th in FG defense at 48%.
Statistically speaking, these are also the two worst rebounding teams in the league. Phoenix gets outrebounded, on average, by 5.3 per game, while the Warriors are getting outboarded by 6.6 per game.
The Suns are 7-6 against the spread this season, 6-1 straight up but 3-4 ATS on the road, as favorites every game.
Golden State is 5-7 vs. the numbers this season, just 1-4 straight up and 2-3 ATS at home, where they are also 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS as home dogs.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com ranks Phoenix 7th at 94.6, the Warriors 15th at 88.7.
The o/u is 6-7 in Suns games this season, which are averaging 209 points per, while the totals are 8-4 in GS games, which are averaging 217 points.
Zman’s Pick: The Warriors still don’t have it together. Take the Suns at -5.
