The East’s top team is getting points on the road. We analyze the Heat’s home dominance vs. the Pistons’ elite record to deliver our high-value ATS pick for the November 29th slate.
The Setup: Pistons at Heat
The books are giving us Detroit +3.5 against a Miami squad that’s been living off home cooking, and I’m not buying the market’s disrespect of the Pistons here. Detroit rolls into the Kaseya Center with a 15-4 record and the top spot in the Eastern Conference, while Miami sits at 13-6 in third. Yeah, the Heat are 9-1 at home, but let me tell you something—this Detroit team isn’t your typical road underdog. They’re 7-2 on the road this season, and when you’ve got Cade Cunningham averaging 28.8 points and 9.4 assists per game, you’re dangerous anywhere you play.
The market wants you to think Miami’s home dominance makes this an easy fade of the Pistons. Sharp money knows what’s up here—Detroit is the real deal, not some pretender getting inflated by a soft schedule. This is exactly the spot where the public overvalues home court and undervalues a legitimate contender that’s proven they can win on the road. I’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t end well for the team laying points against a conference leader playing this well.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: November 29, 2025, 8:00 ET
Location: Kaseya Center
Spread: Detroit Pistons +3.5 (-110) | Miami Heat -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Pistons +128 | Heat -156
Total: Over/Under 239.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The books are begging you to take Detroit here, and I know that sounds counterintuitive when I’m about to tell you to do exactly that. But hear me out—this number smells like Miami’s home record is doing all the heavy lifting. The Heat are 9-1 at the Kaseya Center, and that’s real. But what’s also real is that Detroit has the best record in the conference and they’re matching Miami’s road performance at 7-2 away from home.
Look at the offensive firepower we’re talking about. Cade Cunningham is putting up 28.8 points per game with elite playmaking at 9.4 assists. Jalen Duren is a double-double machine at 19.5 points and 11.8 rebounds. This isn’t some one-man show that Miami can scheme away. Meanwhile, Miami’s got Tyler Herro at 26.5 points per game and Norman Powell adding 24.5 points, but Powell’s dealing with a groin issue and is only probable for this one.
The line exists at 3.5 because the public sees Miami’s home dominance and assumes it’s automatic. But the market’s disrespecting Detroit’s legitimate elite status. When you’re the number one seed in the East with a 15-4 record, you don’t just roll over for 3.5 points because you’re playing in a hostile environment. This Pistons team has already proven they can handle business on the road, and getting more than a field goal against them feels like found money.
Detroit Pistons Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Let me tell you about this Detroit squad—they’re not just winning games, they’re dominating the Eastern Conference with a 15-4 record that puts them at the top of the standings. The Cunningham-Duren combination is lethal, giving you elite scoring, playmaking, and interior presence all in one package.
Cunningham is the engine here, and at 28.8 points and 9.4 assists per game, he’s playing like a legitimate MVP candidate. The kid can score from all three levels, and his court vision means Detroit’s offense flows through him with purpose. When he’s cooking, this team is nearly impossible to stop.
Then you’ve got Duren cleaning up inside with 19.5 points and 11.8 boards per game. That rebounding number is massive because it means Detroit controls possessions and gets second-chance opportunities. Tobias Harris adds veteran stability at 14.1 points per game, giving them a reliable third option when defenses key on Cunningham.
The injury report is clean except for Bobi Klintman and Marcus Sasser, neither of whom are rotation players. Detroit’s core is healthy and rolling. That 7-2 road record isn’t a fluke—this team travels well and doesn’t get intimidated by hostile environments. Coming off a tough loss to Orlando where they competed hard, Detroit’s got the motivation to prove they’re legitimate title contenders.
Miami Heat Breakdown: The Other Side
Miami’s 13-6 record looks solid at third in the East, but that 9-1 home versus 4-5 road split tells you everything you need to know about this team. They’re a completely different animal at the Kaseya Center compared to when they travel, and that’s both their strength and their vulnerability.
Tyler Herro is balling out at 26.5 points per game, and when Norman Powell adds his 24.5 points, Miami’s got legitimate firepower. Bam Adebayo anchors everything with 19.2 points and 8.4 rebounds, giving them the defensive versatility to switch and protect the rim. That trio is formidable, especially at home where they’ve found their rhythm.
But here’s the concern—Powell’s dealing with a groin issue and is only probable, while Andrew Wiggins has a hip problem and Jaime Jaquez Jr. is questionable with a groin injury. That’s three rotation players with question marks heading into a matchup against the conference’s best team. Even if Powell plays, is he going to be at full strength guarding Cunningham or chasing around Detroit’s shooters all night?
Miami just beat Milwaukee 106-103 in their last game, with Herro dropping 29 and Adebayo posting a double-double. But that was a grind-it-out game against a Bucks team that’s been inconsistent. Detroit presents a different challenge entirely—they’re playing at an elite level with multiple weapons and a legitimate star in Cunningham who can take over games.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Miami’s home-court advantage can overcome Detroit’s superior talent and record. The Heat are 9-1 at home for a reason—Erik Spoelstra is a master at maximizing home-court energy, and that building gets loud. But Detroit’s 7-2 road record shows they don’t wilt under pressure.
The Cunningham versus Herro matchup is fascinating because both guys are primary offensive engines for their teams. Cunningham’s got the size and playmaking advantage at 9.4 assists per game, while Herro’s pure scoring at 26.5 points keeps Miami in games. The difference is Cunningham makes everyone around him better, while Herro is more score-first.
In the paint, Duren’s 11.8 rebounds per game versus Adebayo’s 8.4 boards could be the deciding factor. If Detroit controls the glass, they’ll get extra possessions and wear down Miami’s defense. Adebayo’s the better defender, but Duren’s size and athleticism give him the edge on the offensive boards.
The injury situation tilts this toward Detroit. If Powell’s not 100% or Jaquez can’t go, Miami’s depth takes a hit against a Detroit team that’s fully healthy in their rotation. The Pistons can go deeper without sacrificing quality, and in a tight game down the stretch, that matters.
Miami’s 9-1 home record is impressive, but they haven’t faced a team playing at Detroit’s level this season. The Pistons are battle-tested, they’ve won on the road against quality opponents, and they’ve got the star power to match Miami’s home-court advantage. Getting 3.5 points with the conference’s best team feels like the books are daring us to take the obvious play.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering this number before it moves. Give me the Detroit Pistons +3.5 with confidence, and I’m putting 2 units on this play. The market’s disrespecting a 15-4 team that’s proven they can win anywhere, and I’m not falling for the trap of overvaluing Miami’s home record against inferior competition.
Detroit’s got the better record, the better road performance, and the best player on the court in Cunningham. Miami’s dealing with injury concerns, and even at full strength, I’m not convinced they’re better than a Pistons team that’s sitting atop the Eastern Conference for a reason. This line should be closer to 1.5 or 2, and we’re getting an extra point or two because the public loves backing home favorites.
The sharp play is taking the points with the better team. Detroit wins this game straight up, but even if Miami squeaks out a victory, we’re covered with 3.5 points of cushion. This is exactly the kind of spot where the Pistons prove they’re legitimate contenders and not just a hot team riding a lucky streak. The books are begging you to take Miami at home—I’m going the other way and sleeping easy knowing I’ve got the best team and the points. Pistons +3.5, and it’s not even close.
