he Toronto Raptors visit Boston as 8.5-point underdogs, and with Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes both ruled out, our ATS pick evaluates if Jaylen Brown’s MVP-caliber season can cover the heavy spread at TD Garden.
The Setup: Raptors at Celtics
The Celtics are laying 8.5 points at TD Garden against a Raptors team that just pulled off a buzzer-beater win in Charlotte, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Boston sits at 23-13, they’re at home, and Toronto is dealing with some serious injury uncertainty. But here’s the thing — when you start factoring in what Boston looks like without Jayson Tatum, and what Toronto’s core pieces have been doing this season, that 8.5-point margin starts to feel stretched. The Celtics are leaning heavily on Jaylen Brown’s 29.7 points per game, and while he’s been excellent, asking this roster to cover nearly nine points against a 23-15 Raptors squad that’s been competitive on the road feels like the market is pricing in a version of Boston that doesn’t exist right now. Let me walk you through why this line exists, and why I think there’s value on the other side.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 9, 2026, 7:00 ET
Venue: TD Garden
Spread: Boston Celtics -8.5 (-110) | Toronto Raptors +8.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Boston Celtics -345 | Toronto Raptors +268
Total: Over/Under 224.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is giving Boston 8.5 points for a few obvious reasons. They’re the higher-seeded team at 23-13 versus Toronto’s 23-15, they’re at home where they’ve gone 11-6 this season, and the Raptors are walking into TD Garden with Brandon Ingram questionable due to a sprained thumb on his shooting hand. That’s a legitimate 21.8 points per game potentially missing from Toronto’s offense. Add in the fact that Scottie Barnes is also questionable with a knee issue, and you can see why the oddsmakers pushed this number into the 8-9 point range.
But once you dig into the matchup data, you start seeing the cracks. Boston is without Jayson Tatum, who’s been out and isn’t expected back anytime soon. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts. Tatum’s absence fundamentally changes what Boston can do offensively, and while Jaylen Brown has stepped up with nearly 30 points per game, the supporting cast of Derrick White (18.4 PPG) and Payton Pritchard (16.9 PPG) isn’t the same level of depth you’d need to confidently lay 8.5 against a legitimate playoff team. Toronto is 11-7 on the road this season, which means they’ve been more than competitive away from home. The Celtics are 11-6 at TD Garden, which is solid but not dominant enough to justify this kind of spread against a team that’s proven they can win in hostile environments.
Toronto Raptors Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Raptors are dealing with some injury uncertainty, but their core has been productive all season. RJ Barrett is averaging 19.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.5 assists, and he just dropped 28 points in that comeback win over Charlotte. Scottie Barnes has been their most complete player at 19.1 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 5.2 assists, giving them versatility on both ends. If Brandon Ingram can’t go, that’s a significant loss at 21.8 points per game, but this team has shown they can win without perfect health — they just did it against the Hornets.
The bigger issue is the absence of Jakob Poeltl, who’s out and won’t return until after this game. Losing your starting center impacts rim protection and rebounding, which could be a problem against Boston’s size. But Toronto’s perimeter depth with guys like Ja’Kobe Walter, Ochai Agbaji, and Gradey Dick gives them options if they need to go smaller and faster. At 23-15, this is a team that’s been competitive all season, and their 11-7 road record tells you they don’t fold when they leave home. That matters when you’re getting 8.5 points.
Boston Celtics Breakdown: The Other Side
Boston’s offense runs through Jaylen Brown right now, and he’s been exceptional at 29.7 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game. Derrick White has been steady at 18.4 points and 5.3 assists, and Payton Pritchard has provided a spark off the bench with 16.9 points and 5.2 assists. That’s a solid top three, but here’s the thing — without Tatum, this team doesn’t have the same offensive firepower to blow teams out. They just lost to Denver 114-110 at home, and while the Nuggets are a quality opponent, that game showed how much Boston struggles to put teams away when they don’t have their full arsenal.
The Celtics are 11-6 at TD Garden, which is good but not great. They’re not a team that consistently dominates at home this season, and asking them to cover 8.5 against a 23-15 team without their second-best player feels like a stretch. Defensively, they’re solid, but Toronto has enough offensive weapons to keep this game within single digits, especially if Barnes plays and Barrett continues his recent form. I keep coming back to this efficiency gap — Boston is good, but they’re not nine points better than Toronto in this spot.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Boston can generate enough offense without Tatum to pull away from a Raptors team that’s been scrappy all season. Toronto’s 11-7 road record tells you they’re comfortable playing in tough environments, and their recent win in Charlotte showed they can execute in crunch time. If Scottie Barnes plays, he gives them a legitimate two-way threat who can guard multiple positions and create offense. If Brandon Ingram is out, that hurts, but RJ Barrett has proven he can carry the load — he just put up 28 against the Hornets.
Boston’s advantage is at home, and Jaylen Brown is capable of taking over games. But when you do the math over 96 possessions, asking this Celtics roster to win by nine or more without Tatum feels like too much. The main risk here is that Toronto’s injuries pile up and they can’t generate enough offense to stay within the number. But even with Ingram questionable, this roster has enough depth to keep it competitive. Toronto doesn’t need to win this game outright — they just need to stay within 8.5 points, and I think they can do that against a Boston team that’s missing its second star.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Toronto Raptors +8.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. Boston is a good team, but without Jayson Tatum, they’re not a team that should be laying 8.5 points against a 23-15 Raptors squad that’s 11-7 on the road. Toronto just won in Charlotte on a buzzer-beater, and even if Brandon Ingram sits, RJ Barrett and Scottie Barnes give them enough firepower to stay competitive. The Celtics are 11-6 at home, which is solid but not dominant, and they just lost to Denver in this building. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests. The main risk is Toronto’s injuries catching up to them, but even in a worst-case scenario, I think they keep this within single digits. Give me the Raptors plus the points.
