Detroit leads the NBA in adjusted efficiency, and tonight’s prediction hinges on a massive statistical gulf. With the Pelicans allowing 122.2 points per game, Cade Cunningham’s 9.8 assists per game should dominate a New Orleans defense missing its primary perimeter stoppers.
The Setup: Pistons at Pelicans
Detroit is laying 9.5 points in New Orleans on Wednesday night, and the spread tells you everything about where these teams stand. The Pistons arrive at 31-10, sitting atop the Eastern Conference with the league’s best record. The Pelicans limp in at 10-35, anchored to the bottom of the West at 15th. This isn’t a trap game or a scheduling spot that flips the script—it’s a talent and efficiency mismatch that the market has priced correctly. Detroit just knocked off Boston 104-103 behind Tobias Harris’s 25 points, proving they can win tight possessions against elite competition. New Orleans got boat-raced by Houston 119-110, with the Rockets pulling away late despite Jabari Smith Jr. dropping 32. The question isn’t whether Detroit should be favored—it’s whether this number is too low given the Pelicans’ defensive leakage and injury situation.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 21, 2026, 8:00 ET
Venue: Smoothie King Center
TV Network: Home: GCSEN, Pelicans.com | Away: FanDuel SN DET, NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Pistons -9.5 (-110) | Pelicans +9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Pistons -417 | Pelicans +309
- Total: Over 233.5 (-110) | Under 233.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on 9.5 because Detroit’s offensive structure and depth should overwhelm a Pelicans team missing key rotation pieces. Cade Cunningham is averaging 25.7 points and 9.8 assists, running an offense that generates quality looks possession after possession. Jalen Duren adds 17.8 points and 10.7 rebounds, giving Detroit interior dominance that New Orleans can’t match consistently. The Pistons are 13-6 on the road, proving they travel well and don’t fold in hostile environments—though calling the Smoothie King Center hostile for a 10-35 team is generous.
New Orleans counters with Zion Williamson’s 22.5 points and Trey Murphy III’s 22.2 points, but the supporting cast thins out quickly. Dejounte Murray remains out after tearing his right Achilles, robbing the Pelicans of a primary ball-handler and perimeter defender. Herbert Jones is questionable with a sprain after missing seven straight games, and Jose Alvarado is out with left oblique soreness. That’s three rotation players who either aren’t playing or might not suit up, leaving rookie Jeremiah Fears handling point guard duties against Cunningham. The talent disparity explains the spread, but the injury situation makes it feel light when you consider how many possessions will tilt Detroit’s way simply due to personnel advantages.
Pistons Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Detroit’s offense runs through Cunningham’s playmaking, and he’s putting together an All-NBA caliber season with 9.8 assists per game. That usage creates open looks for Harris, who just dropped 25 against Boston, and Duren, who’s been a nightly double-double threat at 10.7 boards per contest. The Pistons don’t rely on one scoring option—they spread possessions across multiple threats, which makes them difficult to scheme against over 48 minutes.
The road splits matter here. Detroit is 13-6 away from home, showing they don’t need crowd energy or familiar rims to execute. That discipline translates to covering numbers, especially against bottom-tier competition that can’t match their efficiency on both ends. Caris LeVert is questionable after being under the weather, but his absence wouldn’t crater the rotation—he’s averaging just 5.4 points over the last five games in limited minutes. Marcus Sasser or Jaden Ivey would soak up those possessions without drastically altering Detroit’s offensive flow.
Pelicans Breakdown: The Other Side
New Orleans lives and dies with Zion’s paint dominance, but even his 22.5 points and 5.8 rebounds haven’t been enough to lift a roster depleted by injuries. Trey Murphy III has stepped up with 22.2 points and 6.1 boards, giving the Pelicans a second scoring option, but the drop-off after those two is steep. Saddiq Bey chips in 15.1 points, but he’s not creating his own offense consistently enough to punish mismatches.
The home/road splits tell the story of a broken team. New Orleans is 7-18 at home, meaning the Smoothie King Center provides zero edge. They’re 3-17 on the road, which is even worse, but the point is this team doesn’t defend, doesn’t close games, and doesn’t have the depth to hang with elite competition. Murray’s absence eliminates perimeter creation, and if Jones sits again, the defensive rotations become even more porous. Alvarado’s oblique issue keeps him out, removing another backcourt option who could at least pressure the ball. This is a team playing out the string, and the market knows it.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and in transition. Duren’s 10.7 rebounds per game should dominate the glass against a Pelicans frontcourt that lacks size and discipline. Every extra possession Detroit generates off offensive boards extends their efficiency advantage, and over 95-100 possessions, that adds up to a wider margin than 9.5 points. Cunningham’s 9.8 assists will carve up New Orleans’ perimeter defense, especially if Jones can’t go. The Pelicans don’t have anyone who can consistently stay in front of Cunningham or disrupt his passing lanes, which means Detroit will generate quality looks possession after possession.
New Orleans needs Zion to get downhill early and Murphy to hit from deep, but even if both perform, the Pelicans don’t have the defensive infrastructure to slow Detroit’s balanced attack. Harris averaging 13.7 points as the third option shows how deep this Pistons roster runs, and that depth wears down undermanned opponents in the second half. The total sits at 233.5, which feels reasonable given Detroit’s ability to control pace and New Orleans’ inability to get consistent stops. But the spread is where the value lives—Detroit should win this game by double digits if they execute even 80% of their offensive possessions cleanly.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the number with Detroit. The Pistons are 31-10 for a reason—they defend, they share the ball, and they don’t beat themselves with turnovers or mental lapses. New Orleans is missing multiple rotation players, and even at full strength, they’re 7-18 at home. That’s not a team that defends home court. Cunningham and Duren should control the game from start to finish, and the talent gap is wide enough that Detroit covers even if they cruise in the fourth quarter.
The risk is Detroit getting comfortable and letting New Orleans hang around late, but even in that scenario, the Pistons have shown they can close tight games—they just beat Boston by one on Monday. This spread accounts for a competitive game, but the reality is New Orleans doesn’t have the personnel to make this competitive for 48 minutes. Detroit wins by 12-15 if they stay disciplined.
BASH’S BEST BET: Pistons -9.5 for 2 units.
Detroit’s efficiency and depth should overwhelm a Pelicans roster that’s running on fumes. This number feels light given the injury situation and talent disparity. Take the Pistons and don’t overthink it.
